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| Open AccessPersisting volcanic ash particles impact stratospheric SO2 lifetime and aerosol optical properties
Volcanic ash is often neglected in climate simulations as it is assumed to have a short atmospheric lifetime. Here, the authors show a persistent super-micron ash layer after the Mt. Kelut eruption in 2014 that impacts the stratospheric sulfur burden and chemistry for over the first months after the eruption.
- Yunqian Zhu
- , Owen B. Toon
- & Sarah Woods
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Article
| Open AccessA less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections
The spatial pattern and global mean values of warming differ between different climate models, an issue that needs to be better understood in order to obtain reliable regional projections. Here, the authors show that ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks are the key processes that are responsible for this inter-model spread.
- Xiaoming Hu
- , Hanjie Fan
- & Song Yang
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| Open AccessLarge influence of dust on the Precambrian climate
Dust emissions are likely to increase significantly when land vegetation is absent, such as during the Precambrian period. Here, the authors use climate simulations to find that high dust emissions in the Precambrian could have cooled the global climate by ~10 °C.
- Peng Liu
- , Yonggang Liu
- & Yongyun Hu
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Article
| Open AccessDynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern
The asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña episodes in the tropical Pacific is often not well represented in models. Here, the authors show that this asymmetry is related to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating and that a realistic representation of this process can potentially improve tropical climate projections.
- Michiya Hayashi
- , Fei-Fei Jin
- & Malte F. Stuecker
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| Open AccessUnfinished business after five decades of ozone-layer science and policy
The Montreal Protocol has begun to heal the Antarctic ozone hole and avoided more global warming than any other treaty. Still, recent research shows that new unexpected emissions of several chlorofluorocarbons, carbon tetrachloride, and hydrofluorocarbons, are undermining the Protocol’s success. It is time for policymakers to plug the holes in the ozone hole treaty.
- Susan Solomon
- , Joseph Alcamo
- & A. R. Ravishankara
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| Open AccessExposure to air pollution and scarlet fever resurgence in China: a six-year surveillance study
The reason for a re-emergence of scarlet fever in China remains unclear. Here the authors show that the number of scarlet fever cases surged in 2011 peaking in 2018, this correlates with an increase in NO2 and O3 but does not necessarily imply causation.
- Yonghong Liu
- , Hui Ding
- & Shelan Liu
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| Open AccessEnd of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia
The mid-Holocene has seen a number of climate shifts, which have been associated with societal changes. Here, the authors investigate in a centuries long megadrought in Southeast Asia during the mid-Holocene, possibly caused by the end of the Green Sahara period.
- Michael L. Griffiths
- , Kathleen R. Johnson
- & Natasha Sekhon
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| Open AccessA joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming
Global mean sea surface surface temperature shows decadal fluctuations superimposed to the warming trend whose causes are still debated. Here, the authors provide a quantification of relative contributions of different drivers and conclude that both internal and externally-forced variability play a comparable role.
- Giovanni Liguori
- , Shayne McGregor
- & Gerald A. Meehl
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Article
| Open AccessSurface cooling caused by rare but intense near-inertial wave induced mixing in the tropical Atlantic
How the tropical mixed layer of the ocean reacts to near-inertial waves has rarely been observed directly. Here, the authors present new data that shows strongly elevated vertical diffusive heat flux in the presence of near-inertial waves, causing a cooling of the mixed layer that is particularly strong in summer.
- Rebecca Hummels
- , Marcus Dengler
- & Peter Brandt
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| Open AccessAtmospheric transport is a major pathway of microplastics to remote regions
Plastic pollution is a critical concern across diverse ecosystems, yet most research has focused on terrestrial and aquatic transport, neglecting other mechanisms. Here the authors show that atmospheric transport is a major pathway for road plastic pollution over remote regions.
