Introduction

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a condition that develops when there is a retrograde flow of stomach contents back into the esophagus1,2,3. Long-term exposure to gastric contents may irritate the esophageal epithelium, leading to a spectrum of disease in three different phenotypes—non-erosive reflux disease (NERD), erosive esophagitis (EE), and Barrett’s esophagus (BE)—when inspected through endoscopy and/or histopathology4,5,6. Typical clinical presentations of GERD are heartburns and regurgitation, with atypical clinical presentations, such as epigastric pain, odynophagia, dysphagia, nausea, chronic cough, dental erosion, laryngitis, and asthma7,8.

Approximately 30% of GERD cases may progress to EE, and 1–13% of EE cases may also continue to develop BE6. However, reports of EE cases around the globe remain unclear, yet experts estimate the number hits approximately 1% of the population7. Aside from the burden on quality of life9, prolonged esophagitis may further induce esophageal epithelium metaplasia and progression of adenocarcinoma10. Due to its long-term morbidity, it is crucial to identify clear-cut risk factors that contribute to the development of EE to decide the need for endoscopy and/or histopathology analysis, to detect an early mucosal erosion, and to prevent its progression to BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Given the burden on health-related quality of life, it is important for physicians to provide proper management and care from well-established knowledge of EE risk factors. Therefore, this meta-analysis aims to outline the detailed risk factors contributing to the development of EE as the primary outcome from the perspective of demography, comorbidities, and medication history. Furthermore, a secondary outcome of the global, regional, and local prevalence will also be depicted in this study since the exact number of cases reported is still unclear.

Results

Overview of literature search and included studies

The initial search yields a total of 3145 studies, out of which, 1636 studies are removed due to duplication of studies. We obtain 306 studies with eligible titles and abstracts and review 253 studies, as the full-texts of 53 studies are irretrievable. Finally, only 114 eligible studies with a total of 759,100 participants are included in this study. The overall process is illustrated in Fig. 1. The summary of qualitative synthesis of the included studies is provided in Table 1.

Figure 1
figure 1

PRISMA flow diagram of the study selection process.

Table 1 Basic characteristic of the included studies.

Approximately 25.53% of participants are diagnosed as EE through upper gastrointestinal (UGI) endoscopy. The mean age is 47.56 years; two studies did not report the mean age of their study population11,12. To avoid proportional bias, we cannot report the gender proportion because 28 studies are missing this information. Among the 114 included studies, 36 are case–control, 11 are prospective cohort, 6 are retrospective cohort, and 61 are cross-sectional studies. In terms of regions, 84 studies are in Asia, 15 studies in America, 11 studies in Europe, and 4 studies in Africa.

Demographical factors

The demographical factors chosen for this analysis are as follows: sex, age, race, employment status, marital status, educational status, educational duration, and disease duration (Table 2). The forest and funnel plots are provided in Supplementary Fig. S1S8 online. Evidence of high heterogeneity is detected in sex (I2 = 77%), age (I2 = 96%), race (I2 = 71%), employment status (I2 = 91%), and educational status (I2 = 85%). All heterogeneity tests are performed using REM. Four factors are found as risk factors: (1) Age ≥ 60 y.o. with OR 2.03 (95% CI = 1.81–2.28, n = 92 studies); (2) White/Caucasian race with OR 1.67 (95% CI = 1.40–1.99, n = 10 studies); (3) Being single with OR 1.08 (95% CI = 1.03–1.14, n = 7 studies); and (4) Having GERD ≥ 5 years with OR 1.27 (95% CI = 1.14–1.42, n = 2 studies). We define ‘having GERD ≥ 5 years’ as having symptomatic GERD that is not diagnosed by endoscopy for 5 years or more. The rest – being male, employed workers, being students of college or higher educational degree, and study duration ≥ 12 years—are not risk nor protective factors.

Table 2 Forest plot results of the demographical factors, comorbidities, and medication history.

