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From planetary to regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen pollution

Nature volume 610, pages 507–512 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

Excessive agricultural nitrogen use causes environmental problems globally1, to an extent that it has been suggested that a safe planetary boundary has been exceeded2. Earlier estimates for the planetary nitrogen boundary3,4, however, did not account for the spatial variability in both ecosystems’ sensitivity to nitrogen pollution and agricultural nitrogen losses. Here we use a spatially explicit model to establish regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen surplus from thresholds for eutrophication of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and nitrate in groundwater. We estimate regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen pollution and find both overuse and room for intensification of agricultural nitrogen. The aggregated global surplus boundary with respect to all thresholds is 43 megatonnes of nitrogen per year, which is 64 per cent lower than the current (2010) nitrogen surplus (119 megatonnes of nitrogen per year). Allowing the nitrogen surplus to increase to close yield gaps in regions where environmental thresholds are not exceeded lifts the planetary nitrogen boundary to 57 megatonnes of nitrogen per year. Feeding the world without trespassing regional and planetary nitrogen boundaries requires large increases in nitrogen use efficiencies accompanied by mitigation of non-agricultural nitrogen sources such as sewage water. This asks for coordinated action that recognizes the heterogeneity of agricultural systems, non-agricultural nitrogen losses and environmental vulnerabilities.

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Fig. 1: Current (2010) and critical agricultural nitrogen surplus.
Fig. 2: Estimated global boundaries for various nitrogen indicators.
Fig. 3: Spatial variation in global exceedance of nitrogen thresholds.
Fig. 4: Possibilities for respecting environmental thresholds by reducing agricultural nitrogen losses alone.
Fig. 5: Possibilities for crop production within the safe operating space for nitrogen.

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Data availability

All data are available in the main text or Extended Data. Additional data, as well as a comprehensive mathematical description of the calculations, are provided in  Supplementary Information. All model input files as well as global maps of critical nitrogen surpluses, nitrogen inputs and their exceedances are provided via an online repository at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6395016. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The Python modelling code and additional materials are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

We thank L. Lassaletta and B. Bodirsky for suggestions on improving the manuscript. L.F.S.-U. acknowledges funding by the NWO (project number 022.003.009), provided by a project initiated by the SENSE Research School. W.d.V., A.F.B. and A.H.W.B. acknowledge funding by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) through the project ‘Towards an International Nitrogen Management System’ (INMS).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    L. F. Schulte-Uebbing & W. de Vries

  2. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands

    L. F. Schulte-Uebbing, A. H. W. Beusen & A. F. Bouwman

  3. Department of Earth Sciences—Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    A. H. W. Beusen & A. F. Bouwman

  4. Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    W. de Vries

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Contributions

All authors contributed to the concept and design of the study, L.F.S.-U. and A.H.W.B. built the model to calculate critical surplus and inputs, A.H.W.B. provided input data for the calculations, L.F.S.-U. performed all analyses and made figures, L.F.S.-U., A.F.B. and W.d.V. wrote the manuscript.

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Correspondence to L. F. Schulte-Uebbing.

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Nature thanks Benjamin Bodirsky, Carly Stevens and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Peer reviewer reports are available.

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Current and critical N inputs and outputs.

Global current (year 2010) nitrogen (N) inputs (subdivided into fertilizer, BNF, manure and deposition) and N outputs (subdivided into N uptake and N surplus) and critical N inputs and outputs related to three thresholds (N deposition to limit terrestrial biodiversity loss, N load to surface water to limit eutrophication, and N leaching to groundwater to meet drinking water standards), and for all thresholds combined. To convert inputs and outputs in MtN yr−1 to average rates in kgN ha−1 yr−1, divide by 2.3. Results split into arable land and intensively managed grassland are shown in Supplementary Fig. 2.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 2 Exceedance of critical nitrogen surplus per impact.

Spatial variation in the exceedance of critical nitrogen (N) surplus in agricultural land by current surplus related to a, all thresholds combined (corresponds to Fig. 3a in main text), b, critical deposition to limit terrestrial biodiversity loss, c, critical N load to surface water to limit eutrophication, and d, critical N leaching to groundwater to meet drinking water standards. Positive values indicate by how much agricultural N surplus needs to decrease in order to avoid exceeding environmental thresholds. Negative values indicate by how much agricultural N surplus can increase to allow additional N inputs to close yield gaps without exceeding environmental thresholds. Grid cells with no agricultural land are shown in grey. Separate results for arable land and intensively managed grassland are shown in Supplementary Fig. 3.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Current and critical nitrogen losses and exceedances.

