Epidemiology articles within Nature Communications

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  • Comment
    | Open Access

    In this Comment, the authors describe recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in cat shelters in Seoul, South Korea. They discuss potential routes of transmission and describe implications for surveillance of spillover infections in animals in non-agricultural settings.

    • Younjung Kim
    • , Guillaume Fournié
    •  & Pierre Nouvellet

  • Article
    | Open Access

    SARS-CoV-2-associated mortality estimates for sub-Saharan Africa are uncertain due to lack of comprehensive surveillance systems. Here, the authors analyse data from a detailed surveillance system in Kilifi, Kenya and find that excess mortality rates were relatively low, except for older adults.

    • M. Otiende
    • , A. Nyaguara
    •  & J. A. G. Scott

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study assesses the effectiveness of a second COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccine against severe disease using data from Chile. The authors find that the effectiveness of the second mRNA booster was high with a range of different background vaccination schemes, but there was evidence of waning over time.

    • Alejandro Jara
    • , Cristobal Cuadrado
    •  & Rafael Araos

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Identification of areas with risk factors for spillover of viruses from animals to humans could assist with early detection of emerging infectious diseases. In this study, the authors characterise potential risks for spillover of SARS-like viruses from bats to humans and identify geographical regions in which multiple risk factors cluster together.

    • Renata L. Muylaert
    • , David A. Wilkinson
    •  & David T. S. Hayman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The duration of symptomatic COVID-19 and its impacts on health and quality of life are not well understood. In this study, the authors report results from a survey of ~275,000 adults in England and find that persistent COVID-19 is relatively rare but is associated with poorer mental health and health-related quality of life.

    • Christina J. Atchison
    • , Bethan Davies
    •  & Paul Elliott

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Digital proximity tracing apps were widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic but have not been thoroughly evaluated. Here, the authors use data from students in Leuven, Belgium and estimate that apps notified only ~4% exposed contacts, had a 1–2 day delay for notification, and identified fewer infected contacts than manual contact tracing.

    • Caspar Geenen
    • , Joren Raymenants
    •  & Emmanuel André

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Non-falciparum malaria may cause a significant disease burden in highly endemic regions, but epidemiological data is limited. In this study, the authors estimate the incidence and prevalence of P. malariae, P. ovale spp., in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and compare to P. falciparum, which known to be common in the region.

    • Rachel Sendor
    • , Kristin Banek
    •  & Jonathan B. Parr

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors compare the viral kinetics of first and second SARS-CoV-2 infections using data from an occupational surveillance scheme in the National Basketball League. They find that second infections tend to have a faster clearance time, and that clearance times in first and second infections were positively correlated.

    • Stephen M. Kissler
    • , James A. Hay
    •  & Yonatan H. Grad

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) requires longer, more toxic therapy than rifampicin-sensitive disease and is associated with a higher occurrence of long-term sequelae. In this mathematical modeling study, the authors estimate that incident RR-TB in 2020 will be responsible for ~6.9 million disability-adjusted life years; 44% due to post-tuberculosis sequelae.

    • Nicolas A. Menzies
    • , Brian W. Allwood
    •  & Ted Cohen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Recent estimates of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) intake are generally unavailable. Here the authors show a global SSBs intake of 2.7 servings/week in 2018 in adults (range: 0.7 South Asia, 7.8 Latin America/Caribbean); intakes were higher among males, younger, more educated, and urban adults.

    • Laura Lara-Castor
    • , Renata Micha
    •  & Rubina Hakeem

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors investigate the incidence and risk factors for post-COVID condition among people who had a mild initial SARS-CoV-2 infection in Norway. They use national linked registry data including ~215,000 individuals with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test who were not hospitalised and followed them up for 180 days after infection.

    • B-A. Reme
    • , J. Gjesvik
    •  & K. Magnusson

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is a haematological malignancy that is preceded by monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Here, the authors use a mechanistic model fitted to surveillance data from the United States to investigate whether variation in MM is best explained by incidence of MGUS or rate of progression to MM.

    • John H. Huber
    • , Mengmeng Ji
    •  & Su-Hsin Chang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have been developed to provide broader protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants. In this cohort study based on electronic health records from the United States, the authors estimate the effectiveness of bivalent, compared to monovalent, vaccines and no vaccination against a range of COVID-19-related outcomes.

