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| Open AccessAssessing costs of Indonesian fires and the benefits of restoring peatland
Deforestation and drainage have made Indonesian peatlands susceptible to burning. Here the authors find that Indonesia’s 2015 fires resulted in economic losses totaling US$28 billion, while the area burned and emissions released could have been significantly reduced had restoration been completed.
- L. Kiely
- , D. V. Spracklen
- & H. A. Adrianto
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Article
| Open AccessLocation-specific co-benefits of carbon emissions reduction from coal-fired power plants in China
Spatially nuanced policies are necessary for maximising co-benefits of carbon-emissions reduction from coal-fired power plants. Here the authors present an approach integrating costs of CO2 and air pollution emissions to better understand social costs of electricity generation from coal burning in China.
- Pu Wang
- , Cheng-Kuan Lin
- & Tong Wu
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Article
| Open AccessAssessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise
The exposure of populations to sea-level rise is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. The authors identify three spatial zones of flooding such as mean higher water, the 100 year floodplain and the low-elevation coastal zone and show population exposure can differ between those zones.
- Mathew E. Hauer
- , Dean Hardy
- & Peter U. Clark
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Article
| Open AccessBreaking down barriers on PV trade will facilitate global carbon mitigation
Global trade of solar photovoltaic (PV) products has an important role to play in sustainable mitigation to climate change. Highlighting global PV product trade, this study explores the impeding effect of tariff and non-tariff barriers on global PV product trade and carbon emissions reductions.
- Mudan Wang
- , Xianqiang Mao
- & Eric Zusman
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of urban trees in reducing land surface temperatures in European cities
Urban trees influence temperatures in cities. The authors here investigate in spatio-temporal variations in their cooling effect and find 8-12 K decreased temperatures for tree-rich urban areas in Central Europe during hot summers, and up to 4 K for Southern Europe, respectively.
- Jonas Schwaab
- , Ronny Meier
- & Edouard L. Davin
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Article
| Open AccessA national cohort study (2000–2018) of long-term air pollution exposure and incident dementia in older adults in the United States
Air pollution has been linked to neurodegenerative disease. Here the authors carried out a population-based cohort study to investigate the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and warm-season O3 on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease incidence in the United States.
- Liuhua Shi
- , Kyle Steenland
- & Joel Schwartz
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Article
| Open AccessAir-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies
Adaptation to heat stress through the use of air conditioners has received increasing attention. Here the authors show that income and humidity adjusted temperature are common determinants for adopting air conditioning, but their relative contribution varies in relation to household characteristics.
- Filippo Pavanello
- , Enrica De Cian
- & André F. P. Lucena
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Article
| Open AccessMitigation potential of global ammonia emissions and related health impacts in the trade network
Ammonia emissions from agricultural sources can cause severe health impacts. Here, the authors show that about 25% of global agricultural ammonia emissions in 2012 were related to international exported goods and caused 61 thousand PM2.5 related premature deaths, which points out large ammonia mitigation potential in international trade.
- Rong Ma
- , Ke Li
- & Jing Meng
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
Comprehensive policy measures are needed to close the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and emissions goals of the Paris Agreement. Here the authors present a Bridge scenario that may aid in closing the emissions gap by 2030.
- Heleen L. van Soest
- , Lara Aleluia Reis
- & Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Article
| Open AccessConsumption in the G20 nations causes particulate air pollution resulting in two million premature deaths annually
Worldwide exposure to ambient PM2.5 causes millions of premature deaths annually. Here the authors quantify the global footprint of PM2.5-driven premature deaths for the G20 countries, which are in a position to lead internationally coordinated mitigation efforts.
- Keisuke Nansai
- , Susumu Tohno
- & Manfred Lenzen
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Article
| Open AccessDeep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures
Stabilizing climate change requires simultaneous mitigation of all greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Here the authors examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways to demonstrate the contributions of different GHGs towards 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals.
- Yang Ou
- , Christopher Roney
- & Haewon McJeon
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Article
| Open AccessAssessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China
Plum rain may reduce photovoltaic potential due to lowered surface irradiance (SI). Here the authors note lowered SI in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin by up to 20% due to rains, which, coupled with a large number of deployed PV systems, can cause incremental CO2 emissions of local power systems.
