Focus
Recent slowdown in global warming
- Focus
- March 2014 Volume 7 No 3 pp157-244
Credit: Asist RF Arkiv / Alamy
From the industrial revolution onwards, greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities such as the burning of fossil fuel and changes in land use have caused the planet to warm. However, since 1998 — a year of record warmth — the rate of warming has been lower than in the late twentieth century. In this joint web focus, Nature Climate Change and Nature Geoscience present original research and opinion pieces that discuss the causes of the slowdown in surface warming and examine how the science has been communicated by researchers and the media.
Watch our panel discussion on the science and communication of climate change over the past two decades http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iunO85OkWeA&feature=youtu.be.
Editorial
Nature Climate Change: Scientist communicators
doi:10.1038/nclimate2167
The slowdown in Earth's surface temperature increase has made headlines worldwide — but mainly to dismiss climate science.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (988 KB) - Information storage
Nature Geoscience: Hiatus in context
doi:10.1038/ngeo2116
The recent slow-down in the rate of warming, averaged over the surface of the entire planet, has incited much discussion. As climate scientists are tracking down the causes, we must not forget that average surface temperatures are only one indicator of climate change.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (655 KB) - Information storage
Correspondence
Nature Climate Change: Recent observed and simulated warming
John C. Fyfe & Nathan P. Gillett
doi:10.1038/nclimate2111
Full text - Information storage | PDF (1,685 KB) - Information storage
Commentary
Nature Climate Change: Media discourse on the climate slowdown
Maxwell T. Boykoff
doi:10.1038/nclimate2156
We must not fall victim to decontextualized and ahistorical media accounting of climate trends.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (641 KB) - Information storage
Nature Climate Change: Pause for thought
Ed Hawkins, Tamsin Edwards & Doug McNeall
doi:10.1038/nclimate2150
The recent slowdown (or 'pause') in global surface temperature rise is a hot topic for climate scientists and the wider public. We discuss how climate scientists have tried to communicate the pause and suggest that 'many-to-many' communication offers a key opportunity to directly engage with the public on important climate science issues.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (693 KB) - Information storage
Nature Geoscience: Bumpy path to a warmer world
Martin Visbeck
doi:10.1038/ngeo2104
Decadal climate variability has long received limited attention. With the slow-down in surface warming since the late 1990s, the decadal scale has rightly become a focus of attention: for assessing climate change and its impacts, it is of critical importance.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (685 KB) - Information storage
Nature Climate Change: Heat hide and seek
Lisa Goddard
doi:10.1038/nclimate2155
Natural variability can explain fluctuations in surface temperatures but can it account for the current slowdown in warming?
Full text - Information storage | PDF (1,663 KB) - Information storage
Nature Geoscience: Reconciling warming trends
Gavin A. Schmidt, Drew T. Shindell & Kostas Tsigaridis
doi:10.1038/ngeo2105
Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El Niño evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (748 KB) - Information storage
Nature Climate Change: No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes
Sonia I. Seneviratne, Markus G. Donat, Brigitte Mueller & Lisa V. Alexander
doi:10.1038/nclimate2145
Observational data show a continued increase of hot extremes over land during the so-called global warming hiatus. This tendency is greater for the most extreme events and thus more relevant for impacts than changes in global mean temperature.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (704 KB) - Information storage
Interview
Nature Climate Change: In the public's mind
doi:10.1038/nclimate2152
The policy and communications director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Bob Ward, talks to Nature Climate Change about the need for climate scientists to actively engage with the public.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (594 KB) - Information storage
News Feature
Nature Climate Change: Pacific puzzle
Olive Heffernan
doi:10.1038/nclimate2149
Scientists have offered numerous explanations for the recent slowdown in global surface warming. Now, one study suggests that tropical trade winds may hold the answer.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (796 KB) - Information storage
News and Views
Nature Climate Change: Atmospheric science: Increasing wind sinks heat
Yu Kosaka
doi:10.1038/nclimate2138
Surface global warming has stalled since around 2000 despite increasing atmospheric CO2. A study finds that recent strengthening of Pacific trade winds has enhanced heat transport from the surface to ocean depths, explaining most of the slowed surface warming.
