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Decreasing resilience of China’s coupled nitrogen–phosphorus cycling network requires urgent action

Nature Food volume 5, pages 48–58 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

The coupled nature of the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling networks is of critical importance for sustainable food systems. Here we use material flow and ecological network analysis methods to map the N–P-coupled cycling network in China and evaluate its resilience. Results show a drop in resilience between 1980 and 2020, with further decreases expected by 2060 across different socio-economic pathways. Under a clean energy scenario with additional N and P demand, the resilience of the N–P-coupled cycling network would suffer considerably, especially in the N layer. China’s socio-economic system may also see greater N emissions to the environment, thus disturbing the N cycle and amplifying the conflict between energy and food systems given the scarcity of P. Our findings on scenario-specific synergies and trade-offs can aid the management of N- and P-cycling networks in China by reducing chemical fertilizer use and food waste, for example.

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Fig. 1: The structure of the N–P-coupled cycling network of China in 2020.
Fig. 2: Schematic model of N–P-coupled cycling network in China during 1980–2020.
Fig. 3: Historical trends and future evolution of resilience of N- and P-cycling networks in China during 1980–2060.
Fig. 4: Nodes influencing the resilience of the N–P-coupled cycling network in China during 1980–2020 and specific time periods.
Fig. 5: Structural indicators of the N–P-coupled cycling network in 2060 under the SSP scenarios and changes in the network resilience compared with that in 2020.
Fig. 6: Changes in the resilience of the N–P-coupled cycling network under different measures in comparison with the baseline year of 2020.

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Data availability

Data are mainly collected from (1) statistical yearbooks including China Statistical Yearbook, China Agricultural Yearbook, China Industrial Economic Statistical Yearbook and National Agricultural Product Cost Benefit Compilation; (2) international statistical databases including IIASA’s SSP database (https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/), FAOSTAT (https://www.fao.org/faostat/zh/#home), and UN Comtrade (https://comtradeplus.un.org/). All the data sources are publicly available. All data generated from this study are available on figshare via https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24467494. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The computer codes generated from this study are available on figshare via https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24467494.

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Acknowledgements

S.H. acknowledges funding from the National Key R and D Program of China (2018YFC1903801), Y.Y. acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72074077 and 72140006), B.Z. acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41661144023) and S.L. acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72293602 and 72293600).

Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Zimeng Luo, Yadong Yu.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, P. R. China

    Zimeng Luo, Dingjiang Chen, Bing Zhu & Shanying Hu

  2. School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, P. R. China

    Yadong Yu & Tieju Ma

  3. International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Yadong Yu, Ali Kharrazi, Brian D. Fath, Bing Zhu & Tieju Ma

  4. Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan

    Ali Kharrazi

  5. Biology Department, Towson University, Towson, MD, USA

    Brian D. Fath

  6. Department of Environmental Studies, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic

    Brian D. Fath

  7. Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan

    Kazuyo Matsubae

  8. Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan

    Kazuyo Matsubae

  9. Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, P. R. China

    Sai Liang

  10. Institute for Circular Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, P. R. China

    Dingjiang Chen, Bing Zhu & Shanying Hu

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Contributions

Y.Y. and S.H. designed the study. Z.L. and Y.Y. collected data and conducted calculations. Y.Y., Z.L., S.H. and A.K. led the analysis. Z.L., Y.Y., S.H., A.K., B.D.F., K.M., S.L., D.C., B.Z. and T.M. contributed to the writing.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Yadong Yu or Shanying Hu.

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Nature Food thanks Vilma Sandström and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Methods, Figs. 1–11, Tables 2–21, Notes and References.

Reporting Summary

Supplementary Table 1

The list of nodes in the China’ s N- and P-coupled cycling network.

Source data

Source Data Fig. 3

Historical trends and future evolution of resilience of N- and P-cycling networks in China during 1980–2060.

Source Data Fig. 4

Nodes influencing the resilience of the N–P-coupled cycling network in China during 1980–2020 and specific time periods.

Source Data Fig. 5

Structural indicators of the N–P-coupled cycling network in 2060 under the SSP scenarios and changes in the network resilience compared with that in 2020.

Source Data Fig. 6

Changes in the resilience of the N–P-coupled cycling network under different measures in comparison with the baseline year of 2020.

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Luo, Z., Yu, Y., Kharrazi, A. et al. Decreasing resilience of China’s coupled nitrogen–phosphorus cycling network requires urgent action. Nat Food 5, 48–58 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00889-5

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