Featured
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| Open AccessHigher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies
Access to low cost finance is vital for developing economies’ transition to green energy. Here the authors show how modelled decarbonization pathways for developing economies are disproportionately impacted by different weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions.
- Nadia Ameli
- , Olivier Dessens
- & Michael Grubb
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal LiDAR land elevation data reveal greatest sea-level rise vulnerability in the tropics
Predicting the risk of flooding in coastal environments relies on accurate land elevation data, but this is not available in many parts of the world. Here the authors apply a global lowland digital terrain model derived from satellite LiDAR and determine that the regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise are in the tropics.
- A. Hooijer
- & R. Vernimmen
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Article
| Open AccessApproximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island)
Summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates can be used to estimate past demography, but methods to test for associations with environmental change are lacking. Here, DiNapoli et al. propose an approach using Approximate Bayesian Computation and illustrate it in a case study of Rapa Nui.
- Robert J. DiNapoli
- , Enrico R. Crema
- & Terry L. Hunt
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Article
| Open AccessCommercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways
Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial (harvested) forestry is disputed. Here the authors apply dynamic life cycle assessment to show that new commercial conifer forests can achieve up to 269% more GHG mitigation than semi-natural forests, over 100 years.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , John R. Healey
- & David Styles
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Article
| Open AccessEvaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Aviation contributes to climate change and ways to reduce its emissions are widely debated. Here, the authors assess the effects of technology improvements and the use of sustainable aviation fuels and find that even when these are considered aviation is unlikely to meet emissions goals in line with the Paris Agreement.
- Volker Grewe
- , Arvind Gangoli Rao
- & Katrin Dahlmann
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessInadequate methods undermine a study of malaria, deforestation and trade
- Nikolas Kuschnig
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Review Article
| Open AccessCity footprints and SDGs provide untapped potential for assessing city sustainability
Whether or not a city achieves absolute sustainability is difficult to assess with existing frameworks. Here the authors, in a review, show that a further integration of consumption-based accounting and benchmarking is necessary to aid the monitoring and assessment of Sustainable Development Goals in cities.
- Thomas Wiedmann
- & Cameron Allen
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Article
| Open AccessImpact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization of the electric power sector
Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air can influence power sector planning and operations. Here the authors show how carbon removal options lower costs of deep decarbonization and alter electric sector investments.
- John E. T. Bistline
- & Geoffrey J. Blanford
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Article
| Open AccessCross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought
European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders. Here the authors find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change.
- Ertug Ercin
- , Ted I. E. Veldkamp
- & Johannes Hunink
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Article
| Open AccessSource sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales
Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the most important environmental health risk factors in many regions. Here, the authors present an assessment of PM2.5 emission sources and the related health impacts across global to sub-national scales and find that over 1 million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating PM2.5 mass associated with fossil fuel combustion emissions.
- Erin E. McDuffie
- , Randall V. Martin
- & Michael Brauer
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Article
| Open AccessProjected losses of ecosystem services in the US disproportionately affect non-white and lower-income populations
Social inequalities may be reflected in how ecosystem services are distributed among groups of people. Here the authors estimate the distribution of three ecosystem services across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the US between 2020 and 2100, finding that non-white and lower-income groups disproportionately bear the loss of ecosystem service benefits.
- Jesse D. Gourevitch
- , Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez
- & Taylor H. Ricketts
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Article
| Open AccessLimited application of reflective surfaces can mitigate urban heat pollution
Reflective surfaces have been recommended to mitigate urban heat pollution but can be expensive to apply at a large scale. This work shows that applying them to only the upstream half of a neighborhood can lead to disporportionately high cooling benefits relative to cost.
- Sushobhan Sen
- & Lev Khazanovich
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Article
| Open AccessPersistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies
Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies have generated conflicting assessments; as social welfare is affected by regional heterogeneity. Here the authors show that economically optimal pathways are consistent with climate stabilization but are characterized by persistent economic inequalities due to climate damages.
- Paolo Gazzotti
- , Johannes Emmerling
- & Massimo Tavoni
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Perspective
| Open AccessFinancing a sustainable ocean economy
The ocean supports many livelihoods, but this is currently not sustainable with pressures on the climate and ecosystems. Here, in this perspective, the authors outline the barriers and solutions for financing a sustainable ocean economy.