Spatial variation in a–c, current nitrogen (N) losses to air and water, d–f, critical N losses to air and water and g–i, exceedance of current by critical N losses. a, Current total N (NOx + NH3) emissions, b, critical N emissions to limit terrestrial biodiversity loss, and c, exceedance of current by critical N emissions. d, Current total N load to surface water from all sources (both agricultural and other sources), e, critical N load to surface water related to eutrophication impacts, and f, exceedance of current by critical N load to surface water. g, Current total N leaching to groundwater, h, critical N leaching to groundwater to meet drinking water standards, and i, exceedance of current by critical N leaching to groundwater. Grid cells with no agricultural land are shown in grey.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Threshold exceedance per impact type.

Exceedance of thresholds for three nitrogen (N)-related environmental impacts (critical deposition to limit terrestrial biodiversity loss, critical N load to surface water to limit eutrophication, and critical N leaching to groundwater to meet drinking water standards) for a, arable land and b, intensively managed grassland. Colours indicate how many and which of the thresholds are exceeded: none (white), one threshold (magenta, cyan, yellow), two thresholds (red, blue, green) or all three thresholds (black); see legend for impact type per colour. Grey = areas with no arable land / intensively managed grassland.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Option space for agricultural N loss reductions.

Possibilities for respecting environmental thresholds by reducing agricultural nitrogen (N) losses alone on (i), arable land and (ii), intensively managed grassland for a, all thresholds combined, b, critical deposition to limit terrestrial biodiversity loss, c, critical N load to surface water to limit eutrophication and d, critical N leaching to groundwater to meet drinking water standards. Green = regions where threshold is not exceeded (reducing N losses not necessary), purple = regions where threshold is exceeded and reducing agricultural N losses is sufficient to respect threshold, orange = regions where threshold is exceeded and reducing agricultural N losses alone is not sufficient to respect threshold (threshold exceeded by non-agricultural N losses alone). Bars show the total fraction of agricultural land within each category. Grey = no arable land / intensively managed grassland.

Extended Data Fig. 6 Critical versus current N losses from different sources.

Ratio between current (year 2010) N losses from non-agricultural sources and total critical N losses. a, Ratio between current N load from wastewater and critical N load to surface water (to avoid eutrophication impacts). b, Ratio between current N load from erosion (both from agricultural land and natural land) and critical N load to surface water. c, Ratio between current N load from allochthonous organic matter and total critical N load to surface water. d, Ratio between current NOx emissions and total critical N emissions to limit deposition in terrestrial ecosystems and resulting biodiversity loss. A ratio > 1 indicates that N losses from an individual source alone exceed thresholds, and thus that thresholds for surface water N concentrations or N deposition are exceeded even at zero inputs to agriculture. Grey = no agricultural land.

Extended Data Fig. 7 Potential for regional crop production within N boundaries.

Crop production that can be obtained while respecting boundaries for all three N-related thresholds simultaneously, expressed as a share of a, current regional crop production and b, minimum regional crop demand under a balanced diet as estimated with Eq. 3 (see Methods), and (i) at current N use efficiency (NUE) and (ii) if NUE is increased to 0.90 everywhere. Results shown are for the assumption of constant non-agricultural N losses and a legacy effect (Scenario S1, see Fig. 5).

Extended Data Fig. 8 Exceedance of current by critical N surplus by region.

Exceedance of current (year 2010) N surplus by critical N surplus, for all agricultural land, aggregated to the level of 26 world regions represented in the IMAGE model. Percentages indicate by how much, on average, current surplus needs to decrease (red) in order to respect environmental thresholds or may increase (green) to allow for additional N inputs to close yield gaps while still respecting thresholds for a, all thresholds combined, b, critical deposition to limit terrestrial biodiversity loss, c, critical N load to surface water to limit eutrophication and d, critical N leaching to groundwater to meet drinking water standards. Current and critical N surpluses for each world region are shown in Extended Data Table 2.

Extended Data Fig. 9 Schematic illustrations of the modelling approach.

a, Schematic representation of the steps for back-calculating critical N surplus and critical N input from critical impacts. b, Simplified schematic representation of the calculations of N losses in the IMAGE-GNM model used in the back-calculation of critical agricultural N surplus and N input. Boxes represent different land-use types (1 = arable land, = intensively managed grassland, 3 = extensively managed grassland, 4 = natural land).

Extended Data Table 1 Share of agricultural land where thresholds are exceeded
Full size table
Extended Data Table 2 Current (year 2010) and critical N surplus (all agricultural land) in view of thresholds for three environmental impacts, and for all impacts combined
Full size table

Supplementary information

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Schulte-Uebbing, L.F., Beusen, A.H.W., Bouwman, A.F. et al. From planetary to regional boundaries for agricultural nitrogen pollution. Nature 610, 507–512 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05158-2

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