- N. Evangeliou
- , H. Grythe
- & A. Stohl
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Article
| Open AccessDelayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation
Strong mitigation of anthropogenic emissions is necessary, but it is not clear how fast these efforts would lead to temperature changes. Here, the authors find that there is a substantial delay between reductions of emissions and a detectable change in surface temperature for a number of climate forcers.
- B. H. Samset
- , J. S. Fuglestvedt
- & M. T. Lund
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| Open AccessStable machine-learning parameterization of subgrid processes for climate modeling at a range of resolutions
Machine learning has been used to represent small-scale processes, such as clouds, in atmospheric models but this can lead to instability in simulations of climate. Here, the authors demonstrate a use of machine learning in an atmospheric model that leads to stable simulations of climate at a range of grid spacings.
- Janni Yuval
- & Paul A. O’Gorman
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| Open AccessEffects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones
How climate change affects the translation speed of tropical cyclones has been the subject of intensive debate. Here, the authors use models to show that future regional changes in the steering winds lead to faster-moving tropical cyclones as they make landfall in Texas.
- Pedram Hassanzadeh
- , Chia-Ying Lee
- & Laurence Y. Yeung
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Article
| Open AccessMineral dust increases the habitability of terrestrial planets but confounds biomarker detection
In this study, the authors investigate in the influence of atmospheric dust on the habitability of exoplanets. They find that atmospheric dust may postpone planetary water loss; for tidally locked planets in particular, dust can significantly widen the habitable zone by cooling the day side and warming the night side.
- Ian A. Boutle
- , Manoj Joshi
- & Krisztian Kohary
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| Open AccessOcean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States
In the 1930s, the US was hit by a severe drought and record-breaking heatwaves in a period known as the Dust Bowl. Here, the authors present model experiments that suggest that warm North Atlantic temperatures and human devegetation played key roles in making these heatwaves particularly strong.
- Tim Cowan
- , Gabriele C. Hegerl
- & Benjamin Ng
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| Open AccessFast sulfate formation from oxidation of SO2 by NO2 and HONO observed in Beijing haze
How sulfur dioxide emitted through coal combustion is oxidized to sulfate particles during winter haze pollution events has been the subject of debate. Here, the authors show that rapid oxidation takes place by nitrogen dioxide and nitrous acid, producing nitrous oxide together with sulfate.
- Junfeng Wang
- , Jingyi Li
- & Daniel J. Jacob
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| Open AccessEmergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High
Model biases and internal variability are a cause for uncertainties in climate projections. Here, the authors show that 45% of projected uncertainty in the western Pacific Subtropical High can be reduced by correcting sea surface temperature biases in the equatorial Pacific and beneath marine stratocumulus clouds.
- Xiaolong Chen
- , Tianjun Zhou
- & Minghuai Wang
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| Open AccessSocial-media and newspaper reports reveal large-scale meteorological drivers of floods on Sumatra
Floods are an important natural disaster on the Indonesian island of Sumatra, but their driving mechanisms are not well understood. Here, the authors utilize data from twitter messages and local newspaper reports to show that convectively coupled Kelvin waves play a key role in promoting floods on Sumatra.
- Dariusz B. Baranowski
- , Maria K. Flatau
- & Marzuki
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| Open AccessPhysical drivers of the summer 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave
Marine heatwaves are threatening ocean ecosystems with increasing frequency, but their seasonal drivers are unknown. Here, the authors determine that summertime blobs of warm temperature anomalies in the Pacific occur as a result of prolonged weakening in the North Pacific High-Pressure System.
- Dillon J. Amaya
- , Arthur J. Miller
- & Yu Kosaka
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| Open AccessQuantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate
Following international agreements, the use of chlorofluorocarbons in production is supposed to be phased out. Here, the authors present a new estimate of these products already in use and their emissions and show that they are larger than expected and that not recovering these banks leads to a substantial delay in the polar ozone hole recovery.