Full text - Information storage | PDF (1,126 KB) - Information storage
Letter
Nature Geoscience: Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature
Benjamin D. Santer, Céline Bonfils, Jeffrey F. Painter, Mark D. Zelinka, Carl Mears, Susan Solomon, Gavin A. Schmidt, John C. Fyfe, Jason N. S. Cole, Larissa Nazarenko, Karl E. Taylor & Frank J. Wentz
doi:10.1038/ngeo2098
Global warming has stalled since the late 1990s, puzzling researchers; here a climate model that includes observed sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific reproduces the hiatus as part of natural variation, suggesting that long-term global warming is likely to continue.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (1,282 KB) - Information storage
Article
Nature Climate Change: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus
Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso
doi:10.1038/nclimate2106
The slowdown in global average surface warming has recently been linked to sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This work shows that strengthening trade winds caused a reduction in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1–0.2°C. This may account for much of the warming hiatus and is a result of increased subsurface ocean heat uptake.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (3,129 KB) - Information storage
Archive
Correspondence
Nature Geoscience: Energy budget constraints on climate response
Alexander Otto, Friederike E. L. Otto, Olivier Boucher, John Church, Gabi Hegerl, Piers M. Forster, Nathan P. Gillett, Jonathan Gregory, Gregory C. Johnson, Reto Knutti, Nicholas Lewis, Ulrike Lohmann, Jochem Marotzke, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, Bjorn Stevens & Myles R. Allen
doi:10.1038/ngeo1836
Full text - Information storage | PDF (370 KB) - Information storage
Nature Geoscience: Test of a decadal climate forecast
Myles R. Allen, John F. B. Mitchell & Peter A. Stott
doi:10.1038/ngeo1788
Full text - Information storage | PDF (119 KB) - Information storage
Commentary
Nature Climate Change: Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
John C. Fyfe, Nathan P. Gillett & Francis W. Zwiers
doi:10.1038/nclimate1972
Full text - Information storage | PDF (261 KB) - Information storage
Perspective
Nature Climate Change: Communication of climate projections in US media amid politicization of model science
Karen Akerlof, Katherine E. Rowan, Dennis Fitzgerald & Andrew Y. Cedeno
doi:10.1038/nclimate1542
The complexity and politicization of climate computer models can hinder communication of their science, uses and limitations. Evidence suggests that information on climate models in US newspapers is declining and that when it appears, it is often within sceptic discourses. Furthermore, model projections are frequently portrayed as probably being inaccurate, and political opinion outlets provide more explanation of model results than many news sources.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (419 KB) - Information storage
News & Views
Nature Geoscience: Climate science: Uncertain temperature trend
Judith Curry
doi:10.1038/ngeo2078
Full text - Information storage | PDF (739 KB) - Information storage
Nature Geoscience: Climate science: Breaks in trends
Felix Pretis & Myles Allen
doi:10.1038/ngeo2015
Full text - Information storage | PDF (146 KB) - Information storage
Nature: Climate science: The cause of the pause
Isaac M. Held
doi:10.1038/501318a
Full text - Information storage | PDF (545 KB) - Information storage
Nature Climate Change: Oceanography: Has global warming stalled?
Doug Smith
doi:10.1038/nclimate1938
Full text - Information storage | PDF (132 KB) - Information storage
Letters
Nature: Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie
doi:10.1038/nature12534
Global warming has stalled since the late 1990s, puzzling researchers; here a climate model that includes observed sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific reproduces the hiatus as part of natural variation, suggesting that long-term global warming is likely to continue.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (4,316 KB) - Information storage
Nature Climate Change: Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade
Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo & Muhammad Asif
doi:10.1038/nclimate1863
In recent years the global warming trend has plateaued, despite increasing anthropogenic emissions. Now research attributes this plateau to an increase in ocean heat uptake, through retrospective predictions of up to 5 years in length. The ability to hindcast this warming plateau strengthens our confidence in the robustness of climate models.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (427 KB) - Information storage
Nature Geoscience: Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s
Rowan T. Sutton & Buwen Dong
doi:10.1038/ngeo1595
The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales. Analyses of ocean and atmosphere temperature data from observations suggest that the shift in European climate during the 1990s was a result of warming in the North Atlantic Ocean.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (1,347 KB) - Information storage
Nature Geoscience: A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability
Thomas Reichler, Junsu Kim, Elisa Manzini & Jürgen Kröger
doi:10.1038/ngeo1586
Stratospheric circulation is known to affect weather in the troposphere. Climate modelling reveals a connection between variations in the stratospheric and North Atlantic ocean circulation over the past 30 years, and demonstrates that the stratosphere is an important component of climate over multidecadal timescales.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (832 KB) - Information storage
Nature Climate Change: Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods
Gerald A. Meehl, Julie M. Arblaster, John T. Fasullo, Aixue Hu & Kevin E. Trenberth
doi:10.1038/nclimate1229
In some decades, such as 2000–2009, the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series has shown a flat or slightly negative trend. A modelling study provides evidence that heat uptake by the deep ocean may cause these hiatus periods and may be linked to La Niña-like conditions.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (832 KB) - Information storage
Nature Geoscience: External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability
Odd Helge Otterå, Mats Bentsen, Helge Drange & Lingling Suo
doi:10.1038/ngeo955
Instrumental records, proxy data and climate modelling show that multidecadal variability is a dominant feature of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature variations. Simulations with a coupled climate model suggest that the timing of this variability is determined mainly by external forcing, for example from volcanic eruption or solar forcing.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (6,574 KB) - Information storage
Nature: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector
N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh & E. Roeckner
doi:10.1038/nature06921
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (600 KB) - Information storage
Article
Nature Geoscience: Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes
Francisco Estrada, Pierre Perron & Benjamín Martínez-López
doi:10.1038/ngeo1999
The causal connection between human activities and the evolution of climate warming over the past century is not fully understood. A state-of-the-art statistical analysis of time series of temperature and radiative forcing reveals that reductions in ozone-depleting substances and methane have contributed to the slow-down in warming since the late 1990s.
First paragraph - Information storage | Full text - Information storage | PDF (308 KB) - Information storage