Articles

  • Article |

    Highly mobile taxa, like birds, occupy ecosystems that lack fixed boundaries, and tracking how these spatial regimes respond to environmental change is difficult. Avian route data show the spatial regimes of Great Plains bird communities have shifted poleward and reorganized over the past 46 years.

    • Caleb P. Roberts
    • , Craig R. Allen
    • , David G. Angeler
    •  & Dirac Twidwell
  • Article |

    Climate threats to iconic places may arouse public concern and protective sentiment. This study shows that mass coral bleaching influenced sentiments, threat perceptions and values associated with the Great Barrier Reef and climate change attitudes in Australian and international tourists.

    • Matthew I. Curnock
    • , Nadine A. Marshall
    • , Lauric Thiault
    • , Scott F. Heron
    • , Jessica Hoey
    • , Genevieve Williams
    • , Bruce Taylor
    • , Petina L. Pert
    •  & Jeremy Goldberg
  • Article |

    The combined impacts of climate change and deforestation are estimated to reduce Amazon tree species richness by up to 58% by 2050, whilst deforestation alone may cause 19–36%, and climate change alone 31–37%.

    • Vitor H. F. Gomes
    • , Ima C. G. Vieira
    • , Rafael P. Salomão
    •  & Hans ter Steege
  • Article |

    Non-human primates deliver ecological processes to tropical ecosystems. In this study, a trait-based approach is used to assess the vulnerability of 607 primate taxa to cyclones and droughts, extreme climatic events that are expected to increase or intensify in the coming decades.

    • Lyubing Zhang
    • , Eric I. Ameca
    • , Guy Cowlishaw
    • , Nathalie Pettorelli
    • , Wendy Foden
    •  & Georgina M. Mace
  • Article |

    Calcifying marine species are threatened by ocean acidification. A year-long study of calcifying fluid chemistry shows that reef species, both corals and calcifying macroalgal species, were not able to adapt to ocean acidification.

    • S. Comeau
    • , C. E. Cornwall
    • , T. M. DeCarlo
    • , S. S. Doo
    • , R. C. Carpenter
    •  & M. T. McCulloch
  • Article |

    Political interests play a key role in the passage of climate policy. This study quantifies that political lobbying reduced the probability of enacting the Waxman–Markey bill in the United States by 13 percentage points, representing US$60 billion in expected climate damages.

    • Kyle C. Meng
    •  & Ashwin Rode
  • Article |

    Behavioural interventions aimed at curbing carbon emissions are inexpensive and easy to implement but can offer the false promise of a quick fix. Across six experiments, the authors show that exposure to a green energy nudge diminishes support for carbon taxes.

    • David Hagmann
    • , Emily H Ho
    •  & George Loewenstein
  • Article |

    The benefits of using natural gas as a bridge fuel are often called into question. A coal-to-gas shift in China, Germany, India and the United States is broadly consistent with climate stabilization goals in the Paris Agreement, except when metrics emphasizing very short-term outcomes are used.

    • Katsumasa Tanaka
    • , Otávio Cavalett
    • , William J. Collins
    •  & Francesco Cherubini
  • Article |

    Spaceborne thermal observation is used to monitor discrete phenophases of forest understory plants in near-real time and the thermal relationship is used to project phenological changes under future climates.

    • David N. Laskin
    • , Gregory J. McDermid
    • , Scott E. Nielsen
    • , Shawn J. Marshall
    • , David R. Roberts
    •  & Alessandro Montaghi
  • Article |

    The Pacific Walker circulation is predicted to weaken, however, observations suggest a current strengthening. Satellite humidity observations show a weaker response than reanalyses; coupled with model simulations, this suggests that internal variability dominates recent strengthening.

