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| Open AccessPitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes
The authors show that a regularly used temperature extreme metric leads to a systematic underestimation of the expected extreme frequency of up to − 75% and propagates to other derived metrics. A simple bias correction is presented to eliminate this error.
- Lukas Brunner
- & Aiko Voigt
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Article
| Open AccessAtlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability
The summer jet stream above East Asia has become more variable in recent decades, leading to weather and climate extremes across Eurasia. The authors show that a Scandinavian Pattern in preceding February is driving the strong variability.
- Lifei Lin
- , Chundi Hu
- & Dake Chen
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Article
| Open AccessThe role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Arctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been increasing faster over the Atlantic sector than the Pacific sector in recent decades. The observed phase shift of interdecadal climate oscillations is key to explaining this disparity in Arctic AR trends.
- Weiming Ma
- , Hailong Wang
- & Wieslaw Maslowski
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| Open AccessSustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations
Atmospheric measurements show that China’s emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, sulfur hexafluoride, grew rapidly between 2011 and 2021. This rise could offset some of China’s progress towards its greenhouse gas emission reduction goal.
- Minde An
- , Ronald G. Prinn
- & Matthew Rigby
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Article
| Open AccessCCl4 emissions in eastern China during 2021–2022 and exploration of potential new sources
The Montreal Protocol globally phased out ozone-layer depleting CCl4 by 2010. However, atmospheric measurements show eastern China emitted ~7.6 gigagrams/year in 2021–2022. Further, industrial sources of ongoing CCL4 emissions are identified.
- Bowei Li
- , Jiahuan Huang
- & Xuekun Fang
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| Open AccessReactive aldehyde chemistry explains the missing source of hydroxyl radicals
Hydroxyl radicals (OH) determine the tropospheric self-cleansing capacity. This study reveals that reactive aldehyde chemistry plays an important role in OH formation and helps narrow the gap between ambient OH observations and model simulations.
- Xinping Yang
- , Haichao Wang
- & Yuanhang Zhang
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| Open AccessAnthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases
The authors use rain gauge measurements to derive data-driven estimates of how climate change impacts extreme rain in the US. They find that the expected rainfall increases driven by burning fossil fuels are offset with drying caused by anthropogenic aerosols.
- Mark D. Risser
- , William D. Collins
- & Paul A. Ullrich
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Article
| Open AccessHybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon
In this work, authors propose a synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art deterministic forecasting model with artificial intelligence for predicting lightning occurrences. The strategy shows efficient predictive capabilities at medium-range forecast horizons.
- Mattia Cavaiola
- , Federico Cassola
- & Andrea Mazzino
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| Open AccessProcess-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models
This study shows that trees are likely to change clouds in the future and reveals that climate models struggle to accurately represent the relevant processes of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions over forests.
- Sara M. Blichner
- , Taina Yli-Juuti
- & Ilona Riipinen
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| Open AccessAccurate nowcasting of cloud cover at solar photovoltaic plants using geostationary satellite images
Accurate nowcasting of cloud cover or fraction and its movement remains a significant challenge for stable solar photovoltaic electricity generation. Here, the authors combine continuous radiance images with high spatio-temporal resolutions to develop a nowcasting algorithm for predicting cloud cover at a leading time of 0–4 h.
- Pan Xia
- , Lu Zhang
- & Shengjie Jia
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| Open AccessIncreasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau
The weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. This weakening is partly driven by warming in the Tibetan Plateau.
- Jing Xu
- , Ping Zhao
- & Lu Liu
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| Open AccessA stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods
Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction.
- Ruhua Zhang
- , Wen Zhou
- & Jiali Luo
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| Open AccessRobust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming
In this paper, the authors reveal a robust weakening of the subtropical atmospheric circulation across CMIP6 models driven by global-mean surface warming, which is partially offset by the direct CO2 effect.
- Shijie Zhou
- , Ping Huang
- & Peng Hu
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| Open AccessDecadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice
A decadal-scale oscillatory pattern is identified that is a dominant mode of Antarctic sea ice variability. This mode is primarily driven by tropical-polar connections, offering insights into the multi-year predictability of Antarctic sea ice.
