Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter to the Editor
  • Published:

Agent orange exposure modeling: fallacies and errors

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology volume 24, pages 444–445 (2014)Cite this article

Subjects

In a 2009 paper in JESEE, Ginevan et al.1 questioned the validity of our model, also published in this journal, for estimating an index of exposure opportunity (EOI) to military herbicides used in Vietnam (1961–1971).2, 3, 4, 5 We had already pointed out many of their conceptual and interpretational errors when the substance of their paper was presented to a 2007 Institute of Medicine meeting (they cite neither their 2007 presentation nor our response). While we regret not having replied to their published critique immediately, there is now urgency to correct the serious errors in Ginevan et al.1 because they have once again distributed their work to an Institute of Medicine (IOM) Agent Orange panel, and it is essential that these data not be used to further undermine efforts at studying the long-term consequences of exposure to military herbicides.

To our surprise, upon further investigation of their paper, we have now found even more serious errors. The scores (E4) they use do not replicate the E4s actually produced by our software system. Ginevan et al.1 selected points on or near the spray paths of three missions to simulate deviation from the straight-line projections we use in our models. They do not describe the methods used to calculate E4. They then compound the E4 errors by interpreting both the scores and the model itself inappropriately. Ironically, the E4s for these points yield a strong confirmation of the utility of our model even for paths that deviate from straight lines. The Supplementary materials tabulate these data.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

References

  1. Ginevan ME, Ross JH, Watkins DK . Assessing exposure to allied ground troops in the Vietnam War: a comparison of AgDRIFT and Exposure Opportunity Index models. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 2009; 19: 187–200.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  2. Stellman SD, Stellman JM . Estimation of exposure to Agent Orange and other defoliants among American troops in Vietnam: a methodological approach. Am J Ind Med 1986; 9: 305–321.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  3. Stellman JM, Stellman SD, Weber T, Tomasallo C, Stellman AB, Christian R, Jr. . A geographic information system for characterizing exposure to agent orange and other herbicides in Vietnam. Environ Health Perspect 2003; 111: 321–328.

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  4. Stellman SD, Stellman JM . Exposure opportunity models for Agent Orange, dioxin, and other military herbicides used in Vietnam, 1961–1971. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol 2004; 14: 354–362.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Stellman JM, Stellman SD, Christian R, Weber T, Tomasallo C . The extent and patterns of usage of Agent Orange and other herbicides in Vietnam. Nature 2003; 422: 681–687.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. CDC. Serum 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin levels in US Army Vietnam-era veterans. The Centers for Disease Control Veterans Health Studies [see comments]. JAMA 1988; 260: 1249–1254.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Stellman JM, Stellman SD . Characterizing Exposure of Veterans to Agent Orange and Other Herbicides in Vietnam. Final Report to the Institute of Medicine. National Academy of Sciences: New York, NY. 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Murphy JM, Murfin GD, Jamieson NL, Rambo AT, Glenn JA, Jones LP et al. The Effects of Herbicides in South Vietnam: Part B, Working Papers, February 1974: Beliefs, Attitudes, and Behavior of Lowland Vietnamese. NTIS AD-779 030: National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council. 1974.

  9. Institute of Medicine (U.S.). Committee on the Assessment of Wartime Exposure to Herbicides in Vietnam. Veterans and Agent Orange: Health Effects of Herbicides Used in Vietnam. National Academies Press: Washington, DC. 1994.

  10. Institute of Medicine (U.S.). Committee on the Assessment of Wartime Exposure to Herbicides in Vietnam. Characterizing Exposure of Veterans to Agent Orange and Other Herbicides used in Vietnam: Scientific Considerations Regarding a Request for Proposals for Research. National Academies Press: Washington, DC. 1997.

  11. Beyea J, Hatch M, Stellman SD, Santella RM, Teitelbaum SL, Prokopczyk B et al. Validation and calibration of a model used to reconstruct historical exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons for use in epidemiologic studies. Environ Health Perspect 2006; 114: 1053–1058.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  12. Reynolds P, Hurley SE, Goldberg DE, Yerabati S, Gunier RB, Hertz A et al. Residential proximity to agricultural pesticide use and incidence of breast cancer in the California Teachers Study cohort. Environ Res 2004; 96: 206–218.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. Ward MH, Nuckols JR, Weigel SJ, Maxwell SK, Cantor KP, Miller RS . Identifying populations potentially exposed to agricultural pesticides using remote sensing and a Geographic Information System. Environ Health Perspect 2000; 108: 5–12.

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  14. National Research Council. Committee on the Effects of Herbicides in South Vietnam. The Effects of Herbicides in South Vietnam: Part A. National Academy of Sciences: Washington, DC. 1974.

  15. Military Assistance Command–Vietnam. Command Manual for Herbicide Reporting System (HERBS). US Department of Defense: San Francisco, CA. 1970.

  16. Institute of Medicine (U.S.). Committee on the Assessment of Wartime Exposure to Herbicides in Vietnam. Characterizing Exposure of Veterans to Agent Orange and Other Herbicides Used in Vietnam: Final Report, Sept. 30, 2003. National Academies Press: Washington, DC. 2003.

  17. Institute of Medicine. Committee on Making Best Use of the Agent Orange Exposure Reconstruction Model. The Utility of Proximity-Based Herbicide Exposure Assessment in Epidemiologic Studies of Vietnam Veterans. National Academies Press: Washington, DC. 2008.

  18. Michaels D . Doubt is Their Product. How Industry’s Assault on Science Threatens Your Health. Oxford University Press: New York. 2008.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA

    Steven D Stellman

  2. Department of Health Policy and Management, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA

    Jeanne M Stellman

Authors
  1. Steven D Stellman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jeanne M Stellman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jeanne M Stellman.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Supplementary Information accompanies the paper on the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology website

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Stellman, S., Stellman, J. Agent orange exposure modeling: fallacies and errors. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 24, 444–445 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/jes.2013.45

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/jes.2013.45

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links