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| Open AccessChallenges and ways forward for sustainable weather and climate services in Africa
Sustainability of African weather and climate information can only be ensured by investing in improved scientific understanding, observational data, and model capability. These requirements must be underpinned by capacity development, knowledge management; and partnerships of co-production, communication and coordination.
- Benjamin Lamptey
- , Salah SAHABI ABED
- & Erik W. Kolstad
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Article
| Open AccessAccounting for albedo change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration
Restoring tree cover is a prominent climate solution but can cause global warming due to changes in albedo. This paper maps albedo and carbon changes from restoring tree cover to highlight where the greatest net climate benefits can be achieved.
- Natalia Hasler
- , Christopher A. Williams
- & Susan C. Cook-Patton
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Article
| Open AccessThe Persian plateau served as hub for Homo sapiens after the main out of Africa dispersal
The timing and chronology of the movement of Homo sapiens after migration out of Africa remains unclear. Here, the authors combine a genetic approach with a palaeoecological model to estimate that the Persian Plateau could have been a hub for migration out of Africa, suggesting the environment may have been suitable for population maintenance.
- Leonardo Vallini
- , Carlo Zampieri
- & Luca Pagani
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of mountains in shaping the global meridional overturning circulation
This paper presents quantitative evaluation of the role of different continental mountains in shaping the global meridional overturning circulation. The Tibetan Plateau is likely to have been crucial in molding the global thermohaline circulation.
- Haijun Yang
- , Rui Jiang
- & Jiangping Huang
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Article
| Open AccessAtmospheric isoprene measurements reveal larger-than-expected Southern Ocean emissions
High atmospheric concentrations of isoprene have been observed in the Southern Ocean. The authors investigate their potential marine sources and show how these emissions impact the modelling of atmospheric processes and composition in remote environments.
- Valerio Ferracci
- , James Weber
- & Neil. R. P. Harris
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Article
| Open AccessElevation-dependent pattern of net CO2 uptake across China
The authors employed 203 eddy covariance towers to reveal a negative and varying elevation dependent pattern of CO2 uptake, under changes in Earth’s climate and human activities.
- Da Wei
- , Jing Tao
- & Xiaodan Wang
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Article
| Open AccessPitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes
The authors show that a regularly used temperature extreme metric leads to a systematic underestimation of the expected extreme frequency of up to − 75% and propagates to other derived metrics. A simple bias correction is presented to eliminate this error.
- Lukas Brunner
- & Aiko Voigt
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Article
| Open AccessClimate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes
Earth system modeling is used to project future changes in North American wetlands. Climate change will reduce inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes, with substantial summer drying and shrinkage in cold regions.
- Donghui Xu
- , Gautam Bisht
- & L. Ruby Leung
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Article
| Open AccessThe potential of urban irrigation for counteracting carbon-climate feedback
This study shows that urban irrigation is capable of achieving the environmental co-benefit of heat mitigation and carbon neutrality and has the potential to counteract the climate–carbon feedback loop in the U.S. urban environment.
- Peiyuan Li
- , Zhi-Hua Wang
- & Chenghao Wang
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessCoastal shoreline change assessments at global scales
- Jonathan A. Warrick
- , Daniel Buscombe
- & Adam P. Young
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Coastal shoreline change assessments at global scales
- Rafael Almar
- , Julien Boucharel
- & Erwin W. J. Bergsma
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Article
| Open AccessMarine heatwaves disrupt ecosystem structure and function via altered food webs and energy flux
This work leverages a new diet database and six long term monitoring efforts of 361 taxa to build comparable pre- and post-heatwave ecosystem models. The study provides empirical demonstration of changes in ecosystem-wide patterns of energy flux and biomass in response to marine heatwaves.
- Dylan G. E. Gomes
- , James J. Ruzicka
- & Joshua D. Stewart
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Article
| Open AccessAerosol forcing regulating recent decadal change of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau
Inhomogeneous aerosol forcing in Eurasia dominates the recent decadal increase of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau by decreasing the water vapor export from its eastern boundary.