The sensitivity analysis on employment status shows that the pooled effect of EE in employed patients is changed from nonsignificant to significant after removing one study by Kulig et al.13. However, the pooled effects of two other factors in the leave-one-out sensitivity analyses are changed from significant to nonsignificant after removing one study, either Chung et al.14, Kulig et al.13, Mun et al.15, or Sadiku et al.16, for marital status, and Kulig et al.13 for disease duration. The sensitivity analyses of the remaining demographical factors suggest that the pooled effects are not influenced by any single study.

Comorbidities

Fifteen comorbidities are included in this analysis consisting general obesity, central obesity, diabetes mellitus (DM) or hyperglycemia, hypertension or elevated blood pressure (BP), dyslipidemia, hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), low high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), hiatal hernia (HH), H. pylori infection, gastric ulcer, duodenal ulcer, atrophic gastritis, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (Table 2). The forest and funnel plots are provided in Supplementary Fig. S9S23 online. We detect moderate to high heterogeneity in 11 out of 15 comorbidities, including general obesity (I2 = 85%), central obesity (I2 = 69%), hypertriglyceridemia (I2 = 70%), hypercholesterolemia (I2 = 67%), high LDL-C (I2 = 69%), low HDL-C (I2 = 56%), HH (I2 = 95%), H. pylori infection (I2 = 91%), gastric ulcer (I2 = 77%), duodenal ulcer (I2 = 61%), and atrophic gastritis (I2 = 84%). All heterogeneity tests are performed using REM. Based on the ORs, eight comorbidities that can be considered risk factors are as follows: (1) general obesity with OR 1.78 (95% CI = 1.61–1.98, n = 50 studies); (2) central obesity with OR 1.29 (95% CI = 1.18–1.42, n = 25 studies); (3) DM or hyperglycemia with OR 1.24 (95% CI = 1.17–1.32, n = 38 studies); (4) hypertension or elevated BP with OR 1.16 (95% CI = 1.09–1.23, n = 36 studies); (5) dyslipidemia with OR 1.15 (95% CI = 1.06–1.24, n = 10 studies); (6) hypertriglyceridemia with OR 1.42 (95% CI = 1.29–1.57, n = 22 studies); (7) HH with OR 4.07 (95% CI = 3.21–5.17, n = 57 studies); and (8) NAFLD with OR 1.26 (95% CI = 1.18–1.34, n = 8 studies). On the contrary, H. pylori infection (OR 0.56 [0.48–0.66]; n = 39 studies) and atrophic gastritis (OR 0.51 [0.31–0.86]; n = 8 studies) act as protective factors. Other factors – hypercholesterolemia, high LDL-C, low HDL-C, gastric ulcer, and duodenal ulcer – are not risk nor protective factors.

After removing a study by Cho et al.17 in the sensitivity analysis of duodenal ulcer, the pooled effect is shifted from nonsignificant to significant. On the contrary, the pooled OR of atrophic gastritis is shifted from significant to nonsignificant following the removal of a study by Ko et al.18. The leave-one-out sensitivity analyses of the remaining comorbidities suggest that the provided overall effects are robust and not affected by any single study.

Medication history

We include five pharmacological medications: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) only, aspirin only, NSAID and/or aspirin, proton pump inhibitor (PPI), H2 receptor antagonist (H2RA), and antacids (Table 2). The forest and funnel plots are provided in Supplementary Fig. S24S29 online. NSAID and/or aspirin (I2 = 58%) and H2RA (I2 = 53%) have moderate heterogeneity, while PPI (I2 = 93%) and antacids (I2 = 84%) have high heterogeneity. All heterogeneity tests are performed using REM. There is no medication history considered as risk nor protective factors in the current analysis: NSAID only (OR 1.02 [0.94–1.10]), aspirin only (OR 1.09 [0.96–1.24]), NSAID and/or aspirin (OR 1.21 [0.79–1.86]), PPI (OR 0.65 [0.30–1.39]), H2RA (OR 1.23 [0.63–2.39]), and antacids (OR 1.97 [0.98–3.93]).

