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| Open AccessUrban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century
Considering changes in urban land extent, population, and climate over the 21st century, the authors find spatial urban land patterns can reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, at regional scales.
- Jing Gao
- & Melissa S. Bukovsky
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| Open AccessA human-machine collaborative approach measures economic development using satellite imagery
A human-AI collaborative computer vision algorithm produces grid-level economic statistics using satellite images and lightweight human annotation, revealing granular development patterns in North Korea and five other least developed Asian countries.
- Donghyun Ahn
- , Jeasurk Yang
- & Sungwon Park
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Article
| Open AccessCircular wood use can accelerate global decarbonisation but requires cross-sectoral coordination
Cascading and especially circular wood uses enhance climate-change mitigation achieved by forestry. In combination, these measures could cumulatively mitigate 258.8 million tonnes CO2e by 2050 in the UK but implementation barriers must be overcome.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , John R. Healey
- & David Styles
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| Open AccessThe changing impact of rural electrification on Indian agriculture
Electrified groundwater irrigation is a major driver of India’s agricultural growth. India refocussed rural electrification towards household electrification in early 2000s in detriment of groundwater irrigation electrification, the authors find.
- Sudatta Ray
- & Hemant K. Pullabhotla
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Article
| Open AccessImpacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
This study quantifies mid-21st century hourly building energy use in 277 urban areas in the USA, revealing spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes influenced by future climate, population dynamics, and electric power sector decarbonization.
- Chenghao Wang
- , Jiyun Song
- & Robert B. Jackson
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| Open AccessAchieving health-oriented air pollution control requires integrating unequal toxicities of industrial particles
Health-oriented emissions reduction in China focusing on the iron and steel industry can reduce costs by 1.56 billion dollars while lowering the population-weighted toxic potency-adjusted exposure risk.
- Di Wu
- , Haotian Zheng
- & Jiming Hao
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| Open AccessConcentration of asset owners exposed to power sector stranded assets may trigger climate policy resistance
Von Dulong analyzes owners and incidence of asset stranding in the power sector globally. She shows that Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the US are highly exposed to stranded assets, especially coal plants and explores the linkages between asset stranding and climate policy resistance.
- Angelika von Dulong
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| Open AccessHyperbranched polymer functionalized flexible perovskite solar cells with mechanical robustness and reduced lead leakage
The low adhesive fracture energy of electron transport layer/perovskite interface makes it prone to delamination under mechanical stress. Here, authors develop polyamide-amine-based hyperbranched polymer to provide strong adhesion, leading to device efficiency of over 25% for perovskite solar cells.
- Zhihao Li
- , Chunmei Jia
- & Zhen Li
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Article
| Open AccessImproved human greenspace exposure equality during 21st century urbanization
A study of 1,028 global cities from 2000-2018 shows increased human exposure to greenspace, reducing greenspace inequality. Notably, cities in the Global South improved nearly four times faster than those in the Global North. These insights can guide city greening strategies.
- Shengbiao Wu
- , Bin Chen
- & Peng Gong
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| Open AccessAn early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Livestock grazing may drive grassland degradation. Here, the authors use process-based modelling validated with empirical data to define a stocking rate threshold across grassland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, identify vulnerable areas and predict threshold shifts under future climate scenarios.
- Qiuan Zhu
- , Huai Chen
- & Yanfen Wang
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| Open AccessAchieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions
Achieving decent living standards for global emerging economies is estimated to lead to an additional 8.6 Gt of CO2 emission with more than half of emerging economies emitting additional CO2 more than the value of their emission reduction commitments
- Jingwen Huo
- , Jing Meng
- & Dabo Guan
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| Open AccessThe global and regional air quality impacts of dietary change
Food production, especially of animal products, is a major source of air pollutants. Here, the authors quantify the impacts dietary changes towards more plant-based diets could have for air quality, labour productivity, and human health.
- Marco Springmann
- , Rita Van Dingenen
- & Adrian Leip
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| Open AccessSustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation
Sustainable development of blue carbon has increased globally over the past two decades. Global cooperation could enable countries to improve blue carbon sustainable development, increase carbon sequestration, and generate up to $136.34 million in 2030 in economic benefits.