- Guangsheng Pan
- , Qinran Hu
- & Yuping Lu
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Article
| Open AccessHarmonizing corporate carbon footprints
Current carbon accounting and reporting practices remain unsystematic and incomparable, particularly for emissions along the value chain (scope 3). Here the authors present a framework to harmonize scope 3 emissions by accounting for reporting inconsistency, boundary incompleteness, and activity exclusion.
- Lena Klaaßen
- & Christian Stoll
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Article
| Open AccessGeophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide
Solar and wind resources are dependent on geophysical constraints. Here the authors find that solar and wind power resources can satisfy countries’ electricity demand of between 72–91% of hours, but hundreds of hours of unmet demand may occur annually.
- Dan Tong
- , David J. Farnham
- & Steven J. Davis
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Article
| Open AccessUltra-selective molecular-sieving gas separation membranes enabled by multi-covalent-crosslinking of microporous polymer blends
Microporous polymers become increasingly attractive as materials for the fabrication of permeable and selective gas separation membranes but separation performance is often limited by broad pore size distribution. Here, the authors design a porous polymer membrane via multi-crosslinking of miscible blends of microporous polymers enabling simultaneous high permeability and selectivity.
- Xiuling Chen
- , Yanfang Fan
- & Nanwen Li
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060
Building construction causes large material-related emissions which present a serious decarbonization challenge. Here, the authors show that the building material sector could halve emissions by increasing efficiency until 2060 but even then its emissions would be twice as high as needed to meet the 1.5 °C target.
- Xiaoyang Zhong
- , Mingming Hu
- & Paul Behrens
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Article
| Open AccessENSO impacts child undernutrition in the global tropics
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the weather around the world and, therefore, has strong impacts on society. Here, the authors show that ENSO is associated with child nutrition in many countries, with warmer El Niño conditions leading to more child undernutrition in large parts of the developing world.
- Jesse K. Anttila-Hughes
- , Amir S. Jina
- & Gordon C. McCord
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Article
| Open AccessConsidering socio-political framings when analyzing coastal climate change effects can prevent maldevelopment on small islands
Climate change adaptation and sea level rise pose challenges for both natural and societal dynamics. Here the authors analyse coastal processes and socio-political dimensions of erosion, leading to maldevelopment on Fuvahmulah in the Maldives.
- C. Gabriel David
- , Arne Hennig
- & Torsten Schlurmann
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Article
| Open AccessHigh resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation
Though a global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaic (RTSPV) technology’s potential and the cost is needed to estimate its impact, existing methods demand extensive data processing. Here, the authors report a machine learning method to realize a high-resolution global assessment of RTSPV potential.
- Siddharth Joshi
- , Shivika Mittal
- & James Glynn
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Article
| Open AccessCurrent and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe
Heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent and more intense, causing severe economic impacts through reduced labour productivity. Here, the authors show that economic damages in Europe exceed 1% of the GDP in vulnerable areas, which might increase by a factor of almost five in the medium term without climate action.
- David García-León
- , Ana Casanueva
- & Lars Nybo
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Article
| Open AccessHousehold cooking fuel estimates at global and country level for 1990 to 2030
Household air pollution derived from cooking fuels is a major source of health and environmental problems. Here, the authors provide detailed global, regional and country estimates of cooking fuel usage from 1990 to 2030 and project that 31% of people will still be mainly using polluting fuels in 2030.
- Oliver Stoner
- , Jessica Lewis
- & Heather Adair-Rohani
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Article
| Open AccessSustainable irrigation based on co-regulation of soil water supply and atmospheric evaporative demand
Irrigation is the most important use of water. A newly developed irrigation management scheme leads to a significant reduction in water use and increase in economic gains while maintaining crop yields, presenting opportunities for real-world impacts under current and future climate conditions.
- Jingwen Zhang
- , Kaiyu Guan
- & Grace L. Miner
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Article
| Open AccessBlue food demand across geographic and temporal scales
Global demand for “blue food” is growing. In this quantitative synthesis, the authors analyse global seafood demand and project trends to 2050, finding considerable regional variation in the relationship between wealth and consumption.
- Rosamond L. Naylor
- , Avinash Kishore
- & Beatrice Crona
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Article
| Open AccessIdentifying and characterizing pesticide use on 9,000 fields of organic agriculture
There is much uncertainty on use and impact of pesticides in organic agriculture. Here, the authors compare pesticide use in conventionally and organically managed fields in Kern County (US), finding that organic fields are less likely to be treated but, when they are, they receive similar pesticide amount as the conventional fields.