    • Eui-Seok Chung
    • , Axel Timmermann
    • , Brian J. Soden
    • , Kyung-Ja Ha
    • , Lei Shi
    •  & Viju O. John
  • Article |

    Climate change has the potential to profoundly affect Arctic transportation systems. Here, Indigenous knowledge and climate data are integrated to model changing trail access for Canada’s Inuit communities over the past 30 years

    • J. D. Ford
    • , D. Clark
    • , T. Pearce
    • , L. Berrang-Ford
    • , L. Copland
    • , J. Dawson
    • , M. New
    •  & S. L Harper
  • Article |

    Decision-making structures in forest-user communities often exclude women. This lab-in-field experiment shows that groups in which at least 50% of members were women conserved more trees, and distributed benefits more equally, in a payment for ecosystem services intervention.

    • Nathan J. Cook
    • , Tara Grillos
    •  & Krister P. Andersson
  • Article |

    Climate change mitigation requires cooperation among nations, which could be undermined if a major emitter defects from international agreements. This study shows that public support for global climate policies is unaffected by information on other countries failing to reduce their emissions.

    • Liam F. Beiser-McGrath
    •  & Thomas Bernauer
  • Article |

    Accurate emissions data are required to monitor progress towards climate goals. Firms’ self-reported emissions show convergence with independently verified emissions in two pilot emissions trading systems in China over several years, suggesting the effectiveness of oversight and third-party audits.

    • Da Zhang
    • , Qin Zhang
    • , Shaozhou Qi
    • , Jinpeng Huang
    • , Valerie J. Karplus
    •  & Xiliang Zhang
  • Article |

    Arctic sea-ice melt causes a release of dissolved organic material (DOM) into the surface waters. The increased dominance of first-year ice and DOM release is impacting under-ice bacterial communities.

    • Graham J. C. Underwood
    • , Christine Michel
    • , Guillaume Meisterhans
    • , Andrea Niemi
    • , Claude Belzile
    • , Matthias Witt
    • , Alex J. Dumbrell
    •  & Boris P. Koch
  • Article |

    Meta-analyses with data from 106 studies show that descriptive norms, negative affect, perceived self-efficacy and outcome efficacy are most strongly associated with climate change adaptation, whereas knowledge and experience are only weakly associated with adaptive behaviour.

    • Anne M. van Valkengoed
    •  & Linda Steg
  • Article |

    Global net ecosystem production (NEP) from a number of atmospheric inversions and dynamic global vegetation models is analysed to attribute trends to potential drivers. CO2 is found to have a positive effect on NEP that is constrained by climate warming.

    • M. Fernández-Martínez
    • , J. Sardans
    • , F. Chevallier
    • , P. Ciais
    • , M. Obersteiner
    • , S. Vicca
    • , J. G. Canadell
    • , A. Bastos
    • , P. Friedlingstein
    • , S. Sitch
    • , S. L. Piao
    • , I. A. Janssens
    •  & J. Peñuelas
  • Article |

    Consumer adoption of more plant-based diets has high technical potential to reduce global GHG emissions. This study shows that consumers underestimate the GHG emissions associated with foods, but carbon labels that provide this information promote the purchase of lower-emitting options.

    • Adrian R. Camilleri
    • , Richard P. Larrick
    • , Shajuti Hossain
    •  & Dalia Patino-Echeverri
  • Article |

    Agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions represent around 11% of total anthropogenic GHGs. Here agriculture mitigation potentials are quantified, in the context of the 1.5 °C target, and decomposed by emission source, region and mitigation mechanism.

    • Stefan Frank
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Elke Stehfest
    • , Hans van Meijl
    • , Peter Witzke
    • , Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez
    • , Michiel van Dijk
    • , Jonathan C. Doelman
    • , Thomas Fellmann
    • , Jason F. L. Koopman
    • , Andrzej Tabeau
    •  & Hugo Valin
  • Article |

    Managed coastal wetlands have been included for the first time in the US Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Intact vegetated coastal wetlands are shown to represent a net greenhouse gas sink, but these are being lost to development, despite robust regulation, causing emissions.

    • Stephen Crooks
    • , Ariana E. Sutton-Grier
    • , Tiffany G. Troxler
    • , Nathaniel Herold
    • , Blanca Bernal
    • , Lisa Schile-Beers
    •  & Tom Wirth
  • Article |

    Urban expansion and climate change interact to produce less night-time warming than their sum. Combined implementation of adaptation strategies can offset projected daytime urban warming when applied with GHG emissions reductions, but cannot offset projected nocturnal warming.