The sensitivity analysis of the antacids use reveals that the overall effect is changed from nonsignificant to significant following the removal of one study by Kang et al.19. On the other hand, no study has a notable influence in the leave-one-out sensitivity analyses of the remaining medication histories, proving the robustness of the pooled results.

EE prevalence

We perform meta-analysis of EE prevalence based on the geographic regions (Table 3) along with the substantial variations of the EE worldwide prevalence (Fig. 2 and Supplementary Fig. S30 online). There are 193,819 participants who are diagnosed with EE giving an overall pooled prevalence of 28% (95% CI = 24%–31%). The two highest pooled prevalence of EE are Africa (47% [95% CI = 27%–68%]) and the Middle East (43% [95% CI = 28%–60%]), while the lowest is Asia (24% [95% CI = 22%–27%]). Interestingly, the prevalence of EE in America (36% [95% CI = 30%–42%]) and Europe (34% [95% CI = 25%–44%]) are both higher than that in Asia. The top five countries in terms of prevalence are as follows: Indonesia (55% [95% CI = 42%–68%]), India (52% [95% CI = 44%–59%]), Nigeria (50% [95% CI = 42%–58%]), Peru (50% [95% CI = 44%–56%]), and Albania (48% [95% CI = 43%–52%]). The country with lowest pooled prevalence is Sweden (17% [95% CI = 15%–19%]).

Table 3 Worldwide pooled prevalence of EE based on geographical regions and countries.
Figure 2
figure 2

The distribution map of worldwide erosive esophagitis (EE) prevalence (created with https://www.mapchart.net/).

Publication bias and quality assessment

The funnel plots of central obesity (Supplementary Fig. S10B online), high LDL-C (Supplementary Fig. S16B online), and low HDL-C (Supplementary Fig. S17B online) show an asymmetrical distribution of studies, revealing the potential of publication bias. These findings are further confirmed by significant Egger’s test result in each factor (Z = 2.03 and p = 0.04 for central obesity, Z = 2.16 and p = 0.03 for high LDL-C, Z = -2.23 and p = 0.03 for low HDL-C). On the contrary, no potential of publication bias is found in the rest of the factors since their funnel plots show a rather symmetrical distribution of studies, further supported by their insignificant Egger’s test results (Table 2).

The quality of each study is shown in Table S1–S3. The overall quality of the included case–control studies (Supplementary Table S1 online) is good in 27 studies, while the rest (n = 9) is moderate. Of the 17 cohort studies, thirteen and four studies have good- and moderate-quality, respectively (Supplementary Table S2 online). The qualities of 61 cross-sectional studies (Supplementary Table S3 online) are as follows: (1) very good for 37 studies; (2) good for 19 studies; and (3) satisfactory for 5 studies. There are no poor-quality and unsatisfactory studies in the current meta-analysis.

Discussion

To the best of our understanding, this meta-analysis is the first to thoroughly analyze the risk factors and prevalence of EE across the world from 1997 to 2021. Our results indicate that several demographical factors—age ≥ 60 y.o., White/Caucasian, single or unmarried, and having GERD ≥ 5 years—increase the risk of having EE. Interestingly, we find both risk and protective factors towards EE in the comorbidities. Obesity, DM, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hypertriglyceridemia, HH, and NAFLD are found to increase the risk of EE, while H. pylori infection and atrophic gastritis are found to be protective towards EE. Our results also indicate that medication history is not significantly increasing the risk nor protective of EE. The prevalence of EE in each of America, Africa, and Europe is higher than that in Asia and the highest prevalence is found to be in Africa and the Middle East.