- Ashley E. Larsen
- , L. Claire Powers
- & Sofie McComb
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal relationships between crop diversity and nutritional stability
Crop diversification could be important for food security. Here, using methods from network science, the authors find that a positive relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability globally does not necessarily equate to improving nutritional stability in a given country.
- Charlie C. Nicholson
- , Benjamin F. Emery
- & Meredith T. Niles
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal scenarios of resource and emission savings from material efficiency in residential buildings and cars
Material production accounts for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. Here, the authors show that resource efficiency and circular-economy strategies can allow for cumulative emission reductions of 20–52 Gt CO2-eq from residential buildings and 13–26 Gt CO2e-eq from cars by 2050.
- Stefan Pauliuk
- , Niko Heeren
- & Edgar G. Hertwich
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Article
| Open AccessElectrocatalytic upcycling of polyethylene terephthalate to commodity chemicals and H2 fuel
Plastic upcycling to value-added products is of great interests. Here the authors investigate a nickel-cobalt phosphide electrocatalyst for electroreforming of polyethylene terephthalate plastic toward valuable potassium diformate, terephthalic acid, and H2 fuel.
- Hua Zhou
- , Yue Ren
- & Haohong Duan
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Comment
| Open AccessGreen infrastructure can limit but not solve air pollution injustice
Outdoor air pollution contributes to millions of deaths worldwide yet air pollution has differential exposures across racial/ethnic groups and socioeconomic status. While green infrastructure has the potential to decrease air pollution and provide other benefits to human health, vegetation alone cannot resolve health disparities related to air pollution injustice. We discuss how unequal access to green infrastructure can limit air quality improvements for marginalized communities and provide strategies to move forward.
- Viniece Jennings
- , Colleen E. Reid
- & Christina H. Fuller
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Article
| Open AccessGrassland ecological compensation policy in China improves grassland quality and increases herders’ income
China has introduced a payment-for-ecosytsem-services program called GECP which is focused on pastoral communities in grassland areas. Here, the authors combine remote sensing and household survey data to find small improvement in grassland quality and a significant positive effects on the income of herders.
- Lingling Hou
- , Fang Xia
- & Scott Rozelle
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Article
| Open AccessNo COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector
COVID-19 has decreased power sector emissions globally and in the United States. Here the authors assess whether such reductions would have occurred in the United States in the absence of the pandemic, as well as the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022.
- Max Luke
- , Priyanshi Somani
- & Stephen J. Lee
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Article
| Open AccessThe mortality cost of carbon
Climate change is expected to have impacts on human mortality, e.g. through increases in heat waves. Here, the author proposes a new metric to account for excess deaths from additional CO2 emissions, which allows to assess the mortality impacts of marginal emissions and leads to a substantial increase in the social costs of carbon.
- R. Daniel Bressler
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Article
| Open AccessPast and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources
A historical reconstruction of water use in Egypt shows the change in relative use of Nile water versus virtual water import, especially in the highly consumptive agriculture sector. A range of future projections of water demand are offered based on several plausible socioeconomic scenarios.
- Catherine A. Nikiel
- & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
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Article
| Open AccessKinship networks of seed exchange shape spatial patterns of plant virus diversity
This study combines ethnobotanical and epidemiological data to understand how social networks of seed exchange influence the genetic structure of the African cassava mosaic virus in Gabon. Results reveal contrasted patterns of viral diversity in patrilineal and matrilineal communities, consistent with cultural differences in modes of seed exchange.
- Marc Delêtre
- , Jean-Michel Lett
- & Charles Spillane
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Article
| Open AccessA generalizable and accessible approach to machine learning with global satellite imagery
This paper presents MOSAIKS, a system for planet-scale prediction of multiple outcomes using satellite imagery and machine learning (SIML). MOSAIKS generalizes across prediction domains and has the potential to enhance accessibility of SIML across research disciplines.
- Esther Rolf
- , Jonathan Proctor
- & Solomon Hsiang
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Article
| Open AccessTen-year panel data confirm generation gap but climate beliefs increase at similar rates across ages
It has been suggested that younger people care more about climate change than older people. Here, the authors present ten year panel data from New Zealand and show that despite a generation gap in starting levels, climate change beliefs have increased at similar rates across ages over the 2009-2018 period.