- Zhili Wang
- , Yadong Lei
- & Xiaoye Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessDeep-sea hiatus record reveals orbital pacing by 2.4 Myr eccentricity grand cycles
Cenozoic deep-sea hiatuses reveal a ~2.4 Myr eccentricity signal corresponding to orbitally-forced intensification of deep-water circulation. The signal is disrupted by a chaotic orbital transition in the Solar System at about 56 Ma.
- Adriana Dutkiewicz
- , Slah Boulila
- & R. Dietmar Müller
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Article
| Open AccessSystematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change
Global warming targets are considered inadequate to protect coral reefs, but this prognosis is based on models with similar approaches. This systematic review of studies that project coral responses to climate change found that divergent modelling methodologies had discrepancies in coral reef outcomes, and that those used for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other methods.
- Shannon G. Klein
- , Cassandra Roch
- & Carlos M. Duarte
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Article
| Open AccessAtlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability
The summer jet stream above East Asia has become more variable in recent decades, leading to weather and climate extremes across Eurasia. The authors show that a Scandinavian Pattern in preceding February is driving the strong variability.
- Lifei Lin
- , Chundi Hu
- & Dake Chen
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Arctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been increasing faster over the Atlantic sector than the Pacific sector in recent decades. The observed phase shift of interdecadal climate oscillations is key to explaining this disparity in Arctic AR trends.
- Weiming Ma
- , Hailong Wang
- & Wieslaw Maslowski
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Satellite artifacts modulate FireCCILT11 global burned area
- Adrián Cardil
- , Marcos Rodrigues
- & Sergio de-Miguel
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessSatellite artifacts modulate FireCCILT11 global burned area
- Louis Giglio
- & David P. Roy
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Article
| Open AccessCross-basin and cross-taxa patterns of marine community tropicalization and deborealization in warming European seas
Climate change is shifting species distribution globally. Here, the authors track four decades of changes in the thermal affinity of 1,817 marine species across European seas, showing that most communities have responded to ongoing ocean warming via increases of warm-water species or decreases of cold-water species.
- Guillem Chust
- , Ernesto Villarino
- & Martin Lindegren
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Comment
| Open AccessPlastic pollution amplified by a warming climate
Climate change and plastic pollution are interconnected global challenges. Rising temperatures and moisture alter plastic characteristics, contributing to waste, microplastic generation, and release of hazardous substances. Urgent attention is essential to comprehend and address these climate-driven effects and their consequences.
- Xin-Feng Wei
- , Wei Yang
- & Mikael S. Hedenqvist
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Article
| Open AccessCircum-Antarctic bottom water formation mediated by tides and topographic waves
This study identifies the key roles of tides and topographic waves in forming Antarctic bottom water in different regions. The Antarctic coastline is divided into four overflow dynamical regimes, providing guidance for future observations.
- Xianxian Han
- , Andrew L. Stewart
- & Arnold L. Gordon
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Article
| Open AccessHigh-latitude platform carbonate deposition constitutes a climate conundrum at the terminal Mesoproterozoic
Deposition of 1.2-billion-year-old Indian limestone in shallow seas near the poles imply balmy conditions of more than 15 °C and significantly higher atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, which expands the spectrum of Earth’s climatic extremes.
- Michiel O. de Kock
- , Ingrit Malatji
- & L. P. Maré
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Article
| Open AccessReconciling ice core CO2 and land-use change following New World-Old World contact
Ice core records of gradually declining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) for the period 1450–1700 CE support modelled scenarios of large-scale reorganisation of land use in the Americas following New World-Old World contact.
- Amy C. F. King
- , Thomas K. Bauska
- & Matthew B. Osman
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Article
| Open AccessSustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations
Atmospheric measurements show that China’s emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, sulfur hexafluoride, grew rapidly between 2011 and 2021. This rise could offset some of China’s progress towards its greenhouse gas emission reduction goal.
