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| Open AccessGhost roads and the destruction of Asia-Pacific tropical forests
An effort to map roads in the Asia-Pacific region finds that there are 3.0–6.6 times more roads than other sources suggest, and that unmapped ‘ghost roads’ are a major contributor to tropical forest loss.
- Jayden E. Engert
- , Mason J. Campbell
- & William F. Laurance
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| Open AccessFSC-certified forest management benefits large mammals compared to non-FSC
Camera-trap images of 55 mammal species in 14 logging concessions in western equatorial Africa reveal greater animal encounter rates in FSC-certified than in non-certified forests, especially for large mammals and species of high conservation priority.
- Joeri A. Zwerts
- , E. H. M. Sterck
- & Marijke van Kuijk
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| Open AccessGlobal prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds
Artificial intelligence-based forecasting improves the reliability of predicting extreme flood events in ungauged watersheds, with predictions at five days lead time that are as good as current systems are for same-day predictions.
- Grey Nearing
- , Deborah Cohen
- & Yossi Matias
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US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements
We integrate approximately one million aerial site measurements into regional emissions inventories for six regions in the USA, finding methane emission intensities that vary by more than a factor of ten.
- Evan D. Sherwin
- , Jeffrey S. Rutherford
- & Adam R. Brandt
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| Open AccessDisappearing cities on US coasts
High-resolution vertical land motion and elevation datasets combined with projections of sea-level rise of 32 major US coastal cities shows that a considerable amount of land area, population, and properties are threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050.
- Leonard O. Ohenhen
- , Manoochehr Shirzaei
- & Robert J. Nicholls
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| Open AccessSatellite mapping reveals extensive industrial activity at sea
Satellite imagery, vessel GPS data and deep-learning models are used to map industrial fishing vessel activities missing from public tracking systems and changes in offshore energy infrastructure in the world’s coastal waters during 2017–2021.
- Fernando S. Paolo
- , David Kroodsma
- & Patrick Halpin
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Country-specific net-zero strategies of the pulp and paper industry
A bottom-up assessment of the net greenhouse gas emissions of the pulp and paper industries of 30 countries from 1961 to 2019 leads to country-specific strategies to achieve net zero by 2050.
- Min Dai
- , Mingxing Sun
- & Yutao Wang
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A unified explanation for the morphology of raised peatlands
Physical analysis of processes universal to raised peatlands produces an equation that explains their morphology and carbon storage across biomes, from Alaska to New Zealand.
- Alexander R. Cobb
- , René Dommain
- & Charles F. Harvey
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| Open AccessPesticide use negatively affects bumble bees across European landscapes
Results from 316 Bombus terrestris colonies at 106 agricultural sites across eight European countries find pesticides in bumble bee pollen to be associated with reduced colony performance, especially in areas of intensive agriculture.
- Charlie C. Nicholson
- , Jessica Knapp
- & Maj Rundlöf
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| Open AccessHigh-resolution maps show that rubber causes substantial deforestation
Satellite data used to generate high-resolution maps across Southeast Asia show that rubber-related deforestation is at least twofold to threefold higher than suggested by estimates used for setting policy.
- Yunxia Wang
- , Peter M. Hollingsworth
- & Antje Ahrends
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The contribution of wildfire to PM2.5 trends in the USA
Ground- and satellite-based air pollution data from 2000 to 2022 quantify the contribution of wildfire smoke to stagnation or reversal in PM2.5 concentration trends, showing that this contribution will grow as the climate continues to warm.
- Marshall Burke
- , Marissa L. Childs
- & Michael Wara
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| Open AccessGlobal population exposure to landscape fire air pollution from 2000 to 2019
The global population is increasingly exposed to daily landscape fire-sourced air pollution but there are socioeconomic disparities, with this pollution four times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries during the period 2000–2019.
- Rongbin Xu
- , Tingting Ye
- & Shanshan Li
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Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement
Comparison of the carbon balance during 2010–2018 with 2019 and 2020 shows that a decline in law enforcement may have led to an increase in Amazon forest carbon emissions.
- Luciana V. Gatti
- , Camilla L. Cunha
- & Guilherme B. M. Machado
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Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds
Ground truthed thermal data from a new NASA satellite combined with experimental warming data from three continents in an empirical model suggests that tropical forests are closer to a high temperature threshold than previously thought.
- Christopher E. Doughty
- , Jenna M. Keany
- & Joshua B. Fisher
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A global rise in alluvial mining increases sediment load in tropical rivers
The assembly and analysis of a 37-year satellite database covering almost 400 mining districts in 49 countries shows that a rise in river mineral mining has substantially increased riverine sediment load in tropical rivers worldwide.