- Yusen Liu
- , Cheng Sun
- & Xichen Li
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| Open AccessCalifornia’s zero-emission vehicle adoption brings air quality benefits yet equity gaps persist
Zero-emission vehicle adoption brings near-roadway air quality benefits to all communities in California, yet equity gaps persist in disadvantaged communities, calling for targeted policies.
- Qiao Yu
- , Brian Yueshuai He
- & Yifang Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessOcean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus
This paper shows the inherent coupling of winter cold extremes over land and marine heatwaves in the past decade. These events are projected to recur with increased frequency, especially when ocean fronts undergo anomalous decadal warming.
- Mi-Kyung Sung
- , Soon-Il An
- & Minhee Chang
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| Open AccessMiddle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan
In recent decades, land warming over the Middle East and a northward shift of the low-level jet in the atmosphere have led to unprecedented summer monsoon rainfall increase over Pakistan and northwestern India, areas that used to be arid to semi-arid.
- Baosheng Li
- , Lei Zhou
- & Raghu Murtugudde
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| Open AccessPotential drivers of the recent large Antarctic ozone holes
The record-breaking ozone holes of recent years contribute to a steady decline of mid-spring ozone in the Antarctic, contrary to signs of early-spring recovery. Changes in descending air at the core of the ozone hole might be the driver.
- Hannah E. Kessenich
- , Annika Seppälä
- & Craig J. Rodger
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Article
| Open AccessEconomic valuation of temperature-related mortality attributed to urban heat islands in European cities
Urban heat islands have the greatest acute impacts on human mortality risk during extreme heat. However, protracted cold seasons result in greater annually integrated protective effects in most European cities under the current climate.
- Wan Ting Katty Huang
- , Pierre Masselot
- & Gabriele Manoli
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| Open AccessAerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality
Future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather toward carbon neutrality. Aerosol impacts far outweigh those of greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone.
- Pinya Wang
- , Yang Yang
- & Hong Liao
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Article
| Open AccessOrigin of outer tropical cyclone rainbands
Convectively active, hazardous rainbands within tropical cyclones are shown to originate primarily from outside the inner core of the cyclone. This outer-origin dominance is partly attributed to squall-line processes and deserves future attention.
- Cheng-Ku Yu
- , Che-Yu Lin
- & Chi-Hang Pun
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| Open AccessOveremphasized role of preceding strong El Niño in generating multi-year La Niña events
This study shows the crucial role of subtropical ENSO dynamics linked to the North Pacific Meridional Mode in generating multi-year La Niña events, challenging the traditional views that emphasized the role of El Niño amplitude in the preceding year.
- Ji-Won Kim
- , Jin-Yi Yu
- & Baijun Tian
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| Open AccessWindows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022
This paper highlights the potential for improved monitoring and physical understanding to identify windows of opportunity for more confident seasonal forecasts and early warnings of regional climate extremes, such as the Pakistan floods of 2022.
- Nick Dunstone
- , Doug M. Smith
- & Adam A. Scaife
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| Open AccessMoisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate
Despite hemispherically different responses, high-resolution model simulations used in this study show that moisture-related variables are the main regulators of tropical cyclone frequency under both orbital and greenhouse gas forcing.
- Pavan Harika Raavi
- , Jung-Eun Chu
- & Kevin J. E. Walsh
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| Open AccessEnhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming
Using output from climate models, this study shows that a wetter mean state over the off-equatorial eastern Pacific is the single key driver of the enhanced impact of northwestern hemispheric precursors on ENSO under anthropogenic global warming.
- Hyun-Su Jo
- & Yoo-Geun Ham
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| Open AccessFuture precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect
A new emergent constraint on precipitation projection, based on a unified surface-energy-balance perspective that links hydrological and climate sensitivity to climatological cloud distribution, suggests a higher increase in global mean precipitation under climate change.
