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The role of ocean dynamics in king penguin range estimation

Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages 120–121 (2019)Cite this article

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Matters Arising to this article was published on 28 January 2019

The Original Article was published on 26 February 2018

arising from R. Cristofari et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0084-2 (2018)

In a recent Article, Cristofari et al.1 discuss the impact that movements of the Antarctic Polar Front have had on historical king penguin populations, and make future projections based on potential climate change scenarios. They predict that 70% of the world’s breeding population will be severely impacted as the Polar Front, with its nutrient-rich upwelling and high productivity, moves polewards beyond the foraging range of many penguin colonies. We highlight here, however, that a detailed analysis of the models used does not support the projection of a poleward shift in the Polar Front’s future position, and that recent analyses show no evidence for such a shift having occurred in the last several decades.

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Fig. 1: Longitudinal comparison of the modelled future meridional ACC core displacement and SST contour displacement.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK

    A. J. S. Meijers, M. P. Meredith, E. J. Murphy, M. Belchier & E. F. Young

  2. College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St Petersburg, FL, USA

    D. P. Chambers

Authors
  1. A. J. S. Meijers
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  2. M. P. Meredith
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  3. E. J. Murphy
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  4. D. P. Chambers
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  5. M. Belchier
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  6. E. F. Young
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Contributions

A.J.S.M., M.P.M., D.P.C. and E.F.Y. provided physical oceanographic interpretations of the papers in question, and commentary on the present state of the art. E.J.M., M.B. and E.F.Y. provided the same for the ecological subject matter. A.J.S.M. created Fig. 1.

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Correspondence to A. J. S. Meijers.

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Meijers, A.J.S., Meredith, M.P., Murphy, E.J. et al. The role of ocean dynamics in king penguin range estimation. Nature Clim Change 9, 120–121 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0388-2

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