- Evan N. Dethier
- , Miles Silman
- & David A. Lutz
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| Open AccessAccelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China
To meet China’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, substantial investment in upgrading power systems needs to be made to optimize the deployment of new photovoltaic and wind power plants.
- Yijing Wang
- , Rong Wang
- & Renhe Zhang
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| Open AccessThe global wildland–urban interface
A global assessment shows that the wildland–urban interface occurs on all continents, showing its broad-scale patterns and providing a basis for future research on dynamics and socioeconomic and biophysical processes.
- Franz Schug
- , Avi Bar-Massada
- & Volker C. Radeloff
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Agricultural pesticide land budget and river discharge to oceans
A global assessment of the mobility of 92 agricultural pesticides from points of application in major agricultural catchments downstream to rivers and oceans identifies flow pathways and pollution hotspots in which monitoring could improve risk mitigation.
- Federico Maggi
- , Fiona H. M. Tang
- & Francesco N. Tubiello
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Plastic pollution on the world’s coral reefs
Plastics were found in 77 out of 84 coral reefs surveyed in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans, including in deeper reefs and remote and near-pristine reefs, such as in uninhabited central Pacific atolls.
- Hudson T. Pinheiro
- , Chancey MacDonald
- & Luiz A. Rocha
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Plastic debris in lakes and reservoirs
Analysis of plastic debris found in surface waters shows that lakes and reservoirs in densely populated and urbanized regions, as well as those with elevated deposition areas, are particularly vulnerable to plastic contamination.
- Veronica Nava
- , Sudeep Chandra
- & Barbara Leoni
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| Open AccessSafe and just Earth system boundaries
We find that justice considerations constrain the integrated Earth system boundaries more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading, and our assessment provides a foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people.
- Johan Rockström
- , Joyeeta Gupta
- & Xin Zhang
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Matters Arising |
Quantifying the carbon benefits of ending bottom trawling
- Jan Geert Hiddink
- , Sebastiaan J. van de Velde
- & Marija Sciberras
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Dynamic crosslinking compatibilizes immiscible mixed plastics
A new compatibilization strategy installs dynamic crosslinkers into several classes of binary, ternary and postconsumer immiscible polymer mixtures in situ, with the resulting compatibilized dynamic thermosets exhibiting intrinsic reprocessability and enhanced tensile strength and creep resistance.
- Ryan W. Clarke
- , Tobias Sandmeier
- & Eugene Y.-X. Chen
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Continent-wide declines in shallow reef life over a decade of ocean warming
A systematic census at 1,636 sites around Australia from 2008 to 2021 finds that more than 30% of shallow invertebrate species in cool latitudes exhibit a high extinction risk due to declining populations and oceanic barriers, but tropical coral species remain relatively stable.
- Graham J. Edgar
- , Rick D. Stuart-Smith
- & Amanda E. Bates
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The carbon sink of secondary and degraded humid tropical forests
Analysis of satellite-based data on recovering degraded and secondary forests in three tropical moist forest regions quantifies the amount of aboveground carbon accumulated, which counterbalanced one quarter of carbon emissions from old-growth forest loss between 1984 and 2018.
- Viola H. A. Heinrich
- , Christelle Vancutsem
- & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
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| Open AccessCoastal phytoplankton blooms expand and intensify in the 21st century
Satellite observations reveal global increases in the extent and frequency of phytoplankton blooms between 2003 and 2020 and provide insights into the relationship between blooms, ocean circulation and sea surface temperature.
- Yanhui Dai
- , Shangbo Yang
- & Lian Feng
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Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China
A proposed optimal nitrogen rate strategy together with analysis of an extensive on-farm dataset shows that meeting national rice production targets in 2030 in China is possible while concurrently reducing nationwide nitrogen consumption.
- Siyuan Cai
- , Xu Zhao
- & Xiaoyuan Yan
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| Open AccessLess extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900
An assessment of ice-dam failures in six mountain regions shows that extreme peak flows and volumes have declined sharply since 1900, and that ice-dam floods today originate at higher elevations and earlier in the year.
- Georg Veh
- , Natalie Lützow
- & Oliver Korup
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Matters Arising |
Concerns about data linking delta land gain to human action
- Florin Zăinescu
- , Edward Anthony
- & Florin Tătui
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Extensive global wetland loss over the past three centuries
We reconstruct the spatial distribution and timing of wetland loss through conversion to seven human land uses between 1700 and 2020, elucidating the magnitude and land-use drivers of global wetland losses to improve assessments of wetland loss impacts.
- Etienne Fluet-Chouinard
- , Benjamin D. Stocker
- & Peter B. McIntyre
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Plastic futures and their CO2 emissions
Three alternative CO2 emission-mitigation pathways were analysed for the global plastics sector, covering their production to waste management. A circular bioeconomy strategy could achieve negative emissions in the long term, while at the same time allowing landfilling to be phased out and reducing resource consumption.