    • E. Scott Krayenhoff
    • , Mohamed Moustaoui
    • , Ashley M. Broadbent
    • , Vishesh Gupta
    •  & Matei Georgescu
  • Article |

    A combination of consumption-based emissions modelling and deliberative public workshops suggests that developing resource-efficient products will be an effective climate change mitigation strategy because it has both high emissions-reduction potential and wide-scale public approval.

    • Catherine Cherry
    • , Kate Scott
    • , John Barrett
    •  & Nick Pidgeon
  • Article |

    Global estimates of the economic impacts of CO2 emissions may obscure regional heterogeneities. A modular framework for estimating the country-level social cost of carbon shows consistently unequal country-level costs.

    • Katharine Ricke
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Ken Caldeira
    •  & Massimo Tavoni
  • Article |

    The model–inventory discrepancy in net land-use carbon emissions mainly results from conceptual differences in estimating anthropogenic forest sinks. A revised disaggregation of global land model results allows greater comparability with inventories.

    • Giacomo Grassi
    • , Jo House
    • , Werner A. Kurz
    • , Alessandro Cescatti
    • , Richard A. Houghton
    • , Glen P. Peters
    • , Maria J. Sanz
    • , Raul Abad Viñas
    • , Ramdane Alkama
    • , Almut Arneth
    • , Alberte Bondeau
    • , Frank Dentener
    • , Marianela Fader
    • , Sandro Federici
    • , Pierre Friedlingstein
    • , Atul K. Jain
    • , Etsushi Kato
    • , Charles D. Koven
    • , Donna Lee
    • , Julia E. M. S. Nabel
    • , Alexander A. Nassikas
    • , Lucia Perugini
    • , Simone Rossi
    • , Stephen Sitch
    • , Nicolas Viovy
    • , Andy Wiltshire
    •  & Sönke Zaehle
  • Article |

    The connections between global mean temperature and precipitation responses to CO2 doubling (equilibrium climate and hydrological sensitivity) are driven through low-cloud responses to surface warming, according to MIROC5 perturbation experiments.

    • Masahiro Watanabe
    • , Youichi Kamae
    • , Hideo Shiogama
    • , Anthony M. DeAngelis
    •  & Kentaroh Suzuki
  • Article |

    Analysis of peatland carbon accumulation over the last millennium and its association with global-scale climate space indicates an ongoing carbon sink into the future, but with decreasing strength as conditions warm.

    • Angela V. Gallego-Sala
    • , Dan J. Charman
    • , Simon Brewer
    • , Susan E. Page
    • , I. Colin Prentice
    • , Pierre Friedlingstein
    • , Steve Moreton
    • , Matthew J. Amesbury
    • , David W. Beilman
    • , Svante Björck
    • , Tatiana Blyakharchuk
    • , Christopher Bochicchio
    • , Robert K. Booth
    • , Joan Bunbury
    • , Philip Camill
    • , Donna Carless
    • , Rodney A. Chimner
    • , Michael Clifford
    • , Elizabeth Cressey
    • , Colin Courtney-Mustaphi
    • , François De Vleeschouwer
    • , Rixt de Jong
    • , Barbara Fialkiewicz-Koziel
    • , Sarah A. Finkelstein
    • , Michelle Garneau
    • , Esther Githumbi
    • , John Hribjlan
    • , James Holmquist
    • , Paul D. M. Hughes
    • , Chris Jones
    • , Miriam C. Jones
    • , Edgar Karofeld
    • , Eric S. Klein
    • , Ulla Kokfelt
    • , Atte Korhola
    • , Terri Lacourse
    • , Gael Le Roux
    • , Mariusz Lamentowicz
    • , David Large
    • , Martin Lavoie
    • , Julie Loisel
    • , Helen Mackay
    • , Glen M. MacDonald
    • , Markku Makila
    • , Gabriel Magnan
    • , Robert Marchant
    • , Katarzyna Marcisz
    • , Antonio Martínez Cortizas
    • , Charly Massa
    • , Paul Mathijssen
    • , Dmitri Mauquoy
    • , Timothy Mighall
    • , Fraser J. G. Mitchell
    • , Patrick Moss
    • , Jonathan Nichols
    • , Pirita O. Oksanen
    • , Lisa Orme
    • , Maara S. Packalen
    • , Stephen Robinson
    • , Thomas P. Roland
    • , Nicole K. Sanderson
    • , A. Britta K. Sannel
    • , Noemí Silva-Sánchez
    • , Natascha Steinberg
    • , Graeme T. Swindles
    • , T. Edward Turner
    • , Joanna Uglow
    • , Minna Väliranta
    • , Simon van Bellen
    • , Marjolein van der Linden
    • , Bas van Geel
    • , Guoping Wang
    • , Zicheng Yu
    • , Joana Zaragoza-Castells
    •  & Yan Zhao
  • Article |