- Cuicui Feng
- , Guanqiong Ye
- & Zhenci Xu
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| Open AccessCosts and health benefits of the rural energy transition to carbon neutrality in China
Electric cooking and air-to-air heat pump adoption in China advances carbon neutrality and the rural energy transition, with the transformation costs offset by monetized health benefits in most provinces.
- Teng Ma
- , Silu Zhang
- & Yang Xie
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| Open AccessReducing risks of antibiotics to crop production requires land system intensification within thresholds
Crop intensification has increased agricultural production albeit with an increase in field antibiotic pollution. Here, Chen et al. project how antibiotic pollution undermines production and how intensification needs to be kept below a threshold.
- Fangkai Zhao
- , Lei Yang
- & Liding Chen
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| Open AccessThe neglected role of abandoned cropland in supporting both food security and climate change mitigation
This work demonstrates how global abandoned cropland is an untapped land resource. If recultivated and reforested strategically, it can provide substantial carbon sequestration and food production potential to support our shared climate and food security goals.
- Qiming Zheng
- , Tim Ha
- & Lian Pin Koh
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| Open AccessLocation is a major barrier for transferring US fossil fuel employment to green jobs
This study tests the case for the absorption of current fossil fuel workers in emerging green jobs from the perspective of their skills and location. It finds location to be a barrier in a Just Transition for these workers.
- Junghyun Lim
- , Michaël Aklin
- & Morgan R. Frank
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| Open AccessA net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage
This study indicates that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel in China’s power generation system could reduce the power shortage rate by up to 9% in 2050, and increase system resilience during weather events relative to a zero fossil fuel system.
- Jing-Li Fan
- , Zezheng Li
- & Bo Shen
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Article
| Open AccessCausal inference from cross-sectional earth system data with geographical convergent cross mapping
Temporal causation models perform poorly in causal inference for variables with limited temporal variations. This paper establishes a causal inference model, which can reveal the nonlinear complex casual associations based on cross-sectional Earth System data.
- Bingbo Gao
- , Jianyu Yang
- & Jinfeng Wang
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| Open AccessGlobal fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions
An analysis of the IPCC AR6 scenarios database explores how quickly coal, oil, and gas production and use should be reduced in line with net-zero goals, and points to the need to adopt phase-out benchmarks alongside other climate mitigation targets.
- Ploy Achakulwisut
- , Peter Erickson
- & Steve Pye
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| Open AccessFeeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives
Meat and dairy alternatives are promoted for diet sustainability. Here, the authors use a modelling approach to show that replacing 50% of pork, chicken, beef and milk globally with plant-based alternatives can reduce GHG emissions by 6.3 Gt CO2eq year-1 and more than half biodiversity loss by 2050.
- Marta Kozicka
- , Petr Havlík
- & Noel Gurwick
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| Open AccessGlobal land and water limits to electrolytic hydrogen production using wind and solar resources
This study composes a country-specific analysis of land and water requirements for electrolytic hydrogen production, revealing nations constrained in achieving self-sufficiency in hydrogen supply and nations who can become hydrogen exporters.
- Davide Tonelli
- , Lorenzo Rosa
- & Francesco Contino
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| Open AccessSustainable reference points for multispecies coral reef fisheries
The sustainability of the majority of multispecies reef fisheries around the globe remains unassessed. This study provides context-specific sustainable reference points for coral reef fish using environmental conditions. Using these reference points, they show that most reef fish stocks have failed at least one fisheries sustainability benchmark.
- Jessica Zamborain-Mason
- , Joshua E. Cinner
- & Sean R. Connolly
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| Open AccessInherent spatiotemporal uncertainty of renewable power in China
Renewable uncertainty analysis is vital for stochastic-aware research. This study generates a benchmark dataset of year-long hourly renewable prediction errors in China, and reveals the law of the spatiotemporal distribution of renewable uncertainty.
- Jianxiao Wang
- , Liudong Chen
- & Guannan He
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| Open AccessRapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality
The risk of heat-mortality is increasing sharply. The authors report that heat-mortality levels of a 1-in-100-year summer in the climate of 2000 can be expected once every ten to twenty years in the current climate and at least once in five years with 2 °C of global warming.
- Samuel Lüthi
- , Christopher Fairless
- & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
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| Open AccessThe cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030
Solar-powered standalone systems drastically lower the cost of electrifying sub-Saharan Africa. Household electrification can be provided at 7c USD per person per day on average. To reflect inter- and intra-country variance, policymakers should consider electrification cost curves.