- Minde An
- , Ronald G. Prinn
- & Matthew Rigby
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Article
| Open AccessThe inclusion of Amazon mangroves in Brazil’s REDD+ program
A new study shows that deforestation of Amazon mangroves releases up to four times more carbon dioxide when compared to emissions arising from terrestrial biomes. This study set a foundation for the use of mangroves in Brazil’s international policy agreements.
- Angelo F. Bernardino
- , Ana Carolina A. Mazzuco
- & J. Boone Kauffman
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| Open AccessEmergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming
The authors combine climate simulations with observations to estimate carbon budgets which are better constrained and find they are more than 10% larger than the mean value from CMIP6 models.
- Peter M. Cox
- , Mark S. Williamson
- & Rebecca M. Varney
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Article
| Open AccessGeographic range of plants drives long-term climate change
The geographic spread of plants exerted an important control over ancient climate change by modifying continental weathering and carbon burial rates. This effect is investigated using a new coupled vegetation-climate-biogeochemical model.
- Khushboo Gurung
- , Katie J. Field
- & Benjamin J. W. Mills
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessField experiments show no consistent reductions in soil microbial carbon in response to warming
- Chao Yue
- , Jinshi Jian
- & Ben Bond-Lamberty
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Article
| Open AccessCCl4 emissions in eastern China during 2021–2022 and exploration of potential new sources
The Montreal Protocol globally phased out ozone-layer depleting CCl4 by 2010. However, atmospheric measurements show eastern China emitted ~7.6 gigagrams/year in 2021–2022. Further, industrial sources of ongoing CCL4 emissions are identified.
- Bowei Li
- , Jiahuan Huang
- & Xuekun Fang
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Article
| Open AccessModern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years
Speleothems from the Savanna region in Brazil documents the occurrence of an unprecedented long-term drought driven by anthropogenic forcing. Staring in the 1970´s the current drought is the most severe that has struck the region in the past 700 years.
- Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis
- , Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque
- & Valdir Felipe Novello
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Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic carbon pathways towards the North Atlantic interior revealed by Argo-O2, neural networks and back-calculations
Large emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide have been partly absorbed by the oceans. Here, the authors use Argo-O2 floats combined with existing methods to study the distribution of this anthropogenic CO2 in the North Atlantic Ocean.
- Rémy Asselot
- , Lidia I. Carracedo
- & Fiz F. Pérez
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Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases
The authors use rain gauge measurements to derive data-driven estimates of how climate change impacts extreme rain in the US. They find that the expected rainfall increases driven by burning fossil fuels are offset with drying caused by anthropogenic aerosols.
- Mark D. Risser
- , William D. Collins
- & Paul A. Ullrich
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Article
| Open AccessReactive aldehyde chemistry explains the missing source of hydroxyl radicals
Hydroxyl radicals (OH) determine the tropospheric self-cleansing capacity. This study reveals that reactive aldehyde chemistry plays an important role in OH formation and helps narrow the gap between ambient OH observations and model simulations.
- Xinping Yang
- , Haichao Wang
- & Yuanhang Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessHistorical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming
The tropical Pacific has exhibited a complex warming pattern since the 1950s. The authors here identify the critical role of the wind-driven ocean circulation in this warming pattern, and especially for the enhanced warming of the eastern Pacific.
- Shuo Fu
- , Shineng Hu
- & Yiqun Tian
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Article
| Open AccessDeglaciation-enhanced mantle CO2 fluxes at Yellowstone imply positive climate feedback
The retreat of the #Yellowstone ice cap reduced mantle pressures. Using models, we predict this enhanced mantle melting 19-fold, segregating a globally-significant mass of CO2 and potentially contributing to feedbacks between deglaciation and climate.
- Fiona Clerc
- , Mark D. Behn
- & Brent M. Minchew
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| Open AccessAtlantic Water warming increases melt below Northeast Greenland’s last floating ice tongue
The 79 North Glacier features Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue, which has been thinning from below in the last few decades. Here, the drivers of the upward trend and interannual variability of basal melt are disentangled.
- Claudia Wekerle
- , Rebecca McPherson
- & Torsten Kanzow
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| Open AccessTransition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake
It is unclear how indirect CO2 effect – via associated climate change – on vegetation carbon uptake changes globally. Here, the authors show that such initial positive effect has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century.
