The end of Internet growth?

Interesting piece in the NewScientist (2011 preview: The internet peak comes into view) on the growth of the Internet.

The article argues that the growth rate of the Internet is similar to that of bacteria in culture, that is, there is a lag phase, an exponential phase, and a stationary phase (bacterial browth also has a death phase - will the Internet have one?), and that at present we are in the exponential phase. This raises the question of when we will enter the stationary phase (i.e. no growth), and when things will start to slow-down?

The piece makes some bold assumptions such as total penetration of the Internet (i.e. the maximum number of people that may finally be on-line) will be around 80% of the total world population (this is based on current penetration rates in the US). I think this is high.

The final level of penetration is important as it determines when the 'inflection point' will occur, i.e. at which date the growth will start to slow. Asssuming it is 80%, then the answer is 2012, if everyone finally gets online (100% penetration) then it will be 2013. Either way, it looks like the growth of net will start to slow in the very near future.

The NewScientist article also discusses mobile use of the net, and how in the developing world penetration is around only 20 per cent. This means that the largest growth in Internet usage in the future will be in the developing world where access may 'leapfrog' past desktop access model and go straight to mobile. This brings interesting challenges and demands for eLearning websites as they may need to be designed and developed to allow easy access using mobile devices using low-bandwidth.

Full article: NewScientist (2011 preview: The internet peak comes into view)

1 Comment

December 29, 2010 | 10:33 AM

Posted By: Khalil A. Cassimally

It does make sense that the growth of the Internet will slow down eventually. The greater the penetration rates, the slower the rate of growth. What's interesting will be to see the new technologies and software/websites/services that will enhance communication between so many people through the Internet. And how those will be applied in science.

On a side note, you got me thinking of the Internet as a microbe. And given that microbes bring back bad memories...