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Mechanisms, detection and impacts of species redistributions under climate change

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

Shifts in species distributions are a common ecological response to climate change, and global temperature rise is often hypothesized as the primary driver. However, the directions and rates of distribution shifts are highly variable across species, systems, and studies, complicating efforts to manage and anticipate biodiversity responses to anthropogenic change. In this Review, we summarize approaches to documenting species range shifts, discuss why observed range shifts often do not match our expectations, and explore the impacts of species range shifts on nature and society. The majority (59%) of documented range shifts are directionally consistent with climate change, based on the BioShifts database of range shift observations. However, many observed species have not shifted or have shifted in directions opposite to temperature-based expectations. These lagging or expectation-contrary shifts might be explained by additional biotic or abiotic factors driving range shifts, including additional non-temperature climatic drivers, habitat characteristics, and species interactions, which are not normally considered in range shift documentations. Understanding and managing range shifts will require increasing and connecting observational biological data, generalizing range shift patterns across systems, and predicting shifts at management-relevant timescales.

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Fig. 1: Geographic and taxonomic biases in range shift detections.
Fig. 2: Proportion of elevational range shifts (a) and latitudinal range shifts (terrestrial and marine) (b) consistent with climate expectations (that is, direction of isotherm shifts) in the BioShifts database22.
Fig. 3: Factors driving range shifts.
Fig. 4: Mismatch between isotherm shifts and range edge shifts across study durations in the BioShifts database22 for elevational shifts (a) and latitudinal shifts (terrestrial and marine) (b).

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Acknowledgements

This research is a product of the BIOSHIFTS group funded by the Centre for the Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB), a key program of the French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB; www.fondationbiodiversite.fr). J.R. received funding from the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (CEBA: ANR-10-LABX-25– 01; TULIP: ANR-10-LABX-0041, JCJC: ANR-23-CE02-0005-01).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

    Jake A. Lawlor, Nikki Moore, Brit van Amerom & Jennifer Sunday

  2. School of Biological Sciences, Illinois State University, Normal, IL, USA

    Lise Comte

  3. Centre de Recherche sur la Biodiversité et l’Environnement (CRBE), UMR5300 Université Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse INP, Université Toulouse 3 – Paul Sabatier (UT3), Toulouse, France

    Gaël Grenouillet, Romain Bertrand, Jerome Murienne & Jonathan Rolland

  4. Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France

    Gaël Grenouillet

  5. UMR CNRS 7058, Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France

    Jonathan Lenoir

  6. School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    J. Alex Baecher

  7. Graduate Program in Ecology and Evolution, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA

    R.M.W.J. Bandara

  8. Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan

    I-Ching Chen

  9. Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA

    Sarah E. Diamond

  10. School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK

    Lesley T. Lancaster

  11. Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité (FRB), Centre de Synthèse et d’Analyse sur la Biodiversité (CESAB), Montpellier, France

    Brunno F. Oliveira

  12. Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Gretta T. Pecl

  13. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Gretta T. Pecl

  14. Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA

    Malin L. Pinsky

  15. Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA

    Malin L. Pinsky

  16. US Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, VA, USA

    Madeleine Rubenstein & Sarah R. Weiskopf

  17. Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    Brett R. Scheffers

  18. US Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Knoxville, TN, USA

    Laura M. Thompson

  19. Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología A.C., Xalapa, Mexico

    Fabricio Villalobos

Authors
  1. Jake A. Lawlor
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  2. Lise Comte
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  3. Gaël Grenouillet
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  4. Jonathan Lenoir
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  6. R.M.W.J. Bandara
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  8. I-Ching Chen
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  9. Sarah E. Diamond
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  10. Lesley T. Lancaster
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  11. Nikki Moore
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  12. Jerome Murienne
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  13. Brunno F. Oliveira
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  14. Gretta T. Pecl
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  15. Malin L. Pinsky
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  16. Jonathan Rolland
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  17. Madeleine Rubenstein
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  18. Brett R. Scheffers
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  19. Laura M. Thompson
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  20. Brit van Amerom
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  21. Fabricio Villalobos
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  22. Sarah R. Weiskopf
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  23. Jennifer Sunday
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Contributions

J.A.L., L.C., G.G., J.L., B.v.A. and J.S. researched data for the article. J.A.L. and J.S. reviewed the manuscript before submission, and all authors made a substantial contribution to the discussion of content and contributed to writing the article.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jake A. Lawlor.

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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment thanks Janet Franklin and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Lawlor, J.A., Comte, L., Grenouillet, G. et al. Mechanisms, detection and impacts of species redistributions under climate change. Nat Rev Earth Environ (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00527-z

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