Our study indicates that the risk of EE in males is twice than that in females. Previous studies have suggested that the combination of behavioral, immunologic, and metabolic aspects, especially in men, can increase the risk of EE and affect its prevalence. For example, Erol and Karpyak20 and Matsuzaki et al.21 suggest that cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption are more common in men and may increase the risk of having EE in men, approximately two to three times more than women. A longitudinal study by Adachi et al.22 also indicates that the prevalence of EE in men during 10-year period is increasing mainly due to aging, high BMI, and large diaphragmatic hiatus. This change, however, is not found in women. Furthermore, previous studies by Yoon Kim et al.23 and Sun Kim et al.24 suggest the protective effects of estrogen, although the studies use animal models.

Our study shows that the risk of EE in the Western (White/Caucasian) population is approximately two-fold higher than that in the non-White/Caucasian population. Previous studies have suggested that lifestyle factors, anatomical, and genetic variance can also explain the high risk of EE in the Western population. In terms of lifestyle factors, Wirth et al.25, Abraham et al.26, and Ko et al.18 indicate the differences in the risk can be attributed to the differences in eating habits or cultures (e.g. high fat diet and alcohol drinking in the Western population), distribution of visceral fat tissues, and body composition between the Western and Eastern populations25,26. In terms of anatomical differences, previous studies also suggest that the mass of gastric parietal cells of Western population is greater than that in the Asian population, which explains the higher gastric acid production in the Western population18,25. Moreover, in terms of genetic variance, some previous studies indicate that the difference in the ABH-secretor and Lewis histo-blood group may explain the difference of risk in the Western population. In particular, Wirth et al.25 and Suzuki et al.27 indicate that individuals with group A and non-secretors (common in the Western population) are prone to have EE.

This study finds that HH increases the risk of EE and this may be explained by anatomical and physiological factors. HH may diminish the augmenting effect of diaphragmatic crus to prevent gastric reflux28. Previous study mentions that the size of the HH is the most important risk factor of EE in individuals with GERD29. Some etiologies, such as pregnancies, surgical history, being elderly, and overweight, may increase the probability of HH30,31.

Obese individuals tend to experience more frequent and intense reflux symptoms compared to non-obese individuals32. Anatomically, obesity may promote esophagitis by increasing intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) and inducing lower esophageal sphincter (LES) relaxation33. Another evidence also reveals that obesity increases the transvesically-measured IAP34. Another mechanism thought to be involved in EE is related to adipose tissue. It may act as an endocrine tissue releasing inflammatory cytokines and leptin, which may further exacerbate the esophageal inflammatory process35.

In terms of metabolic diseases other than obesity, DM may cause esophageal dysfunction, which results in the amplitude reduction of esophageal contractions, less peristaltic waves, decreased LESP (lower esophageal sphincter pressure), and abnormal gastroesophageal reflux36,37. This is consistent with our finding that the risk of EE is increased in diabetic patients. Interestingly, the esophageal dysfunction in diabetic patients is also associated with autonomic neuropathy involving the vagal nerve, especially when the patient is in hyperglycemic state or has diabetes for 5–10 years after onset38,39. Gastric emptying can be disrupted due to this process, which triggers EE39. This process is further worsened by the fact that reflux symptoms may be more frequent in diabetic patients with three major complications (retinopathy, neuropathy, nephropathy) and longer duration of DM40,41.

In this study, we find that hypertension increases the risk of EE. This finding is first confirmed by Gudlaugsdottir et al.42, which finds a significantly higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) in EE compared to the controls, although the underlying pathophysiology is still unclear. The relationship between hypertension and esophageal reflux is further confirmed by Hu et al.43, which observes a significant improvement in the hypertension control after laparoscopic fundoplication during a 3.5 year follow-up period.

