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Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat

Nature volume 620, pages 562–569 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Glacier shrinkage and the development of post-glacial ecosystems related to anthropogenic climate change are some of the fastest ongoing ecosystem shifts, with marked ecological and societal cascading consequences1,2,3,4,5,6. Yet, no complete spatial analysis exists, to our knowledge, to quantify or anticipate this important changeover7,8. Here we show that by 2100, the decline of all glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may produce new terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems over an area ranging from the size of Nepal (149,000 ± 55,000 km2) to that of Finland (339,000  ±  99,000  km2). Our analysis shows that the loss of glacier area will range from 22 ± 8% to 51 ± 15%, depending on the climate scenario. In deglaciated areas, the emerging ecosystems will be characterized by extreme to mild ecological conditions, offering refuge for cold-adapted species or favouring primary productivity and generalist species. Exploring the future of glacierized areas highlights the importance of glaciers and emerging post-glacial ecosystems in the face of climate change, biodiversity loss and freshwater scarcity. We find that less than half of glacial areas are located in protected areas. Echoing the recent United Nations resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation9 and the Global Biodiversity Framework10, we emphasize the need to urgently and simultaneously enhance climate-change mitigation and the in situ protection of these ecosystems to secure their existence, functioning and values.

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Fig. 1: Schematic of glacier retreat and the emergence of post-glacial ecosystems.
Fig. 2: Future evolution of glacial and deglaciated areas worldwide.
Fig. 3: Evolution of glacial surface area and composition of emerging deglaciated areas from 2020 to 2100.
Fig. 4: Glaciers and protected areas.

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Data availability

All the modelled data produced in this study are available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8070887).

Code availability

The code developed to process and analyse the data produced, and to generate the figures and tables in this Article, are available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8070887).

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Acknowledgements

We thank all the people in science and nature conservation, especially M. Salerno, C. Charbert, K. Héas, M. Heuret, S. Lana, J. R. Lee, C. Poirier and P. Billet, who made this paper possible through the Ice&Life project (www.iceandlife.com) and helped us to noticeably improve its content and the reviewers N. Gomez, W. Immerzeel, N. Lecomte and L. Vargo for their constructive comments. Ice&Life received financial support from WWF France and Mirova Foundation, the Fondation Université Savoie Mont Blanc, the DIPEE Grenoble-Chambery and the FREE-Alpes Federation (FR no. 2001-CNRS), la Banque des Territoires, the Fondation Eau Neige et Glace, Millet Mountain Group, Quechua, Patagonia, Picture, Crédit Agricole des Savoie, Swen Capital Partners, Imepsa and the Kilian Jornet Foundation.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Asters, Conservatory of Natural Areas of Haute-Savoie, Annecy, France

    J. B. Bosson & G. Costes

  2. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    M. Huss

  3. Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland

    M. Huss

  4. Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland

    M. Huss

  5. INRAE, UR RIVERLY, Centre de Lyon-Villeurbanne, Villeurbanne, France

    S. Cauvy-Fraunié

  6. Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, Thonon-les-Bains, France

    J. C. Clément & F. Arthaud

  7. Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    M. Fischer

  8. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    M. Fischer

  9. Laboratory Environnement Dynamique et Territoire de la Montagne (EDYTEM), Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le Bourget-du-Lac, France

    J. Poulenard

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  1. J. B. Bosson
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Contributions

J.B.B., M.H., F.A., S.C.-F., J.C.C., M.F. and J.P. designed the study that was coordinated by J.B.B. M.H. developed the model and provided data on glacier evolution and subglacial terrain characteristics and J.B.B., F.A. and S.C.-F. analysed them. J.P. analysed the carbon-sequestration potential in emerging terrestrial areas and G.C. analysed the distribution of glaciers in protected areas. J.B.B., with support from M.H., wrote the first draft of the paper and prepared the figures. All authors made substantial contributions to the final version of the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. B. Bosson.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Nature thanks Natalya Gomez, Walter Immerzeel, Nicolas Lecomte, Lauren Vargo and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Peer reviewer reports are available.

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Validation of glacier model results against independent observations of in-situ mass balance measurements36.

Distribution of misfits (in m water equivalent) between modelled and observed glacier-wide (a) annual and (b) winter mass balance from glaciers worldwide 1980–2020, as well as (c/d) mass balance specified per elevation bands. The root-mean-square-error (RMSE), the number of data points (n) and the correlation (r2) is stated.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Evolution of glaciers surfaces and composition of emerging deglaciated areas from 2020 to 2100.

