Research articles

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  • A systematic review shows that >58% of infectious diseases confronted by humanity, via 1,006 unique pathways, have at some point been affected by climatic hazards sensitive to GHGs. These results highlight the mounting challenge for adaption and the urgent need to reduce GHG emissions.

    • Camilo Mora
    • Tristan McKenzie
    • Erik C. Franklin
    Analysis
  • The author investigates reproductive tradeoffs and contemporary selection of ocean acidification for a common coastal fish. Larvae are highly sensitive to acidification, with lower mortality for larger larvae, but effects are partially offset by tradeoffs between offspring size and number.

    • Darren W. Johnson
    Article
  • Phytoplankton vertical migration has a role in nutrient pumping and primary productivity in the oceans. Here the authors quantify the total amount of oceanic net primary productivity facilitated by this bio-pumping, under present and future warming conditions.

    • Kai Wirtz
    • S. Lan Smith
    • Jan Taucher
    Article Open Access
  • Ocean changes could affect the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and its contribution to sea level rise. Oceanographic observations off East Antarctica show substantial warming of mid-depth Circumpolar Deep Water, linked to poleward wind shifts, with implications for glacial melt and ice sheet stability.

    • Laura Herraiz-Borreguero
    • Alberto C. Naveira Garabato
    Article
  • Residential sector decarbonization is an essential part of mitigation, especially in the United States where per capita energy use is high by global standards. This article shows the emission reduction potential from individual and combined strategies applied to existing and new homes and to electricity supply.

    • Peter Berrill
    • Eric J. H. Wilson
    • Edgar G. Hertwich
    Article
  • Peatlands have historically acted as a carbon sink, but it is unclear how climate warming will affect this. The response of peatland carbon uptake to warming depends on the timing of summer warming; early warming leads to increased CO2 uptake and later warming to decreased uptake.

    • M. Helbig
    • T. Živković
    • S. Zaehle
    Article
  • Non-CO2 effects must be addressed for climate-neutral aviation but are currently ignored in international climate policies. The authors provide a framework with different definitions of climate neutrality, then show how technological and demand-side mitigation efforts can help to achieve these targets.

    • Nicoletta Brazzola
    • Anthony Patt
    • Jan Wohland
    Analysis
  • Changes in the spatial pattern of aerosol could influence climate through effects on radiative forcing. Model experiments show that while aerosol absorption in the midlatitudes and regions of tropical descent can warm the planet, aerosol absorption in regions of tropical ascent can cool the planet.

    • Andrew I. L. Williams
    • Philip Stier
    • Duncan Watson-Parris
    Article Open Access
  • Joint initiatives by state and non-state actors launched at climate summits are expected to enhance climate governance. However, those launched at earlier summits often perform better, as do initiatives in areas such as transport, energy and industry and ones with robust institutional arrangements.

    • Sander Chan
    • Thomas Hale
    • Joanes Atela
    Article Open Access
  • Climate change may increase or decrease human migration. Applying an integrated assessment model with migration dynamics to income data, the authors show that the lowest-income groups have mobility reduced by 10–35%.

    • Hélène Benveniste
    • Michael Oppenheimer
    • Marc Fleurbaey
    Article
  • Falling raindrops play an essential but as-yet unquantified role in planetary climate change. Here the authors use the concept of precipitation efficiency to establish that raindrops play a critical role in predicting future tropical atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation.

    • Ryan L. Li
    • Joshua H. P. Studholme
    • Trude Storelvmo
    Article
  • Climate change is expected to impact moisture supply, which is critical for production of food and carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. A shift from ecosystem energy to water limitation is predicted between 1980 and 2100, with implications for ecosystem function under climate change.

    • Jasper M. C. Denissen
    • Adriaan J. Teuling
    • Rene Orth
    Article Open Access
  • The authors project the impacts of future changes in sea surface temperature, salinity and therefore density on the dispersal of buoyant mangrove propagules. They show that warmer and fresher oceans may increase propagule sinking rates, potentially reducing future mangrove resilience.

    • Tom Van der Stocken
    • Bram Vanschoenwinkel
    • Nico Koedam
    Article Open Access
  • Detecting change in tropical cyclones is difficult from observational records. Here a reconstruction using reanalysis data of annual cyclone numbers shows they have declined globally and regionally over the twentieth century.

    • Savin S. Chand
    • Kevin J. E. Walsh
    • Hiroyuki Murakami
    Article Open Access
  • The ocean absorbs atmospheric heat; understanding this process is needed to predict climate change impacts. Model analysis shows the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Southern Ocean heat uptake—projections with larger (smaller) ENSO amplitude show less (more) ocean warming.

    • Guojian Wang
    • Wenju Cai
    • Michael J. McPhaden
    Article Open Access
  • Ice that melts at high elevation often refreezes and, therefore, does not contribute to the shrinking of ice sheets. Here, the authors show that the elevation at which melting ice starts to contribute to runoff has increased over recent years in Greenland, expanding the runoff area by 29%.

    • Andrew J. Tedstone
    • Horst Machguth
    Article
  • Food demand is increasing, while climate change is impacting the magnitude and stability of crop yields. High-quality soils are able to buffer the negative impacts of climate change and lead to smaller yield reduction and higher yield stability, indicating a potential adaptation strategy.

    • Lei Qiao
    • Xuhui Wang
    • Mingsheng Fan
    Article
  • Companies commonly use renewable energy certificates to report progress towards emission reduction targets. However, this use of certificates is unlikely to result in actual emission reductions, which undermines the credibility of corporate emission reduction claims and their alignment with the Paris Agreement goal.

    • Anders Bjørn
    • Shannon M. Lloyd
    • H. Damon Matthews
    Article