- Florian Egli
- , Churchill Agutu
- & Tobias S. Schmidt
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| Open AccessTruck platooning reshapes greenhouse gas emissions of the integrated vehicle-road infrastructure system
Truck platooning allows for trucks to travel synchronously in close proximity to improve fuel efficiency. Here, authors evaluate the decarbonization effects of platooning on the vehicle-road system at a large-scale road network level revealing a trade-off between emission reduction and cost rise.
- Huailei Cheng
- , Yuhong Wang
- & Tian Jin
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| Open AccessA lignin-derived material improves plant nutrient bioavailability and growth through its metal chelating capacity
Biorefinery lignin waste has little value in the market. Here, Liu et al. find that water-soluble lignin, converted from sulfuric acid lignin, improves plant iron bioavailability and growth through a metal chelating capacity comparable to the metal chelator EDTA.
- Qiang Liu
- , Tsubasa Kawai
- & Baohai Li
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| Open AccessHow climate policy commitments influence energy systems and the economies of US states
In the US, states vary in their efforts to address climate change. Stronger state climate policies reduce CO2 emissions without harming the economy, but these reductions are unlikely to meet the goals in the Paris Climate Accord.
- Parrish Bergquist
- & Christopher Warshaw
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Article
| Open AccessDiscovery and rational engineering of PET hydrolase with both mesophilic and thermophilic PET hydrolase properties
Extensive research efforts have been directed towards the development of PET hydrolases with improved activity, but template enzymes used are limited. Here, the authors report a PET hydrolase from Cryptosporangium aurantiacum (CaPETase) that exhibits high thermostability and PET degradation activity at ambient temperatures and determine its crystal structure.
- Hwaseok Hong
- , Dongwoo Ki
- & Kyung-Jin Kim
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| Open AccessGlobal air pollution exposure and poverty
This study shows that 716 million of the world’s lowest income people live in areas with unsafe levels of air pollution, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. With limited access to healthcare, they are especially vulnerable.
- Jun Rentschler
- & Nadezda Leonova
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Article
| Open AccessInterconnectedness enhances network resilience of multimodal public transportation systems for Safe-to-Fail urban mobility
The growing interconnectedness of networked infrastructures has a complex impact on resilience in urban environments. Xu and Chopra quantify these effects using network resilience analysis and highlight the benefits of topological interconnectedness within multimodal public transportation systems.
- Zizhen Xu
- & Shauhrat S. Chopra
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Article
| Open AccessBlock-level vulnerability assessment reveals disproportionate impacts of natural hazards across the conterminous United States
Introduces a precise, machine-learning-based Socio-Economic-Infrastructure Vulnerability index for natural hazards that uncovers stark variations in vulnerability at the block level emphasizing crucial information for risk-informed decision making.
- Farnaz Yarveysi
- , Atieh Alipour
- & Hamid Moradkhani
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal forest fragmentation change from 2000 to 2020
Forest losses and gains are highly dynamic processes. Here, the authors present a forest fragmentation index to map distribution and temporal changes of forest fragments globally, revealing major trends and patterns during the first two decades of the 21st century.
- Jun Ma
- , Jiawei Li
- & Jiajia Liu
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| Open AccessA spatio-temporal analysis investigating completeness and inequalities of global urban building data in OpenStreetMap
Building data is needed for assessing progress towards urban Sustainable Development Goals. An international team of scientists studies the spatial distribution of buildings in all cities globally and unveils their uneven coverage in OpenStreetMap.
- Benjamin Herfort
- , Sven Lautenbach
- & Alexander Zipf
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| Open AccessBuilt structures influence patterns of energy demand and CO2 emissions across countries
Extent and spatial patterns of settlements and infrastructures strongly affect resource demand of national economies worldwide. Their influence on final energy and CO2 emissions is almost as large as that of gross domestic product (GDP).
- Helmut Haberl
- , Markus Löw
- & Juan Antonio Duro
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| Open AccessStakeholder integration predicts better outcomes from groundwater sustainability policy
This paper shows that integrating diverse stakeholders into management plans results in better protection, especially for those most vulnerable to the impacts of natural resource depletion.
