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Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Abstract

To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

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Figure 1: Study site locations.
Figure 2: Shoreline erosion anomalies.
Figure 3: Wave energy flux and direction anomalies.
Figure 4: Water level anomalies.
Figure 5: Wave metrics and MEI correlations.

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Acknowledgements

Funding for this project was provided by the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the United States Geological Survey. California beach survey data collection was funded by the California Department of Boating and Waterways and the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Many thanks to C. Fletcher, A. Gibbs and B. Richmond for providing beach survey data from Hawaii. Waikato Regional Council and Hawkes Bay Regional Council provided the New Zealand data. Australian survey data collection in New South Wales was supported by the Australian Research Council and Warringah Council, with Queensland data provided by Gold Coast City Council. Wave and water level data for these sites was supplied by Manly Hydraulics Laboratory (New South Wales) and Gold Coast City Council (Queensland).

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P.L.B. and A.D.S. developed the original concept for this study. P.L.B. directed the analysis and wrote the original version of this paper. M.D.H., S.V. and E.R.-G., analysed the data. All authors contributed to interpreting results and improvement of this paper.

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Correspondence to Patrick L. Barnard.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Barnard, P., Short, A., Harley, M. et al. Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Nature Geosci 8, 801–807 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2539

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