- U. Rashid Sumaila
- , Melissa Walsh
- & Junjie Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessDisproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities
Individual exposure to heat is associated with adverse health and economic outcomes. Here, the authors show that people of color and people living in poverty bear a disproportionate burden of urban heat exposure in almost all major cities in the continental United States.
- Angel Hsu
- , Glenn Sheriff
- & Diego Manya
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Article
| Open Access1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
Established climate mitigation modelling relies on controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, but neglects to consider degrowth scenarios. Here the authors show that degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability and thus need to be thoroughly assessed.
- Lorenz T. Keyßer
- & Manfred Lenzen
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated
Quantifying land use change is critical in tackling global challenges related to food, climate and biodiversity. Here the authors show that land use change has affected 32 % of the global land area in six decades (1960- 2019) by combining multiple open datasets to create the HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment +.
- Karina Winkler
- , Richard Fuchs
- & Martin Herold
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Article
| Open AccessAgricultural subsidies and global greenhouse gas emissions
Agricultural sectors receive US$600 billion per year in government support, providing incentives for GHG emission-intensive production. Here, the authors show that removing this support will not reduce global GHG emissions by much; rather it will need to be radically redirected to contribute to climate change mitigation.
- David Laborde
- , Abdullah Mamun
- & Rob Vos
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Article
| Open AccessOn the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty
Determining attractive response strategies for international climate policy is a complex task. Here, the authors develop a meta-model that disentangles the main uncertainties using full literature ranges and use it to directly compare the insights of the cost-minimising and cost-benefit modelling communities.
- Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst
- , Andries F. Hof
- & Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Article
| Open AccessCombining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
Ambitious climate policies can negatively impact the global poor by affecting income, food and energy prices. Here, the authors quantify this effect, and show that it can be compensated by national redistribution of the carbon pricing revenues in combination with international climate finance.
- Bjoern Soergel
- , Elmar Kriegler
- & Alexander Popp
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Article
| Open AccessTracking the global reduction of marine traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 response has led to unparalleled changes in the functioning of human society, from travel restrictions to changes in consumption. Here the authors use high resolution satellite data to track the global reduction in marine traffic during the pandemic, and more recent hints of recovery to pre-lockdown levels.
- David March
- , Kristian Metcalfe
- & Brendan J. Godley
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Article
| Open AccessEnergy implications of the 21st century agrarian transition
The global agrarian transition is characterized by a rise in large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs), whose energy impacts are unknown. Here, the authors assess how LSLAs change land use, finding that they necessitate greater investment in energy to meet demands, and greater greenhouse gas emissions.
- Lorenzo Rosa
- , Maria Cristina Rulli
- & Paolo D’Odorico
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Article
| Open AccessThe presence of Superfund sites as a determinant of life expectancy in the United States
Superfund sites have hazardous wastes that could affect the health of those who live near them, but this has not been assessed across the USA. Here the authors find that proximity to superfund sites decreases life expectancy and is further exacerbated by sociodemographic and climate change factors.
- Amin Kiaghadi
- , Hanadi S. Rifai
- & Clint N. Dawson
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Perspective
| Open AccessA policy roadmap for negative emissions using direct air capture
Negative emission technologies are central to avoiding catastrophic climate change. Deploying engineered solutions such as direct air capture requires a policy sequencing strategy that focuses on “incentives + mandates” in early adopters, while creating positive spillovers that incentivize follower countries to take policy action.
- Jonas Meckling
- & Eric Biber
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Article
| Open AccessPolicy assessments for the carbon emission flows and sustainability of Bitcoin blockchain operation in China
The growing energy consumption and carbon emissions of Bitcoin mining could potentially undermine global sustainability efforts. Here, the authors show the annual energy consumption of the Bitcoin blockchain in China is expected to peak in 2024 at 296.59 Twh and generate 130.50 million metric tons of carbon emissions.
- Shangrong Jiang
- , Yuze Li
- & Shouyang Wang
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Article
| Open AccessUniversal resilience patterns in labor markets
Recent technological, social, and educational changes are profoundly impacting our work, but what makes labour markets resilient to those labour shocks? Here, the authors show that labour markets resemble ecological systems whose resilience depends critically on the network of skill similarities between different jobs.