- Debra Perrone
- , Melissa M. Rohde
- & E. J. Remson
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| Open AccessThe narrowing gap in developed and developing country emission intensities reduces global trade’s carbon leakage
International trade redistributes production activities to regions with varying emission intensities. This study finds that the convergence of emission intensities between the global South - North and changes in trade patterns have resulted in declining net emissions in trade in the past decade.
- Jing Meng
- , Jingwen Huo
- & Kuishuang Feng
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| Open AccessOffshore freshened groundwater in the Pearl River estuary and shelf as a significant water resource
A large and relatively fresh groundwater reservoir is identified in Pearl River estuary and adjacent shelf. This offshore low-salinity groundwater, likely a global phenomenon, has great potential to alleviate the pressure of future water shortages.
- Chong Sheng
- , Jiu Jimmy Jiao
- & Jinghe Cao
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| Open AccessTracing metal footprints via global renewable power value chains
In this study, the authors report that, developed economies allocate metal-intensive-low value-added production activities to developing economies in global renewable power value chains. It necessitates building metal-efficient and green supply chains for just transition of power sector.
- Rao Fu
- , Kun Peng
- & Jiashuo Li
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| Open AccessA research and development investment strategy to achieve the Paris climate agreement
Timely R&D investment in green technologies lowers mitigation costs with positive employment effects. Carbon revenues are sufficient to finance the additional R&D investment and generate economic benefits.
- Lara Aleluia Reis
- , Zoi Vrontisi
- & Massimo Tavoni
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| Open AccessQuantitative evaluation of large corporate climate action initiatives shows mixed progress in their first half-decade
More companies are setting climate targets, but detailed evaluations remain scarce, raising questions on their effectiveness. Here, authors assess the progress of 102 of the largest companies in the world by revenue for the period 2015–2019.
- Ivan Ruiz Manuel
- & Kornelis Blok
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| Open AccessHidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment
The climate benefits of battery electric vehicles relative to internal combustion engine vehicles are favorable but usually delayed. The authors show the delay threshold in China and call for more attention to the temporal characteristics of climate benefits.
- Yue Ren
- , Xin Sun
- & Xinzhu Zheng
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Article
| Open AccessThe global power sector’s low-carbon transition may enhance sustainable development goal achievement
The low-carbon power transition could enhance global sustainable development goal (SDG) progress, but hinder that of developing economies under fossil fuel-based scenarios. Meanwhile, SDG synergies and trade-offs exist within and between economies.
- Kun Peng
- , Kuishuang Feng
- & Jiashuo Li
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Article
| Open AccessPrehistoric population expansion in Central Asia promoted by the Altai Holocene Climatic Optimum
The impact of climate change on Holocene human activity in the Altai-Sayan region of Central Asia is unclear. Here, the authors use pollen, biogenic silica, and isotope records from lake cores to show that the climate prompted human population expansion and intensified cultural exchange during the Bronze Age.
- Lixiong Xiang
- , Xiaozhong Huang
- & Fahu Chen
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| Open AccessFood demand displaced by global refugee migration influences water use in already water stressed countries
While minimal in most host countries, the water needed to produce the food consumed by refugees can have a large effect on water stress in vulnerable countries. Small changes to food trade and refugee resettlement policies can alleviate this unequal burden.
- Leonardo Bertassello
- , Marc F. Müller
- & Michèle C. Müller-Itten
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Article
| Open AccessSpatially-optimized urban greening for reduction of population exposure to land surface temperature extremes
This study uses earth observation data and proposes a method to evaluate and optimize the increment of urban greening to reduce the population exposure to extreme land surface temperatures in cities.
- Emanuele Massaro
- , Rossano Schifanella
- & Gregory Duveiller
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Article
| Open AccessValue chain carbon footprints of Chinese listed companies
A paper led by Prof. Zhang evaluates the value chain carbon footprints of Chinese listed companies. The results could encourage collaborative climate actions along value chains and help investors understand the environmental impacts of their investment.
- Zengkai Zhang
- , Jiaoyan Li
- & Dabo Guan
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Article
| Open AccessAllocating capital-associated CO2 emissions along the full lifespan of capital investments helps diffuse emission responsibility
This study proposes an alternative approach for assessing CO2 responsibility of capital assets, through allocating required CO2 from the production of assets over their lifespans of use. It improves the assessment of emission equity across generations.
- Quanliang Ye
- , Maarten S. Krol
- & Klaus Hubacek