Our overall analysis finds dyslipidemia to be a risk factor for EE. However, most studies included in the analysis do not find dyslipidemia to be a risk factor. To evaluate this finding, we also separately analyzed several components of dyslipidemia, such as hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, high LDL-C, and low HDL-C. Our results suggest that hypertriglyceridemia is a risk factor of EE, but not dyslipidemia and its other components. Several studies have suggested triglyceride (TG) as an independent risk factor for EE related to humoral components that altered LESP and the frequency of transient relaxation44,45. TG has also been correlated with high fat intake, causing delayed gastric emptying time46,47,48. Moreover, hypertriglyceridemia is a significant predictive factor of EE severity, possibly related to fatty liver and insulin resistance49. The chronic inflammation in EE due to gastric acid injury may cause abnormal lipid metabolism, increasing TG47. Yet, several studies do not find TG to be an independent risk factor of EE50,51.

NAFLD also reaches statistical significance as a risk factor for EE. A study reports that only NAFLD is associated with EE, but not obesity45. NAFLD also increases the systemic oxidative stress and decreases the antioxidant capacity, which disrupts the gastric mucus layer and further causing esophageal mucosal damage and increasing the risk of EE45.

Interestingly, both gastric atrophy and H. pylori infection show to be protective factors for EE. The gastric atrophy can be classified into closed-type (C-type) and open type (O-type) according to the endoscopic atrophic border. According to Kim et al.52, the ambulatory pH monitoring study indicates that the O-type is associated with a lesser number of reflux symptoms and EE than the C-type. The O-type is characterized by an increasing number of impaired acid secreting parietal gastric cells will hinder more the gastric acid production, which will lead to hypochlorhydria, lessen the esophageal acidity, and further contribute to the pathogenesis of EE52,53. In a similar manner, the H. pylori infection may present protective mechanism since H. pylori chronic inflammation can cause gastric atrophy and further decreases the acid secretory capacity of the gastric lining54,55. It is only observable in O-type cases, while missing in the C-type, which produces higher gastrin and acid secretion56. However, this finding should be interpreted carefully since uneradicated H. pylori still carries a high risk of gastric cancer through several complex mechanisms57. Therefore, even though H. pylori is protective towards EE in our study, its eradication should still be well-considered to prevent the incidence of gastric cancer in later life.

To the best of our understanding, there has been no study that focuses on the meta-analysis of EE prevalence. We find that the prevalence of EE in America and Europe is higher than that in Asia. Recent meta-analyses on the prevalence of GERD58 and BE59 show similar results. A study by Qumseya et al.60 also finds a higher pooled prevalence of BE in low-risk Western populations compared to non-Western populations. One explanation for this distribution may be the difference in lifestyles. The typical Western diet is known to be high in fat, sodium, calories, and sugar, while it is low in fiber, fruits and vegetables. Concurrently, we have identified that White/Caucasian and individuals with obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and associated disease, such as NAFLD, are more significantly at risk of suffering from EE. Additionally, our meta-analysis shows a higher pooled prevalence of EE in Africa and the Middle East compared to those in other regions. This finding is in contrast to a previous BE meta-analysis by Eusebi et al.59, which finds the prevalence of BE in African and Middle Eastern countries to be lower than that in American countries.

We acknowledge several limitations in our study. First, we find some considerable high heterogeneities in most of the analyzed factors, mainly between the studies, such as population characteristics, various EE diagnostic criteria, differences in UGI study indications, and comorbidities along with various diagnostic criteria and cut-off values for their diagnosis. Second, although the EE diagnosis in the included studies is based on endoscopic result and the associated diagnostic criteria, endoscopy is still relatively an operator dependent-investigation, which may affect the EE prevalence in each country. Third, the number of included studies in several factors is still less than 10 studies; hence, the results should be carefully interpreted. Fourth, the included studies are mostly conducted in Asia (84 studies) and America (15 studies). This may affect the prevalence and risk factors of EE, and their interpretations in our study. Accordingly, we encourage more researchers from regions other than Asia to conduct more studies regarding the prevalence and risk factors of EE. However, regardless of the limitations, our study carries some strengths. The numbers of our included studies and their participants are relatively sufficient to cover a wide range of geographical areas; therefore, we can analyze the worldwide EE prevalence.