- Megan Lickley
- , Susan Solomon
- & Kane Stone
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| Open AccessCausal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections
Algorithms to assess causal relationships in data sets have seen increasing applications in climate science in recent years. Here, the authors show that these techniques can help to systematically evaluate the performance of climate models and, as a result, to constrain uncertainties in future climate change projections.
- Peer Nowack
- , Jakob Runge
- & Joanna D. Haigh
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Article
| Open AccessTropical cyclone rainbands can trigger meteotsunamis
Tropical cyclones can cause severe damage, in particular through flooding of coastal areas. Here, the authors show that in addition to known impacts, tropical cyclone rainbands can cause meteotsunami waves that can contribute significantly to the total water levels and hence flooding risks.
- Luming Shi
- , Maitane Olabarrieta
- & John C. Warner
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Article
| Open AccessLearning algorithms allow for improved reliability and accuracy of global mean surface temperature projections
The ensemble spread of climate models is often interpreted as the uncertainty of the projection, but this is not always justified. Applying learning algorithms to an ensemble of climate predictions allows for a significant uncertainty reduction of projected global mean surface temperatures compared to the ensemble spread.
- Ehud Strobach
- & Golan Bel
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Article
| Open AccessIncrease in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions
International agreements have been implemented to reduce emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) to reduce their radiative forcing. Even though reported HFC-23 emissions are at a historical low, observations indicate that emissions have actually increased over recent years to higher levels than previously.
- K. M. Stanley
- , D. Say
- & M. Rigby
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| Open AccessReconciling the disagreement between observed and simulated temperature responses to deforestation
Models show a cooler surface temperature response to deforestation than observations which has been attributed to uncertainties in the models. A comparison of satellite observations and model experiments shows that the disagreement is due to the role of atmospheric feedbacks, which are not well captured in the observational space-for-time approach.
- Liang Chen
- & Paul A. Dirmeyer
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Article
| Open AccessMidwinter Arctic leads form and dissipate low clouds
Cracks in Arctic sea ice (leads) are becoming more prevalent and widespread, yet studies regarding their impacts on clouds are limited. Here, contrary to the present understanding, diverse observations and modelling simulations show that higher leads concentrations do not necessarily result in more low clouds.
- Xia Li
- , Steven K. Krueger
- & Sally Benson
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed
How the translation speed of tropical cyclones has changed in recent decades and will change in the future has been the subject of debate. Model results show that on average, they have not slowed down in the past, but despite a slowing of tropical cyclones at higher latitudes, a poleward shift in their mean track location causes a general speed up under high greenhouse gas emissions.
- Munehiko Yamaguchi
- , Johnny C. L. Chan
- & Ryo Mizuta
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| Open AccessA wind-albedo-wind feedback driven by landscape evolution
Wind changes the surface of the Earth, but the surface characteristics of the planet also impact the winds above it. Here, the authors propose a feedback process in which wind erosion in the western Gobi Desert alters the thermal properties of the surface, which in turn increases near-surface winds.
- Jordan T. Abell
- , Alex Pullen
- & Gisela Winckler
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| Open AccessAbsence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations
The existence of regular decadal or longer climate oscillations has been the subject of intensive discussion. Here, statistical analysis of observational data and a large ensemble of model simulations show no evidence for longer-term internal oscillations that are distinguishable from climatic noise.
- Michael E. Mann
- , Byron A. Steinman
- & Sonya K. Miller
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| Open AccessModulation of Indian monsoon by water vapor and cloud feedback over the past 22,000 years
Past Indian summer monsoon (ISM) changes are not well understood. The application of an energetic framework to a transient model simulation shows that ISM influences have changed in the past, with rising water vapor more important during deglaciation, whereas cloud feedbacks dominated during the Holocene.
- Chetankumar Jalihal
- , Jayaraman Srinivasan
- & Arindam Chakraborty
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Article
| Open AccessContribution of oxic methane production to surface methane emission in lakes and its global importance
Anoxic lake sediments are thought to be the major source of the high amount of methane emitted from freshwaters. Here Günthel and colleagues find unexpected quantities of this greenhouse gas are produced in lake surfaces, indicating an overlooked global importance from oxygenated sources.