    • Hung Fu Tseng
    • , Bradley K. Ackerson
    •  & Lei Qian

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Benefits of breastfeeding are well established, but a comprehensive study about its impacts on hospitalizations is lacking. Here, the authors use Korean nationwide birth cohort data (n = 1,608,540) and find that breastfeeding for at least 6 months was associated with a lower risk for subsequent hospital admissions.

    • Jeong-Seon Lee
    • , Jae Il Shin
    •  & Dong Keon Yon

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    WHO guidelines for classification of malaria elimination in a country require that the risk of human infection from zoonotic, as well as nonzoonotic, malaria parasites is negligible. In this Comment, the authors discuss the implications of this policy for countries, such as Malaysia, with no recent reported nonzoonotic cases but ongoing zoonotic transmission.

    • Kimberly M. Fornace
    • , Chris J. Drakeley
    •  & Kamruddin Ahmed

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors investigate immune responses following a third (booster) SARS-CoV-2 vaccination dose in a cohort of healthcare professionals in Denmark. They find stronger immune responses among those with a prior infection, and correlation between lower antibody responses and higher risk of subsequent breakthrough infection.

    • Laura Pérez-Alós
    • , Cecilie Bo Hansen
    •  & Peter Garred

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Types of clonal hematopoiesis (CH) differ in frequency and fitness. These findings uncover shared genetic architecture, suggest evolutionary trade-offs between CH types, and detail elevated leukemia risk in individuals with overlapping types of CH.

    • Derek W. Brown
    • , Liam D. Cato
    •  & Mitchell J. Machiela

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Control of rabies in Africa through mass vaccination of dogs may be compromised by cross-border transmission. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling and a benefit-cost analysis to demonstrate that coordinating rabies control measures across borders could lead to the elimination of dog rabies in Africa.

    • A. Bucher
    • , A. Dimov
    •  & J. Zinsstag

  • Article
    | Open Access

    It is unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 immunity decreases transmission through reduction in contagiousness of cases or susceptibility of contacts. Here, the authors use testing and contact data from Geneva, Switzerland and find that increased protection of contacts was the main driver of reduced transmission.

    • Denis Mongin
    • , Nils Bürgisser
    •  & Delphine Sophie Courvoisier

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Rapid identification of pathogens in neonatal infection, and corresponding antimicrobial susceptibility profiles, would improve patient outcomes and assist in antibiotic stewardship. In this work, the authors utilize metagenomic next-generation sequencing of post-mortem tissue samples to identify pathogens associated with neonatal deaths.

    • Vicky L. Baillie
    • , Shabir A. Madhi
    •  & Courtney P. Olwagen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    China maintained a ‘zero-COVID’ policy from early in the pandemic until late 2022 that employed various public health interventions with the aim of COVID-19 containment. Here, the authors use data from 131 outbreaks in China to estimate the effects of a range of interventions against different SARS-CoV-2 variants in diverse settings.

    • Yong Ge
    • , Xilin Wu
    •  & Shengjie Lai

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy are not fully understood. Here, the authors perform a cohort study using data from Scotland and find that infection was associated with increased risk of preterm birth and some adverse maternal outcomes, but there was no evidence of adverse outcomes associated with vaccination.

    • Laura Lindsay
    • , Clara Calvert
    •  & Sarah J. Stock

  • Article
    | Open Access

    White-tailed deer are an important reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA and continued monitoring of the virus in deer populations is needed. In this genomic epidemiology study from Ohio, the authors show that the virus has been introduced multiple times to deer from humans, and that it has evolved faster in deer.

    • Dillon S. McBride
    • , Sofya K. Garushyants
    •  & Andrew S. Bowman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Estimating health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of significance for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.9. Here, the authors show that population aging is expected to be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM2.5 in China by 2035, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare.

    • Fangjin Xu
    • , Qingxu Huang
    •  & Brett A. Bryan

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Identification of gene-by-environment interactions is crucial to understand the interplay of environmental effects on complex traits. Here, the authors present MonsterLM, a method for estimating the proportion of trait variance explained by gene-by-environment interactions in a fast, unbiased manner on biobank-scale datasets.