- Wenyu Zhou
- , L. Ruby Leung
- & Jian Lu
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| Open AccessEnhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events
The study identifies windows of opportunity for multi-year climate predictions, depending on the state of ENSO. Predictions started during El Niño and La Niña exhibit higher skill than predictions started during neutral ENSO conditions.
- Yiling Liu
- , Markus. G. Donat
- & Carlos Delgado-Torres
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Article
| Open AccessMeteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems
Sundar and colleagues characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive resource adequacy failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by integrating power system and synoptic meteorology methods. They find that at 60% renewable penetration and across analyzed weather years, three high pressure patterns drive nearly all resource adequacy failures.
- Srihari Sundar
- , Michael T. Craig
- & Flavio Lehner
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| Open AccessWarming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation
This study, based on a large set of climate simulations, suggests a delay and reduction of hurricane formation in a warmer climate, linked to the warming-induced contraction of tropical ascents that makes rainstorms more concentrated near the equator.
- Gan Zhang
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| Open AccessTemperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe
Heat and moisture stress can reduce carbon uptake by forests. Here, the authors quantify this effect for the extreme 2022 European summer drought. The widespread reduction of photosynthesis exceeded the large local carbon release by intense fires.
- Auke M. van der Woude
- , Wouter Peters
- & Ingrid T. Luijkx
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| Open AccessGlobal organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing
The effective hygroscopicity of organic matter and inorganic ions in atmospheric aerosols can be efficiently and accurately parameterized by global average values to constrain a critically important aspect in climate and Earth system models
- Mira L. Pöhlker
- , Christopher Pöhlker
- & Ulrich Pöschl
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Article
| Open AccessRegionally sourced bioaerosols drive high-temperature ice nucleating particles in the Arctic
Primary bioaerosols, important for clouds and climate, were measured at an Arctic mountain site and traced to regional sources. Their seasonality was observed to peak in summer, where they significantly contribute to high-temperature ice nucleating particles.
- Gabriel Pereira Freitas
- , Kouji Adachi
- & Paul Zieger
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Article
| Open AccessEast Asian summer rainfall stimulated by subseasonal Indian monsoonal heating
The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are found to be synchronized at the subseasonal timescale via a Rossby wave triggered by the Indian summer monsoon heating. The impact on East Asian precipitation varies with the subtropical jet structure.
- Shixue Li
- , Tomonori Sato
- & Wenkai Guo
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Article
| Open AccessPropagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures
The study reveals distinct extreme rainfall propagation modes driven by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Indo-Pacific region. These are influenced by Pacific sea surface temperatures and offer the potential for early warnings.
- Felix M. Strnad
- , Jakob Schlör
- & Bedartha Goswami
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Article
| Open AccessDeciphering local and regional hydroclimate resolves contradicting evidence on the Asian monsoon evolution
Distinguishing local hydrological, cave internal, and regional monsoon signals in speleothem records resolves disagreements among proxy reconstructions and illuminates the Holocene evolution of summer and winter monsoon in Southeast Asia.
- Annabel Wolf
- , Vasile Ersek
- & Anh Duc Trinh
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Article
| Open AccessNorth African humid periods over the past 800,000 years
A climate model identifies that periodic wet phases in the Sahara, termed North African Humid Periods, were driven by Earths orbital variations and were suppressed during glacial periods due to the influence of extensive ice sheets.
- Edward Armstrong
- , Miikka Tallavaara
- & Paul J. Valdes
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Article
| Open AccessBlack carbon scavenging by low-level Arctic clouds
Black carbon in the Arctic has pronounced climatic effects, whilst residing in the atmosphere or after being deposited. Here long-term observations of black carbon inside Arctic clouds are used to study their seasonality, sources and links to other meteorological parameters.
- Paul Zieger
- , Dominic Heslin-Rees
- & Radovan Krejci
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Article
| Open AccessDecadal decrease in Los Angeles methane emissions is much smaller than bottom-up estimates
Top down atmospheric measurements reveal a large difference between observed methane emissions and those reported from bottom up estimates of natural gas leakage for California.