- Esteban Moro
- , Morgan R. Frank
- & Iyad Rahwan
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Article
| Open AccessEvaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world
The impacts of water scarcity depend on physical basin characteristics and global economic dynamics. Here, the authors show scenario assumptions can yield either highly positive or negative economic impacts due to water scarcity, and the drivers of these impacts are basin-specific and cannot be determined a priori.
- Flannery Dolan
- , Jonathan Lamontagne
- & Jae Edmonds
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Article
| Open AccessMeasuring inequality in community resilience to natural disasters using large-scale mobility data
Understanding how cities respond to extreme weather is critical; as such events are becoming more frequent. Using anonymized mobile phone data for Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the authors find that mobility behavior exposes neighborhood disparities in resilience capacity and recovery.
- Boyeong Hong
- , Bartosz J. Bonczak
- & Constantine E. Kontokosta
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Article
| Open AccessA plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China
A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here, the authors detail how to structure a high-ambition, plant-by-plant coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs.
- Ryna Yiyun Cui
- , Nathan Hultman
- & Mengye Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessProspective contributions of biomass pyrolysis to China’s 2050 carbon reduction and renewable energy goals
BIPP with biochar sequestration is a ready-to-implement negative emission technology in China. Here, the authors show that its national deployment could contribute to a 61% reduction of carbon emissions per GDP in 2030 compared to 2005, and contribute 13–31% of the global biomass-based negative emission goal by 2050.
- Qing Yang
- , Hewen Zhou
- & Michael B. McElroy
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Article
| Open AccessImpacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments
Temperature changes as a result of climate change are expected to impact electric capacity and investment. Here, the authors show that in the United States under socioeconomic pathway 2 and RCP 8.5 mean temperature rises will drive increased electricity demand (0.5-8%) by 2100, along increases in capital investments by 3-22%.
- Zarrar Khan
- , Gokul Iyer
- & Marshall Wise
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Article
| Open AccessWarming from tropical deforestation reduces worker productivity in rural communities
It is expected that tropical deforestation and related increases in heat exposure have negative impacts on labour productivity, but the size of the effect is not well known. Here, the authors show that deforestation reduces productivity by 8.22% in rural Indonesia and causes behavioural adaptation responses like more work breaks.
- Yuta J. Masuda
- , Teevrat Garg
- & June T. Spector
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to “Catch rate composition affects assessment of protected area impacts”
- John Lynham
- , Anton Nikolaev
- & Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessCatch rate composition affects assessment of protected area impacts
- Jonathan R. Sweeney
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Article
| Open AccessMalaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming
The effect of climate change on highland malaria transmission remains unclear because of increasing and decreasing trends. Here, Rodó et al. analyze malaria case data and climate data for the Ethiopian highlands from 1968 to 2008 and find that changes in temperature and associated climate variability facilitated the effect of interventions at the beginning of the 21st century.
- Xavier Rodó
- , Pamela P. Martinez
- & Mercedes Pascual
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Article
| Open AccessTropical cyclone exposure is associated with increased hospitalization rates in older adults
Tropical cyclones can cause severe damage and can thus have devastating impacts on societies. Here, the authors use Medicare data to show that tropical cyclone exposure in the United States is associated with increased hospitalization rates for older adults from many different acute causes.
- Robbie M. Parks
- , G. Brooke Anderson
- & Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou
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Article
| Open AccessProductive Ecosystems and the arrow of development
As countries experience economic growth, diversification of economic activities may occur. Here, the authors develop a probabilistic model to examine the diversification of economic activities and how countries may move from small ecosystem products to advanced product clusters over time.
- Neave O’Clery
- , Muhammed Ali Yıldırım
- & Ricardo Hausmann
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Article
| Open AccessPerceptions of the appropriate response to norm violation in 57 societies
Little is known about people’s preferred responses to norm violations across countries. Here, in a study of 57 countries, the authors highlight cultural similarities and differences in people’s perception of the appropriateness of norm violations.
- Kimmo Eriksson
- , Pontus Strimling
- & Paul A. M. Van Lange
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Article
| Open AccessPower sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean
Substantial investment will be required in renewables to implement climate change mitigation. Here, the authors focus on Latin America and the Caribbean and find that climate impacts on renewables would result in additional investments $12-114 billion by 2100.
