Why are so many US institutions declining in research output?

In the Nature Index, most of America's leading institutions are recording negative growth in natural-sciences output. Take a look at those that are bucking the trend.

12 April 2024

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One of the starkest differences between institutions from China and the United States in the Nature Index is their change in output over time. In the 2023 Annual Tables, which tracked output in the natural sciences (biological sciences, chemistry, physical sciences and Earth and environmental sciences) in 2022, just three of the top 100 Chinese institutions posted negative growth, compared with 77 of the top 100 US institutions.

This trend played out in last year's Rising Stars supplement, too. Chinese institutions claimed 164 of the top 200 fastest rising positions for the period 2017 to 2022 in the natural sciences, whereas the United States had five institutions in the fastest-rising 200, and all in the bottom half.

China's rapid trajectory to the top of the charts is by now a familiar story, and the fall of other countries has a lot to do with the Nature Index database being a zero-sum game: if one country and its institutions make rapid gains, others inevitably fall.

But several other factors, including a concerted effort by China to increase outputs in top-ranking international journals, have contributed to its outpacing of the United States.

So, which US institutions have been able to go against this trend and actually grow their output?

Among the 25 fastest-rising institutions in North America for the period 2017 to 2022, 23 are in the United States, and two are in Canada. Of these, 11 are academic institutions (the two from Canada), seven are healthcare institutions, and there are three each of NPO/NGO and corporate institutions. A single government institution made it into the top 25 fastest rising, at rank 10, as seen in the table below.

These fast risers had a low base to build on; among the 10 fastest rising institutions in North America listed above, most sit well outside the top 100 for the region for natural-sciences output.

For example, Alphabet, the California-based parent company of Google, is the fastest rising US institution, with an increase of 211.8% for the period 2017 to 2022. But, among the leading institutions in North America for natural-sciences output in 2022, Alphabet was ranked 129th, its Share (32.24) representing just 4% of the Share (812.63) of the region’s top-ranked institution, Harvard University, in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

The second fastest-rising institution is the Simons Foundation, a New York-based charity that ranked 155th in 2022 in North America, with a Share of 23.87. A standout, then, is New York University, in New York, which is the 8th fastest rising institution in North America and was ranked 24th in the natural sciences in the region in 2022, with a Share of 197.19.

Focus areas

What’s notable about the 10 fastest-rising institutions in North America is the fact that the majority are strongest in biological-sciences output.

Considering China’s dominance in chemistry and physical sciences output in the Nature Index, and the United States’ comparative and historical strength in the biological sciences, it follows that US institutions with strong biological-sciences output would be more likely to improve their Share in the Index over institutions that are strong in other subject areas.

A challenge for these institutions will be continued growth in biological sciences output in the Nature Index, if China finds capacity to grow its own output the way it has in other subject areas.