- Marco Günthel
- , Daphne Donis
- & Kam W. Tang
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Article
| Open AccessAnalysis of polarimetric satellite measurements suggests stronger cooling due to aerosol-cloud interactions
The radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions constitutes one of the largest uncertainties of anthropogenic radiative forcing. Direct satellite measurements of the relevant aerosol properties reveal that the resulting cooling from anthropogenic aerosols is much stronger than previously thought.
- Otto P. Hasekamp
- , Edward Gryspeerdt
- & Johannes Quaas
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| Open AccessKey drivers of cloud response to surface-active organics
Aerosol-cloud interactions are a large source of uncertainty in radiative forcing estimates. Here, the authors show that the radiative effects of clouds are influenced by a combination of aerosol particle distribution, environmental conditions and atmosphere dynamics.
- S. J. Lowe
- , D. G. Partridge
- & I. Riipinen
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Article
| Open AccessMemory effects of Eurasian land processes cause enhanced cooling in response to sea ice loss
The connection between Arctic sea ice loss and mid-latitude cooling in Eurasia has been widely debated. Here, model experiments reveal that the persistence of sea ice loss-related snow and soil temperature anomalies in Eurasia may lead to further cooling in the following winters.
- Tetsu Nakamura
- , Koji Yamazaki
- & Jinro Ukita
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Article
| Open AccessConstraining the rise of oxygen with oxygen isotopes
The loss of anomalous sulfur isotope compositions from sedimentary rocks has been considered a symptom of permanent atmospheric oxygenation. Here the authors show sulfur and oxygen isotope evidence from < 2.31 Ga sedimentary barium sulphates (barites) from the Turee Creek Basin, W. Australia, demonstrating the influence of local non-atmospheric processes on anomalous sulfur isotope signals.
- B. A. Killingsworth
- , P. Sansjofre
- & S. V. Lalonde
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Article
| Open AccessMolecular identification of organic vapors driving atmospheric nanoparticle growth
Condensation of organic vapors is a main factor controlling the growth of atmospheric particles. Here the authors identify a distribution of organic vapors in a forested environment able to explain nanoparticle growth at the same location, contributing to understanding aerosol climate effects.
- Claudia Mohr
- , Joel A. Thornton
- & Taina Yli-Juuti
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| Open AccessGigantic jet discharges evolve stepwise through the middle atmosphere
Gigantic jets, lightning discharges originating from tropical thunderstorms that can reach the base of the ionosphere at 90 km altitude, have not been captured using high-speed video cameras before. Here, the first such images are reported, showing a step-wise evolution of gigantic jets during their rising phase.
- Oscar A. van der Velde
- , Joan Montanyà
- & Steven A. Cummer
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| Open AccessThe role of highly oxygenated organic molecules in the Boreal aerosol-cloud-climate system
Forests emit compounds into the atmosphere that are oxidized into highly oxygenated molecules that serve as precursors for cloud condensation nuclei–a process that impacts the climate, but is poorly represented in models. Here the authors create a new model that accurately depicts highly oxygenated molecule and climate dynamics over Boreal forests.
- Pontus Roldin
- , Mikael Ehn
- & Michael Boy
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Article
| Open AccessDeciphering key processes controlling rainfall isotopic variability during extreme tropical cyclones
“Reconstruction of precipitation variability from oxygen isotopes in the Mesoamerican and Caribbean region is made difficult by the occurrence of tropical cyclones. Here, the isotopic evolution of a tropical cyclone is studied in detail which helps disentangle the key processes governing rainfall isotope variability in the region.”
- Ricardo Sánchez-Murillo
- , Ana M. Durán-Quesada
- & Kim M. Cobb
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| Open AccessStronger zonal convective clustering associated with a wider tropical rain belt
How the spatial patterns of deep convection affect the large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere remains an open question. Here, it is shown that if convection along the equator is clustered, the tropical rain belt widens and exhibits a double peak structure.