    In economic games, players shift to riskier contributions when targets that prevent catastrophic losses cannot be met otherwise, suggesting people are willing to invest in riskier technology when more certain options will not be sufficient to mitigate climate change.

    • Talbot M. Andrews
    • , Andrew W. Delton
    •  & Reuben Kline
  • Article |

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 (550 ppm) could cause an additional 175 million people to be zinc deficient and 122 million protein deficient (assuming 2050 population and CO2 projections) due to the reduced nutritional value of staple food crops.

    • Matthew R. Smith
    •  & Samuel S. Myers
  • Article |

    Climate issues are increasingly being presented before the courts, with both pro- and anti-regulation litigants aiming to affect policy outcomes. Analysis of domestic US climate lawsuits and interview data reveals the type of case and the strategies that succeed.

    • Sabrina McCormick
    • , Robert L. Glicksman
    • , Samuel J. Simmens
    • , LeRoy Paddock
    • , Daniel Kim
    •  & Brittany Whited
  • Article |

    A 1 °C increase in monthly average temperature is associated with higher suicide rates in the United States and Mexico. Combined with comparable analysis of depressive language in US Twitter updates, these results suggest a link between higher temperatures and mental well-being.

    • Marshall Burke
    • , Felipe González
    • , Patrick Baylis
    • , Sam Heft-Neal
    • , Ceren Baysan
    • , Sanjay Basu
    •  & Solomon Hsiang
  • Article |

    Marine fishes exposed to elevated CO2 levels can have altered responses to sensory cues. Research now reveals a physiological and molecular mechanism in the olfactory system that helps to explain this altered behaviour under elevated CO2.

    • Cosima S. Porteus
    • , Peter C. Hubbard
    • , Tamsyn M. Uren Webster
    • , Ronny van Aerle
    • , Adelino V. M. Canário
    • , Eduarda M. Santos
    •  & Rod W. Wilson
  • Article |

    Biodiversity is positively associated with carbon density in highly disturbed tropical forests, but this relationship breaks down in relatively undisturbed areas. Consequently, carbon conservation schemes can fail to protect the most ecologically valuable forests.

    • Joice Ferreira
    • , Gareth D. Lennox
    • , Toby A. Gardner
    • , James R. Thomson
    • , Erika Berenguer
    • , Alexander C. Lees
    • , Ralph Mac Nally
    • , Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
    • , Silvio F. B. Ferraz
    • , Julio Louzada
    • , Nárgila G. Moura
    • , Victor H. F. Oliveira
    • , Renata Pardini
    • , Ricardo R. C. Solar
    • , Ima C. G. Vieira
    •  & Jos Barlow
  • Article |

    The ratio of plant transpiration to total terrestrial evapotranspiration (T/ET) captures the role of vegetation in surface–atmosphere interactions. An emergent constraint approach strongly increases existing model T/ET estimates with implications for river flows.