    • Matteo Di Scipio
    • , Mohammad Khan
    •  & Guillaume Paré

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Many chronic diseases present with desynchronized sleep-wake cycles, indicative of disrupted biorhythms. Here, the authors propose peripheral thermoregulation as a digital biomarker based on the association between lower temperature rhythms measured from wearable activity trackers with future onset of disease, such as type 2 diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, hypertension and pneumonia.

    • Thomas G. Brooks
    • , Nicholas F. Lahens
    •  & Carsten Skarke

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Measuring an individual’s level of exposure to COVID-19 is challenging, and it is therefore unclear whether high exposure may impact immunity. Here, the authors investigate this question using data from a correctional facility in Connecticut, USA, by comparing rates of infection in people who share cells, cellblocks, and with no known exposure.

    • Margaret L. Lind
    • , Murilo Dorion
    •  & Albert I. Ko

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The value of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow immunoassay tests for estimating individual disease risk is unclear. Here, the authors link testing data from the REACT-2 study in England to hospital and death records and show that vaccinated individuals with a negative LFIA test were at a higher risk of hospitalisation and death.

    • Matthew Whitaker
    • , Bethan Davies
    •  & Helen Ward

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The impacts of COVID-19 have been more severe in certain population groups, including migrants. In this total-population study from Sweden, the authors investigate the association between country of birth and COVID-19 related hospitalisation and death and describe how it changed over the first two years of the pandemic.

    • Mikael Rostila
    • , Agneta Cederström
    •  & Sol P. Juárez

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The serial interval (time between symptom onset in an infector and infectee) is usually estimated from contact tracing data, but this is not always available. Here, the authors develop a method for estimation of serial intervals using whole genome sequencing data and apply it data from clusters of SARS-CoV-2 in Victoria, Australia.

    • Jessica E. Stockdale
    • , Kurnia Susvitasari
    •  & Caroline Colijn

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The relative protection against Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection conferred by vaccination and previous infection are not fully understood. Here, the authors use data from a prospective cohort study in the Netherlands and show that hybrid immunity (vaccination plus previous infection) conferred strongest protection.

    • Brechje de Gier
    • , Anne J. Huiberts
    •  & Mirjam J. Knol

  • Editorial
    | Open Access

    One Health refers to the interconnectedness of the health of humans, animals, and the environment. It recognises that coordination across sectors is needed for effective prevention, detection, and management of infectious disease threats. Although the concept of One Health is not new, it has gained increased prominence following the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting national and international institutions to adopt One Health policies aimed at preventing disease spillover1–4. At Nature Communications, we have launched a Collection and call for papers in recognition of the need for better scientific evidence to support One Health policy ambitions.

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Cardiovascular and thromboembolic events (CVE) are common among hospitalised COVID-19 patients and are causes of many COVID-19-related deaths. Here, the authors examine whether genetic predisposition and lifestyle factors are associated with the risk of post-COVID-19 CVE using data from UK Biobank.

    • Junqing Xie
    • , Yuliang Feng
    •  & Daniel Prieto-Alhambra

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Triple artemisinin-based combination therapies have shown high efficacy for treatment of malaria in preliminary studies. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to assess whether these therapies could also delay the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance when compared against frontline therapies.

    • Tran Dang Nguyen
    • , Bo Gao
    •  & Ricardo Aguas

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Although human life expectancy has been increasing, time spent in good physical and cognitive health has not been rising at similar rate. Here, the authors show that both lifespan and healthspan are quantitatively linked to ancestral longevity, and that those from the longest-lived families have a healthier metabolomics profile before the onset of disease, highlighting the important role of the family in healthy survival.

    • Niels van den Berg
    • , Mar Rodríguez-Girondo
    •  & Marian Beekman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Chikungunya virus is endemic in Brazil and cases have been rapidly increasing in recent years. Here, the authors describe the expansion of a genomic surveillance program across the country allowing them to characterise the emergence and dispersal of two distinct subclades mainly seeded from the north eastern region.

    • Joilson Xavier
    • , Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara
    •  & Marta Giovanetti

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Evaluation of the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines is increasingly challenging due to high levels of exposure to infection and vaccination. Here, the authors use a model-based approach incorporating these factors and estimate that using a variant-matched rather than ancestral booster could prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over one year.

    • Alexandra B. Hogan
    • , Patrick Doohan
    •  & Azra C. Ghani

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