- Zhao-Cheng Zeng
- , Thomas Pongetti
- & Stanley P. Sander
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| Open AccessReversal of trends in global fine particulate matter air pollution
Global fine particulate matter air pollution recently pivots from increase to decrease as inferred from satellite observations, driven by unprecedented exposure reduction in China and slowed exposure growth in South Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
- Chi Li
- , Aaron van Donkelaar
- & Randall V. Martin
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| Open AccessPacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean
The north Indian Ocean is a hotbed for Low Latitude Cyclones (LLCs; originating between 5°N and 11°N). This study finds a remarkable decline in the frequency of LLCs in recent decades modulated by the remote influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
- Shinto Roose
- , R. S. Ajayamohan
- & M. Rajeevan
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| Open AccessWeakened AMOC related to cooling and atmospheric circulation shifts in the last interglacial Eastern Mediterranean
The warm last interglacial serves as a period to investigate climate change associated with a weakened AMOC. Here the authors report evidence of Eastern Mediterranean cooling and accompanied atmospheric circulation shifts affecting rainfall.
- Elan J. Levy
- , Hubert B. Vonhof
- & Gerald H. Haug
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| Open AccessRecent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones has been occurring closer to land since 1980 due to climate change. This shift can degenerate the forecast skill and increase the danger that tropical cyclones pose to coastal regions.
- Yi Li
- , Youmin Tang
- & Qiang Wang
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Article
| Open AccessMolecular rearrangement of bicyclic peroxy radicals is a key route to aerosol from aromatics
The oxidation of aromatics contributes significantly to the formation of atmospheric aerosol. Using toluene as an example the authors demonstrate a molecular rearrangement channel in the oxidation mechanism and show that the bicyclic peroxy radicals are much less stable than previously thought and can lead to aerosol-forming low-volatility products with up to 9 oxygen atoms on sub-second timescales
- Siddharth Iyer
- , Avinash Kumar
- & Matti Rissanen
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| Open AccessNational quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations
High-resolution satellite data enables a unique verification of national methane emissions worldwide. Global estimates are 63 Tg a−1 for oil-gas, 30% higher than the UNFCCC reports due to under-reporting by four largest emitters, and 33 Tg a−1 for coal, consistent with previous estimates.
- Lu Shen
- , Daniel J. Jacob
- & Jintai Lin
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Article
| Open AccessFuture increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe
Storm severity indices of European winter storms in climate models show future increased storm losses in northwestern Europe, caused by changes in the location and intensity of storms, and increasing population.
- Alexander S. Little
- , Matthew D. K. Priestley
- & Jennifer L. Catto
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Article
| Open AccessOptimal reactive nitrogen control pathways identified for cost-effective PM2.5 mitigation in Europe
Reactive nitrogen (Nr) contributes strongly to PM2.5 air pollution in Europe. Here, authors identify diverse Nr control pathways for Europe depending on emission and pollution formation and a priority of NH3 control when costs are considered.
- Zehui Liu
- , Harald E. Rieder
- & Lin Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessUniversal alignment in turbulent pair dispersion
Turbulent pair dispersion is relevant for mixing processes such as microplastics transport in the ocean or dynamics of water droplets in clouds. The authors present a geometrical framework and empirical evidence that elucidate the universality of the process across scales, while forming a bridge with the classical Richardson theory.
- Ron Shnapp
- , Stefano Brizzolara
- & Markus Holzner
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Article
| Open AccessQBO deepens MJO convection
This paper shows that the vertical growth of deep convective systems within Madden-Julian oscillation envelopes is facilitated by mean state changes in the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere during easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation winters.
- Daeho Jin
- , Daehyun Kim
- & Lazaros Oreopoulos
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Article
| Open AccessRisks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections
Simultaneous harvest failures across crop-producing regions are major threats to global food security. A strongly meandering jet can trigger these, however, climate and crop models underestimate effects with consequences for climate risk assessments.
- Kai Kornhuber
- , Corey Lesk
- & Radley M. Horton