Glacier location30 and individual regions41 are shown on the basemap. For each region and globally, central circles refer to the modelled 2020 glacier area. On their left and right, the relative evolution of glacier surface and newly emerging habitats are shown in 2100 for the SSP-1-1.9 (low-emission scenario) and 5-8.5 (high-emission scenario) respectively. For clarity, associated uncertainties are not displayed but available in the Supplementary Table sheet 2. Basemap originates from www.naturalearthdata.com.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Assessment of overall uncertainties in modelled glacier ice volume for two selected regions with different glacier characteristics (Iceland, Central Europe).

(A, B) Relative uncertainty in modelled glacier volume by the year 2100 for all individual uncertainty components. (C, D) Time series of individual uncertainties, as well as a combination of the three principal components – glacier model (MOD), Global Circulation Models (GCM), greenhouse-gas emission scenario (SSP) – using the root-sum-of squares.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Evolution of the number of glaciers and emerging overdeepenings between 2020 and 2100.

Glacier location30 and individual regions41 are shown on the basemap. For each region and globally, the circles in the centre refer to modelled glacier number in 2020. On their left and right, the relative changes in the number of glaciers, as well as the number of newly emerging overdeepenings are shown in 2100 for the SSP-1-1.9 (low-emission scenario) and 5-8.5 (high-emission scenario). For clarity, associated uncertainties are not displayed but available in the Supplementary Table sheet 3. Basemap originates from www.naturalearthdata.com.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Evolution of the volume of glaciers and emerging overdeepenings between 2020 and 2100.

Glacier location30 and individual regions41 are shown on the basemap. For each region and globally, the circles in the centre refer to the modelled glacier volume in 2020. On their left and right, the relative evolution of this volume and of the one of newly emerging overdeepenings are shown in 2100 for the SSP-1-1.9 (low-emission scenario) and 5-8.5 (high-emission scenario) respectively. For clarity, associated uncertainties are not displayed but available in the Supplementary Table, sheet 4. Basemap originates from www.naturalearthdata.com.

Extended Data Fig. 6 Characteristics of emerging land in deglaciated areas in 2100.

Glacier location30 and individual regions41 are shown on the basemap. For each region and globally, half circles in the centre refer to the modelled emerging land area in 2100 for the SSP-1-1.9 (low-emission scenario) on the left and 5-8.5 (high-emission scenario) on the right. On their left and right, the relative distribution of habitats and carbon storage potential in emerging soils are shown in 2100 for the SSP-1-1.9 and 5-8.5, respectively. For clarity, associated uncertainties are not displayed but available in the Supplementary Table, sheets 6,7. Basemap originates from www.naturalearthdata.com.

Extended Data Fig. 7 Glaciers, deglaciated areas and topographic and thermal characteristics of deglaciated areas over the 21st century.

Glacier location30 and individual regions41 are shown on the basemap. For each region (geographically grouped for clarity) and globally, the central black circle refers to the modelled glacier area in 2000 and the grey half circles correspond to deglaciated areas in 2100 for the SSP-1-1.9 (low-emission scenario) and 5-8.5 (high–emission scenario). On the left and right, the relative composition of the three types of ecosystems (marine, freshwater, and terrestrial) and their topographic and thermal characteristics modelled for 2100 are shown for both SSPs. For clarity, associated uncertainties are not displayed but available in the Supplementary Table sheet 6. Basemap originates from www.naturalearthdata.com.

Extended Data Fig. 8 An integrative approach to consider and preserve glaciers and emerging postglacial ecosystems.

On the left side (A), we propose a systemic relation linking glaciers and postglacial ecosystems to nature and societies and describe their possible consideration through anthropocentric, bio-ecocentric or integrative views. On the right side (B), we propose a stewardship framework based on three levels of actions (A1-A3) to enhance glaciers and postglacial ecosystems protection.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Figs. 1–15

All figures were produced with the data and code available in the Zenodo repository (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8070887) .

Supplementary Tables sheets 1–8

The tables were produced with the data and code available in the Zenodo repository (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8070887).

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Bosson, J.B., Huss, M., Cauvy-Fraunié, S. et al. Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat. Nature 620, 562–569 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06302-2

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