- Paul Stegmann
- , Vassilis Daioglou
- & Martin Junginger
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| Open AccessGlobal hotspots of salt marsh change and carbon emissions
Analysis of Landsat imagery from the past two decades allows quantification of the changes in salt marsh ecosystems, as well as associated carbon emissions resulting from net global losses.
- Anthony D. Campbell
- , Lola Fatoyinbo
- & David Lagomasino
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From planetary to regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen pollution
Modelling of regional and planetary boundaries for agricultural nitrogen pollution finds that the global nitrogen surplus boundary is lower than the current nitrogen surplus.
- L. F. Schulte-Uebbing
- , A. H. W. Beusen
- & W. de Vries
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Global trends of cropland phosphorus use and sustainability challenges
The historical and spatial patterns of the phosphorus budget and phosphorus use efficiency by country and crop type are reported, and used to determine phosphorus pollution and scarcity challenges.
- T. Zou
- , X. Zhang
- & E. A. Davidson
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Matters Arising |
The risks of overstating the climate benefits of ecosystem restoration
- Jonathan C. Doelman
- & Elke Stehfest
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Matters Arising |
Reply to: The risks of overstating the climate benefits of ecosystem restoration
- Bernardo B. N. Strassburg
- , Alvaro Iribarrem
- & Piero Visconti
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Delayed use of bioenergy crops might threaten climate and food security
Simulations of historical and future periods of climate change showed that delayed mitigation to limit global warming might reduce the capacity of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and threaten climate stability and food security.
- Siqing Xu
- , Rong Wang
- & Renhe Zhang
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| Open AccessComprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
Coupling advances in socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions and discounting methods yields an estimate of the social cost of carbon of US$185 per tonne of CO2—triple the widely used value published by the US government.
- Kevin Rennert
- , Frank Errickson
- & David Anthoff
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When and where to protect forests
A dynamic optimization approach using plant species data from 458 forest ecoregions suggests a strategy for when and where to conserve forests globally over the next 50 years to maximize the conservation of plant biodiversity.
- Ian H. Luby
- , Steve J. Miller
- & Stephen Polasky
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Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire
An analysis of satellite observations and climate data shows that night-time fire intensity has increased over the past two decades owing to hotter and drier nights under anthropogenic climate change.
- Jennifer K. Balch
- , John T. Abatzoglou
- & A. Park Williams
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Air pollution exposure disparities across US population and income groups
Different racial/ethnic populations and income groups are found to have been exposed to different levels of air pollution in the USA during the years 2000 to 2016.
- Abdulrahman Jbaily
- , Xiaodan Zhou
- & Francesca Dominici
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| Open AccessRapid microbial methanogenesis during CO2 storage in hydrocarbon reservoirs
Microbial methanogenesis converts up to 19% of the carbon dioxide injected into an oil field to methane, suggesting that microbial methanogenesis may be a globally important subsurface process.
- R. L. Tyne
- , P. H. Barry
- & C. J. Ballentine
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Article
| Open AccessExperimental evidence for recovery of mercury-contaminated fish populations
In a 15-year whole-ecosystem, single-factor experiment, stopping experimental mercury loading results in rapid decreases in methylmercury contamination of fish populations and almost complete recovery within the timeframe of the study.
- Paul J. Blanchfield
- , John W. M. Rudd
- & Michael T. Tate
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Uncovering global-scale risks from commercial chemicals in air
A new framework is proposed for assessing the risks of the atmospheric transformation products of commercial chemicals, combining laboratory and field experiments, advanced techniques for screening suspect chemicals, and in silico modelling.
- Qifan Liu
- , Li Li
- & John Liggio
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Carbon implications of marginal oils from market-derived demand shocks
Here the non-linear relationship is revealed between carbon emissions reductions and oil demand reductions, which depends on the magnitude of demand drop and the global oil market structure.
- Mohammad S. Masnadi
- , Giacomo Benini
- & Adam R. Brandt
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A global inventory of photovoltaic solar energy generating units
A global inventory of utility-scale solar photovoltaic generating units, produced by combining remote sensing imagery with machine learning, has identified 68,661 facilities — an increase of over 400% on previously available asset-level data — the majority of which were sited on cropland.
- L. Kruitwagen
- , K. T. Story
- & C. Hepburn
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Hemispheric black carbon increase after the 13th-century Māori arrival in New Zealand
Antarctic ice-core records and atmospheric transport modelling used here show that the 13th-century rise of Māori culture in New Zealand led to a threefold increase of atmospheric black carbon.
- Joseph R. McConnell
- , Nathan J. Chellman
- & Alberto J. Aristarain