As the conclusion, we find several risk and protective factors of EE classified in three groups of factors, including demographical factors, comorbidities, and medication history. In the demographical factors, the risk of EE is increased due to age ≥ 60 y.o., being White/Caucasian, being single or unmarried, and having GERD ≥ 5 years. Interestingly, both risk and protective factors of EE are found in the comorbidities. Obesity, DM, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hypertriglyceridemia, HH, and NAFLD act as risk factors, while H. pylori infection and atrophic gastritis act as protective factors. The EE prevalence in each of America, Africa, and Europe are higher than that in Asia. Given these findings, an integrated care pathways of EE—including the decision regarding the timing of endoscopy based on the risk factors—is expected to be constructed, which then may help medical professionals to give proper and comprehensive managements for patients who are at a high risk of EE.

Methods

This systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) latest statement61. The protocol of this study has been previously registered to the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) database (CRD42023418716).

Search strategy

A systematic computerized data searching of relevant studies was conducted in four electronic medical databases, including PubMed, Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) Plus database via EBSCOhost, and Web of Science, by two authors (A.P.W. and B.S.W.) from inception to June 2, 2022. The construction of keywords was performed based on Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms combined with their variance and other additional terms as following: “risk”, “predict”, “erosive esophagitis”, “gastroesophageal reflux disease”, and the variations of those terms. Boolean operators’ combinations were also applied in order to broaden and narrow the search results. The search was restricted to human participants only with no language and publication date restrictions.

Eligibility criteria

The relevant studies were included if they met several following inclusion criteria: (1) study design of observational study; (2) study participants consisted of adult patients aged 18 years or older who had undergone upper gastrointestinal (UGI) endoscopy, either to screen or to diagnose EE; and (3) the measured outcomes were odds ratios (ORs) of any possible risk factors related to EE and number of EE events. The exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) duplicate studies; (2) irrelevant titles and/or abstracts; (3) irretrievable full-texts; and (4) incorrect study design (review articles, clinical trials, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, case reports or series, letter to editors, conference abstracts).

Data extraction and quality assessment

All relevant studies were independently screened by seven of the co-authors. Any disagreements were resolved in a consensus involving all authors. The extracted data from the included studies were the author, year of publication, study location (country and region), study design, diagnostic guideline for EE, age, specific population characteristic, sample size, number of EE events, EE-related risk factors expressed in ORs, and the adjustment factors. We assessed the quality of the included studies using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) tool. For cohort and case–control studies, their quality was considered as good, moderate, or poor if their score was 7–9, 4–6, and 0–3, respectively. For cross-sectional studies, a score of 9–10 was considered as very good, 7–8 as good, 5–6 as satisfactory, and 0–4 as unsatisfactory. The quality assessment was conducted collaboratively through a group discussion by all authors, and the final decision was also taken based on the agreement of all authors.

Statistical analysis

Meta-analyses were performed for the outcome of pooled ORs in each EE-related risk factor using RevMan ver. 5.4 (The Cochrane Collaboration, The Nordic Cochrane Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark). We also performed meta-analysis of pooled EE prevalence in each study using STATA ver. 16.0 (Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA) as the secondary outcome. The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using chi-square test (Cochran’s Q statistic). Then, we quantified the level of heterogeneity with the Higgins’ I2 statistic as follows: 0% was considered negligible heterogeneity, < 25% as low heterogeneity, 25–75% as moderate heterogeneity, and > 75% as high heterogeneity62. Since there was a considerable variability and diversity among studies and the characteristics of the study participants, we primarily applied the random-effect model (REM) for risk factors and prevalence analyses. P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The publication bias was visually assessed using funnel plot and quantitatively assessed using Egger’s test. Sensitivity analysis was carried out using the leave-one-out method.