- Taciano L. Milfont
- , Elena Zubielevitch
- & Chris G. Sibley
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Article
| Open AccessHigher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies
Access to low cost finance is vital for developing economies’ transition to green energy. Here the authors show how modelled decarbonization pathways for developing economies are disproportionately impacted by different weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions.
- Nadia Ameli
- , Olivier Dessens
- & Michael Grubb
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal LiDAR land elevation data reveal greatest sea-level rise vulnerability in the tropics
Predicting the risk of flooding in coastal environments relies on accurate land elevation data, but this is not available in many parts of the world. Here the authors apply a global lowland digital terrain model derived from satellite LiDAR and determine that the regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise are in the tropics.
- A. Hooijer
- & R. Vernimmen
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Article
| Open AccessApproximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island)
Summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates can be used to estimate past demography, but methods to test for associations with environmental change are lacking. Here, DiNapoli et al. propose an approach using Approximate Bayesian Computation and illustrate it in a case study of Rapa Nui.
- Robert J. DiNapoli
- , Enrico R. Crema
- & Terry L. Hunt
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Article
| Open AccessCommercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways
Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial (harvested) forestry is disputed. Here the authors apply dynamic life cycle assessment to show that new commercial conifer forests can achieve up to 269% more GHG mitigation than semi-natural forests, over 100 years.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , John R. Healey
- & David Styles
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Article
| Open AccessEvaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Aviation contributes to climate change and ways to reduce its emissions are widely debated. Here, the authors assess the effects of technology improvements and the use of sustainable aviation fuels and find that even when these are considered aviation is unlikely to meet emissions goals in line with the Paris Agreement.
- Volker Grewe
- , Arvind Gangoli Rao
- & Katrin Dahlmann
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessInadequate methods undermine a study of malaria, deforestation and trade
- Nikolas Kuschnig
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Review Article
| Open AccessCity footprints and SDGs provide untapped potential for assessing city sustainability
Whether or not a city achieves absolute sustainability is difficult to assess with existing frameworks. Here the authors, in a review, show that a further integration of consumption-based accounting and benchmarking is necessary to aid the monitoring and assessment of Sustainable Development Goals in cities.
- Thomas Wiedmann
- & Cameron Allen
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Article
| Open AccessImpact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization of the electric power sector
Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air can influence power sector planning and operations. Here the authors show how carbon removal options lower costs of deep decarbonization and alter electric sector investments.
- John E. T. Bistline
- & Geoffrey J. Blanford
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Article
| Open AccessCross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought
European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders. Here the authors find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change.
- Ertug Ercin
- , Ted I. E. Veldkamp
- & Johannes Hunink
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Article
| Open AccessSource sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales
Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the most important environmental health risk factors in many regions. Here, the authors present an assessment of PM2.5 emission sources and the related health impacts across global to sub-national scales and find that over 1 million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating PM2.5 mass associated with fossil fuel combustion emissions.
- Erin E. McDuffie
- , Randall V. Martin
- & Michael Brauer
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Article
| Open AccessProjected losses of ecosystem services in the US disproportionately affect non-white and lower-income populations
Social inequalities may be reflected in how ecosystem services are distributed among groups of people. Here the authors estimate the distribution of three ecosystem services across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the US between 2020 and 2100, finding that non-white and lower-income groups disproportionately bear the loss of ecosystem service benefits.
- Jesse D. Gourevitch
- , Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez
- & Taylor H. Ricketts
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Article
| Open AccessLimited application of reflective surfaces can mitigate urban heat pollution
Reflective surfaces have been recommended to mitigate urban heat pollution but can be expensive to apply at a large scale. This work shows that applying them to only the upstream half of a neighborhood can lead to disporportionately high cooling benefits relative to cost.
- Sushobhan Sen
- & Lev Khazanovich
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Article
| Open AccessPersistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies
Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies have generated conflicting assessments; as social welfare is affected by regional heterogeneity. Here the authors show that economically optimal pathways are consistent with climate stabilization but are characterized by persistent economic inequalities due to climate damages.
- Paolo Gazzotti
- , Johannes Emmerling
- & Massimo Tavoni
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Perspective
| Open AccessFinancing a sustainable ocean economy
The ocean supports many livelihoods, but this is currently not sustainable with pressures on the climate and ecosystems. Here, in this perspective, the authors outline the barriers and solutions for financing a sustainable ocean economy.
- U. Rashid Sumaila
- , Melissa Walsh
- & Junjie Zhang