Loss of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) integrity does not confer an increased risk of progression to radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA)—unlike a history of knee injury, new findings suggest. In this nested case–control study, conducted in adults with risk factors for OA but without radiographic disease at baseline, 355 patients who went on to develop radiographic OA were matched to 355 controls who remained OA-free. Detection of ACL tears on the baseline MRI was not related to the onset of radiographic OA at any time point, whereas prior knee injury was associated with an increased likelihood of incident radiographic OA after 12–48 months (OR 1.51, 1.05–2.16).