- Zefeng Chen
- , Weiguang Wang
- & Alessandro Cescatti
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Article
| Open AccessSpatial patterns of Holocene temperature changes over mid-latitude Eurasia
New alkenone results and existing temperature records together show contrasting Holocene temperature trends and thus display spatial patterns over mid-latitude Eurasia, with implications for the Holocene temperature conundrum.
- Jiawei Jiang
- , Bowen Meng
- & Zhonghui Liu
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| Open AccessReal-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change
Over 13 years, coastal Louisiana’s wetlands have been endangered by a sea-level rise rate comparable to what is expected later this century. While the rate may not persist over the next few decades, this natural experiment indicates a 75% drowning of these wetlands by 2070 under current carbon emissions.
- Guandong Li
- , Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
- & Sönke Dangendorf
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| Open AccessSediment discharge from Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers is linked with surface melt
As Greenland’s huge calving glaciers melt, they pump sediment deep into biologically rich fjords. In this study, the quantity and path of this sediment is tracked and an empirical relationship is found between sediment and the amount of surface melt on the glacier.
- Camilla S. Andresen
- , Nanna B. Karlsson
- & Ida E. Gundel
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| Open AccessPolar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period
Declining Arctic sea ice is increasing polar bear land use. Here, the authors follow 20 different polar bears on land over 3 years and measure daily energy expenditure finding that despite behavioural and diet plasticity the bears are at risk of starvation.
- Anthony M. Pagano
- , Karyn D. Rode
- & Charles T. Robbins
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| Open AccessMapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory
Due to fundamental anatomical and biochemical differences, C3 and C4 plant species tend to differ in their biogeography and response to climate change. Here, the authors use global observations and optimality theory to map patterns and temporal trends in C4 species distribution and the contribution of C4 plants to global photosynthesis.
- Xiangzhong Luo
- , Haoran Zhou
- & Christopher J. Still
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Article
| Open AccessDansgaard-Oeschger cycles of the penultimate and last glacial period recorded in stalagmites from Türkiye
Abrupt millennial-scale climate variability, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, characterized the last glacial. Stalagmite data from northern Türkiye show D-O events for the penultimate glacial period, though they were less frequent.
- F. Held
- , H. Cheng
- & D. Fleitmann
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Article
| Open AccessHybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon
In this work, authors propose a synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art deterministic forecasting model with artificial intelligence for predicting lightning occurrences. The strategy shows efficient predictive capabilities at medium-range forecast horizons.
- Mattia Cavaiola
- , Federico Cassola
- & Andrea Mazzino
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Article
| Open AccessShear margins in upper half of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream were established two millennia ago
The flow of ice streams leaves traces in the stratigraphy of the ice sheets. Made visible by radar, they reveal the history of the upper North East Greenland Ice Stream. The ice stream is found to have existed in its current form for only about the last 2000 years.
- Daniela Jansen
- , Steven Franke
- & Paul D. Bons
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Article
| Open AccessContribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe
West Nile Virus is emerging as an important pathogen in Europe, likely driven by recent climate and land-use changes. Here, the authors estimate the extent of the climate change-driven impact by modelling the change in West Nile Virus ecological suitability across the continent in the absence of climate change.
- Diana Erazo
- , Luke Grant
- & Simon Dellicour
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Article
| Open AccessProcess-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models
This study shows that trees are likely to change clouds in the future and reveals that climate models struggle to accurately represent the relevant processes of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions over forests.
- Sara M. Blichner
- , Taina Yli-Juuti
- & Ilona Riipinen
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Article
| Open AccessEast Antarctic warming forced by ice loss during the Last Interglacial
Climate simulations of the Last Interglacial show that Antarctic ice loss induces warming of East Antarctica. Meltwater equivalent to the ice loss induces warming of the subsurface. Both effects can further enhance Antarctic ice sheet deterioration
- David K. Hutchinson
- , Laurie Menviel
- & Andrew McC. Hogg