- Max Popp
- & Sandrine Bony
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Article
| Open AccessOn the warm bias in atmospheric reanalyses induced by the missing snow over Arctic sea-ice
Contemporary atmospheric reanalysis and forecast systems often neglect the snow layer on top of the sea ice. This can result in a 5 to 10 °C warm bias of the sea-ice surface temperature and thus, in a misrepresentation of the surface energy budget.
- Yurii Batrak
- & Malte Müller
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Article
| Open AccessDirect retrieval of isoprene from satellite-based infrared measurements
Isoprene is a key component of the atmosphere, with impacts on oxidation, ozone and organic aerosols, but in-situ measurements are limited. Here, the authors present a full-physics measurement framework based on satellite data that enables the direct observation of atmospheric isoprene from space.
- Dejian Fu
- , Dylan B. Millet
- & Annmarie Eldering
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Article
| Open AccessClimate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns
Tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding will increase under climate change. Here the authors estimate the effects of sea level rise and tropical cyclone climatology change on late–21st–century flood hazards along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and find that the effect of tropical cyclone change could surpass the effect of sea level rise at some areas in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Reza Marsooli
- , Ning Lin
- & Kairui Feng
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Article
| Open AccessTropical cyclones act to intensify El Niño
While it is known that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences tropical cyclones, but little is known about a reverse effect. Here, data and model output shows that tropical cyclones can affect ENSO with a lead of 3 months, especially contributing to a significantly more intense El Niño in the winter months.
- Qiuyun Wang
- , Jianping Li
- & Yidan Xu
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Article
| Open AccessNet carbon emissions from African biosphere dominate pan-tropical atmospheric CO2 signal
Tropical land ecosystems contain vast carbon reservoirs, but their influence on atmospheric CO2 is poorly understood. Here the authors use new carbon-observing satellites to reveal a large emission source over northern tropical Africa, where there are large soil carbon stores and substantial land use changes.
- Paul I. Palmer
- , Liang Feng
- & Peter Somkuti
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Article
| Open AccessResolving Sahelian thunderstorms improves mid-latitude weather forecasts
Thunderstorms are commonly represented through simplified parametrizations in weather and climate models. Here it is shown that an increase in model resolution over West Africa, enabling the explicit modeling of Sahelian convective systems, can improve 5–8 day tropical and mid-latitude weather forecasts.
- Gregor Pante
- & Peter Knippertz
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Article
| Open AccessArctic–Eurasian climate linkage induced by tropical ocean variability
El Niño warms the tropical Atlantic, which in turn induces an anomalous Rossby wave train, triggering Arctic sea-ice growth and Eurasian warming in the El Niño decay year. This teleconnection via the tropical Atlantic and the Arctic in La Niña decay year contributes to Eurasian cold winter extremes.
- Shinji Matsumura
- & Yu Kosaka
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Article
| Open AccessRevisiting enteric methane emissions from domestic ruminants and their δ13CCH4 source signature
Global average, geographical distribution and temporal variations of the 13C isotopic signature of enteric fermentation emissions are not well understood. Here the authors established a global dataset and show a larger emission increase between the two periods (2002–2006 and 2008–2012) than previous studies.
- Jinfeng Chang
- , Shushi Peng
- & Philippe Bousquet
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| Open AccessImpacts of air pollutants from rural Chinese households under the rapid residential energy transition
Residential solid fuel use constitutes a large amount of air pollution but has been gradually replaced by other cleaner energy during the past three decades. Here the authors investigated the contribution of rural residential sector to ambient PM2.5 pollution and the resulting climate forcing and health impacts, and find that the remaining large quantities of solid fuels used in rural households are still a major contributor to ambient air pollution despite of decrease in its pollutant emissions and relative contribution to PM2.5 due to the clean energy transition.
- Guofeng Shen
- , Muye Ru
- & Shu Tao