    • Xu Lian
    • , Shilong Piao
    • , Chris Huntingford
    • , Yue Li
    • , Zhenzhong Zeng
    • , Xuhui Wang
    • , Philippe Ciais
    • , Tim R. McVicar
    • , Shushi Peng
    • , Catherine Ottlé
    • , Hui Yang
    • , Yuting Yang
    • , Yongqiang Zhang
    •  & Tao Wang
  • Article |

    Residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels limit the likelihood of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. A sector-level assessment of residual emissions using an ensemble of IAMs indicates that 640–950 GtCO2 removal will be required to constrain warming to 1.5 °C.

    • Gunnar Luderer
    • , Zoi Vrontisi
    • , Christoph Bertram
    • , Oreane Y. Edelenbosch
    • , Robert C. Pietzcker
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    • , Harmen Sytze De Boer
    • , Laurent Drouet
    • , Johannes Emmerling
    • , Oliver Fricko
    • , Shinichiro Fujimori
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Gokul Iyer
    • , Kimon Keramidas
    • , Alban Kitous
    • , Michaja Pehl
    • , Volker Krey
    • , Keywan Riahi
    • , Bert Saveyn
    • , Massimo Tavoni
    • , Detlef P. Van Vuuren
    •  & Elmar Kriegler
  • Article |

    The northern Barents Sea has warmed rapidly in recent decades. Hydrographic observations suggest increases in ocean temperature—particularly after the mid-2000s—can be linked to reduced sea-ice import, freshwater loss, weakened stratification and increased upward heat fluxes from the deep Atlantic layer.

    • Sigrid Lind
    • , Randi B. Ingvaldsen
    •  & Tore Furevik
  • Article |

    Editorials in multi-disciplinary journals can influence professional scientists and wider public discourse. This study compares how editorials on climate change in Nature and Science have changed over time and in response to wider political events

    • Mike Hulme
    • , Noam Obermeister
    • , Samuel Randalls
    •  & Maud Borie
  • Article |

    A global model that incorporates information about coastal environmental settings indicates that mangrove soil organic carbon stocks have been significantly underestimated in carbonate settings, and overestimated in deltaic coastlines.

    • André S. Rovai
    • , Robert R. Twilley
    • , Edward Castañeda-Moya
    • , Pablo Riul
    • , Miguel Cifuentes-Jara
    • , Marilyn Manrow-Villalobos
    • , Paulo A. Horta
    • , José C. Simonassi
    • , Alessandra L. Fonseca
    •  & Paulo R. Pagliosa
  • Article |

    Tree transpiration in the Amazon enhances downwind rainfall. Research now shows that approximately one-third of Amazon rainfall originates within its own basin, with the southern half of the basin contributing most to this effect.

    • Arie Staal
    • , Obbe A. Tuinenburg
    • , Joyce H. C. Bosmans
    • , Milena Holmgren
    • , Egbert H. van Nes
    • , Marten Scheffer
    • , Delphine Clara Zemp
    •  & Stefan C. Dekker
  • Article |

    Tourism is a significant contributor to the global economy, with potentially large environmental impacts. Origin and destination accounting perspectives are used to provide a comprehensive assessment of global tourism’s carbon footprint.

    • Manfred Lenzen
    • , Ya-Yen Sun
    • , Futu Faturay
    • , Yuan-Peng Ting
    • , Arne Geschke
    •  & Arunima Malik
  • Article |

    The effects of projected ocean acidification on primary productivity of the Arctic and subarctic shelf seas are found to be minimal, with the phytoplankton communities showing a high capacity to compensate for environmental change.

    • Clara Jule Marie Hoppe
    • , Klara K. E. Wolf
    • , Nina Schuback
    • , Philippe D. Tortell
    •  & Björn Rost
  • Article |

    Increasing zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation is projected by 2100, with increases over Asian and African forests and decreases over South American forests. Plant physiological responses to increasing CO2 are now identified as a primary driving mechanism.

    • Gabriel J. Kooperman
    • , Yang Chen
    • , Forrest M. Hoffman
    • , Charles D. Koven
    • , Keith Lindsay
    • , Michael S. Pritchard
    • , Abigail L. S. Swann
    •  & James T. Randerson