Glob. Change Biol. http://doi.org/jw8 (2012)

Methane emissions from the Arctic have the potential to provide a strong positive feedback to the climate system, enhancing the degree of climate warming. However, the main physical and environmental controls on Arctic methane emissions remain unclear. This knowledge gap fundamentally limits the accuracy of predictions of methane emissions and ultimately the extent of climate change that can be expected in the Arctic.

In an effort to distil the state-of-the-art in Arctic methane emissions research, David Olefeldt, from the Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Canada, and co-workers performed a synthesis of 65 studies involving over 300 Arctic sites where data on environmental and physical variables — including permafrost conditions — were available.

Their findings indicate that future changes in terrestrial high-latitude methane emissions will be more closely related to changes in moisture, soil temperature and vegetation composition than to the direct effects of permafrost thaw on organic matter availability.