- Silvia R. Santos da Silva
- , Mohamad I. Hejazi
- & Chris R. Vernon
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Article
| Open AccessInequality is rising where social network segregation interacts with urban topology
Not much is known about the joint relationships between social network structure, urban geography, and inequality. Here, the authors analyze an online social network and find that the fragmentation of social networks is significantly higher in towns in which residential neighborhoods are divided by physical barriers such as rivers and railroads.
- Gergő Tóth
- , Johannes Wachs
- & Balázs Lengyel
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Article
| Open AccessUnder-reporting of greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. cities
Many cities in the US self-report greenhouse gas emissions. Here, the authors find that US cities under-report their own greenhouse gas emissions, on average, by 18.3% because city inventories omit some fuels and source types and estimate transportation emissions differently.
- Kevin Robert Gurney
- , Jianming Liang
- & Thomas Lauvaux
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Article
| Open AccessLow-carbon pathways for the booming express delivery sector in China
Online shopping deliveries are booming, but the environmental cost is not always accounted. Here, the authors examine the impact of delivery services in China from 2007 to 2018 and find that Greenhouse gas emissions surged from 0.3 Mt in 2007 to 13.7 Mt of CO2-equivalent in 2018, they predict that emissions could reach 75 MtCO2e by 2035 if no mitigation measures are adopted.
- Peng Kang
- , Guanghan Song
- & Huabo Duan
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Article
| Open AccessChina’s plastic import ban increases prospects of environmental impact mitigation of plastic waste trade flow worldwide
China announced a ban on its import of most plastic waste in 2017, resulting in an impact on global environmental sustainability. Here the authors quantify the environmental impacts of changes in the flow patterns and treatment methods of 6 types of plastic waste in 18 countries subsequent to the ban.
- Zongguo Wen
- , Yiling Xie
- & Christian Doh Dinga
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Article
| Open AccessEmergency deployment of direct air capture as a response to the climate crisis
Governments may struggle to impose costly polices on vital industries, resulting in a greater need for negative emissions. Here, the authors model a direct air capture crash deployment program, finding it can remove 2.3 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2050, 13–20 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2075, and 570–840 GtCO2 cumulative over 2025–2100.
- Ryan Hanna
- , Ahmed Abdulla
- & David G. Victor
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Article
| Open AccessImportant contributions of non-fossil fuel nitrogen oxides emissions
This study investigates in the importance of non-fossil fuel NOx emissions in the surface-earth-nitrogen cycle. The study shows how changes of regional human activities directly influence δ15N signatures of deposited NOx to terrestrial environments and that emissions have largely been underestimated.
- Wei Song
- , Xue-Yan Liu
- & Cong-Qiang Liu
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Article
| Open AccessExposure to natural hazard events unassociated with policy change for improved disaster risk reduction
Whether disasters spur policy change remains contested. Here, the authors utilize a dataset of 10,976 natural hazard events and multiple disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy indicators across 85 countries over eight years to show that frequency and severity factors are unassociated with improved DRR policy.
- Daniel Nohrstedt
- , Maurizio Mazzoleni
- & Giuliano Di Baldassarre
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Article
| Open AccessOvercoming gender inequality for climate resilient development
Gender inequality increases vulnerability to climate change impacts and reduces societies’ adaptive capacity. Here the authors show how gender inequality may evolve in the future in five scenarios of socioeconomic development and highlight the importance of incorporating gender inequality in climate change research and policy.
- Marina Andrijevic
- , Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
- & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
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Article
| Open AccessA social engineering model for poverty alleviation
Current inequality and market consumption modelling appears to be subjective. Here the authors combined all three axes of poverty modelling - Engel-Krishnakumar’s microeconomics, Aoki-Chattopadhyay’s mathematical precept and found that multivariate construction is a key component of economic data analysis, implying all modes of income and expenditure need to be considered to arrive at a proper weighted prediction of poverty.
- Amit K. Chattopadhyay
- , T. Krishna Kumar
- & Iain Rice
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Comment
| Open AccessBuilding resilient Arctic science amid the COVID-19 pandemic
Arctic research faces unprecedented disruptions due to COVID-19. This ‘pause’ gives an opportunity to reflect on the current state and the future of Arctic science and move towards a more resilient, thus equitable, coordinated, safe and locally-embedded Arctic research enterprise. Arctic science has been greatly affected by COVID-19. This comment looks forward to how Arctic science could be conducted in the future.
- Andrey N. Petrov
- , Larry D. Hinzman
- & Alona Yefimenko