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Asymmetric hysteresis response of mid-latitude storm tracks to CO2 removal

Nature Climate Change (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

In a warming climate, storm tracks are projected to intensify on their poleward side. Here we use large-ensemble CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down simulations to show that these changes are not reversed when CO2 concentrations are reduced. If CO2 is removed from the atmosphere following CO2 increase, the North Atlantic storm track keeps strengthening until the middle of the CO2 removal, while the recovery of the North Pacific storm track during ramp-down is stronger than its shift during ramp-up. By contrast, the Southern Hemisphere storm track weakens during ramp-down at a rate much faster than its strengthening in the warming period. Compared with the present climate, the Northern Hemisphere storm track becomes stronger and the Southern Hemisphere storm track becomes weaker at the end of CO2 removal. These hemispherically asymmetric storm-track responses are attributable to the weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the delayed cooling of the Southern Ocean.

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Fig. 1: Global surface air temperature and hemispheric storm-track changes during CO2 pathway.
Fig. 2: Spatial distribution of storm-track changes during CO2 pathway.
Fig. 3: Hysteresis response of cyclone track density.
Fig. 4: Spatial distribution of SST and regional storm-track changes during CO2 pathway.
Fig. 5: Regional storm-track changes as a function of CO2 concentrations.

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Data availability

The Data used in this study are available via Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25239559 (ref. 74), and the CMIP6 archives are freely available from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6.

Code availability

The analysis were carried out using the function in NCAR Command Language v.6.2.1 and Python packages (scikit-learn 0.23.2). To carry out the interpolation of the model grid data, we utilized climate data operators available at https://code.mpimet.mpg.de/projects/cdo. All figures are generated using the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) v.2.2.1 (http://cola.gmu.edu/grads), and the codes are available via Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25239559 (ref. 74).

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Acknowledgements

Model simulation and data transfer were supported by the National Supercomputing Center with supercomputing resources including technical support (KSC-2021-CHA-0030), the National Center for Meteorological Supercomputer of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the Korea Research Environment Open NETwork (KREONET), respectively. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We appreciate the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/) and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. S.-W.S. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (2018R1A5A1024958 and 2023R1A2C3005607).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

    Jaeyoung Hwang, Seok-Woo Son & Hyunsuk Yoon

  2. Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel

    Chaim I. Garfinkel

  3. Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Tim Woollings

  4. Department of Atmospheric Sciences/Irreversible Climate Change Research Center, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea

    Soon-Il An

  5. Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, South Korea

    Soon-Il An, Seung-Ki Min & Jong-Seong Kug

  6. Department of Marine Sciences and Convergence Technology, Hanyang University, ERICA, Ansan, South Korea

    Sang-Wook Yeh

  7. Institute for Convergence Research and Education in Advanced Technology, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea

    Seung-Ki Min

  8. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA

    Jongsoo Shin

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Contributions

J.H. conducted analysis, illustrated the figures and wrote the manuscript. S.-W.S. conceptualized the overall research idea and wrote the manuscript. C.I.G. and T.W. improved the interpretation of the results and wrote the manuscript. H.Y. assisted in the computation of Lagrangian storm tracks. S.-W.S., S.-I.A., S.-W.Y., S.-K.M. and J.-S.K. designed the model experiment and conducted initial evaluation. J.S. performed the model experiment. All of the authors discussed the results and reviewed the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Seok-Woo Son.

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Hwang, J., Son, SW., Garfinkel, C.I. et al. Asymmetric hysteresis response of mid-latitude storm tracks to CO2 removal. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01971-x

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