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  • Matters Arising
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Sensitivity of Santorini eruption model predictions to input conditions

Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 851–853 (2023)Cite this article

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Matters Arising to this article was published on 25 September 2023

The Original Article was published on 02 August 2021

arising from C. Satow et al. Nature Geoscience https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00783-4 (2021)

Previous studies have linked rates of sea-level variation to volcanic eruptions globally1. Satow et al.2 presented detailed and robust sea-level change and high-resolution eruptive history data for a single island volcano—Santorini, Greece—combined with a 2D numerical model to correlate sea-level with volcanism. In the model, lowering sea level increases tensile stress in the magma chamber roof, leading to diking and eventually eruption. Having independently reproduced their model, we raise three main concerns: (1) the predicted stresses caused by sea-level change are strongly dependent on the very specific prescribed model dimensions and boundary conditions; (2) minor changes to the dimensions, dimensionality (2D to 3D) and/or the addition of a mantle analogue have major impacts on the model results; and (3) the model does not consider other important crustal loading conditions at the volcano. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the proposed model cannot be used to explain the apparent correlation between low sea level and eruption frequency.

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Fig. 1: Sensitivity and dimensional analysis of the Satow et al.2 bending beam model.
Fig. 2: Sea level versus eruption activity, including time lags.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Geology, and the Environment, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK

    R. J. Walker & C. Greenfield

  2. Department of Engineering, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK

    S. P. A. Gill

  3. Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK

    K. J. W. McCaffrey

  4. School of Geosciences, King’s College, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK

    T. L. Stephens

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  1. R. J. Walker
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  2. S. P. A. Gill
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Contributions

This Matters Arising is a result of discussions between all of the authors. S.P.A.G. reproduced the original numerical model from the described parameters, and produced new models, in discussion with R.J.W. and C.G.

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Correspondence to R. J. Walker.

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Walker, R.J., Gill, S.P.A., Greenfield, C. et al. Sensitivity of Santorini eruption model predictions to input conditions. Nat. Geosci. 16, 851–853 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01268-2

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