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| Open AccessFault zone heterogeneities explain depth-dependent pattern and evolution of slow earthquakes in Cascadia
Here, the authors combine the geological and seismological constraints of the Cascadia Subduction Zone and develop a 3D rate and state friction model. By considering depth-dependent variations of differential pore pressure following a simple linear profile, the model reproduces the full spectrum of the observed ETS complexity.
- Yingdi Luo
- & Zhen Liu
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Article
| Open AccessUniversal resilience patterns in labor markets
Recent technological, social, and educational changes are profoundly impacting our work, but what makes labour markets resilient to those labour shocks? Here, the authors show that labour markets resemble ecological systems whose resilience depends critically on the network of skill similarities between different jobs.
- Esteban Moro
- , Morgan R. Frank
- & Iyad Rahwan
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Article
| Open AccessReversed evolution of grazer resistance to cyanobacteria
Anthropogenic changes, such as eutrophication from lake pollution, can lead to rapid evolution. Comparing Daphnia resurrected from generations adapted to historical pollution to contemporary, post-cleanup populations finds that Daphnia rapidly reversed their evolved resistance to harmful cyanobacteria.
- Jana Isanta-Navarro
- , Nelson G. Hairston Jr
- & Dominik Martin-Creuzburg
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| Open AccessRecent global decrease in the inner-core rain rate of tropical cyclones
How the rainfall intensity of tropical cyclones changes with climate change is not well known. Here, the authors show that while the rain rate in the outer region of TCs is clearly increasing between 1999 and 2018, it decreases significantly in the inner-core of TCs during 1999-2018.
- Shifei Tu
- , Jianjun Xu
- & Long S. Chiu
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Article
| Open AccessBomb 137Cs in modern honey reveals a regional soil control on pollutant cycling by plants
Radioactive 137Cs is a fission product remaining in the environment from mid-20th century nuclear testing. Here the authors show that vegetation thousands of kilometers from testing sites continues to cycle 137Cs, and consequently, bees magnify this contaminant in honey in regions with low soil potassium.
- J. M. Kaste
- , P. Volante
- & A. J. Elmore
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Article
| Open AccessFormation of large low shear velocity provinces through the decomposition of oxidized mantle
Dense Fe3+-rich bridgmanite can explain the seismic features of Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces, as it can form large-scale thermochemical piles in the deep mantle that remain stable throughout Earth’s history.
- Wenzhong Wang
- , Jiachao Liu
- & Zhongqing Wu
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Article
| Open AccessEvaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world
The impacts of water scarcity depend on physical basin characteristics and global economic dynamics. Here, the authors show scenario assumptions can yield either highly positive or negative economic impacts due to water scarcity, and the drivers of these impacts are basin-specific and cannot be determined a priori.
- Flannery Dolan
- , Jonathan Lamontagne
- & Jae Edmonds
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Article
| Open AccessMeasuring inequality in community resilience to natural disasters using large-scale mobility data
Understanding how cities respond to extreme weather is critical; as such events are becoming more frequent. Using anonymized mobile phone data for Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the authors find that mobility behavior exposes neighborhood disparities in resilience capacity and recovery.
- Boyeong Hong
- , Bartosz J. Bonczak
- & Constantine E. Kontokosta
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Article
| Open AccessVegetation feedback causes delayed ecosystem response to East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall during the Holocene
How the East Asian Summer Monsoon has changed over the Holocene has been debated, as some proxy records disagree with each other. Here, the authors suggest that monsoonal rainfall peaked in the early Holocene, while ecosystem responses peaked in the mid-Holocene, explaining the differences between records.
- Jun Cheng
- , Haibin Wu
- & Yaoming Song
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Article
| Open AccessCommon Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast
Sea-level rise is an important part of climate change, but most sea-level budgets are global and cannot capture important regional changes. Here the authors estimate sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast, finding a faster rate of rise during the 20th century than any time in the past 2000 years.
- Jennifer S. Walker
- , Robert E. Kopp
- & Benjamin P. Horton
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased autumn and winter precipitation during the Last Glacial Maximum in the European Alps
What controlled changes of glaciers in the European Alps at the time of their largest extent, about 25,000 years ago, is not well known. Here, the authors use cryogenic carbonates in caves to show that heavy snowfall during autumn and early winter was the main source of glacier growth.
- C. Spötl
- , G. Koltai
- & H. Cheng
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Article
| Open AccessNetwork community structure of substorms using SuperMAG magnetometers
During geomagnetic substorms, the energy accumulated from solar wind is abruptly transported to ionosphere. Here, the authors show application of community detection on the time-varying networks constructed from all magnetometers collaborating with the SuperMAG initiative.
- L. Orr
- , S. C. Chapman
- & W. Guo
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Article
| Open AccessIsotopic evidence for the formation of the Moon in a canonical giant impact
Here, the authors show that Earth and Moon are characterized by different vanadium isotope compositions, which is most likely resulting from vanadium isotope fractionation of the bulk silicate proto-Earth during the main stage of terrestrial core formation—followed by a canonical giant impact scenario, where 80% of the Moon originates from an impactor of chondritic composition.
- Sune G. Nielsen
- , David V. Bekaert
- & Maureen Auro
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Article
| Open AccessENSO modulates wildfire activity in China
Fire activity in China and its associations with climate are not well quantified at a local scale. Here, the authors present a detailed fire occurrence dataset for China and find a dipole fire pattern between southwestern and southeastern China that is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
- Keyan Fang
- , Qichao Yao
- & Valerie Trouet
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Article
| Open AccessBasalt derived from highly refractory mantle sources during early Izu-Bonin-Mariana arc development
Magmatism associated with early growth of subduction zones is unlike that of mature island arc systems. Here, the authors find basalts with distinct mineralogical and geochemical characteristics were erupted during this early stage, and derived from extremely refractory, hot mantle sources.
- He Li
- , Richard J. Arculus
- & Weidong Sun
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Article
| Open AccessChemical feedbacks during magma degassing control chlorine partitioning and metal extraction in volcanic arcs
Chlorine behaviour during complex, polybaric arc magma degassing is poorly understood. Here, the authors show that chemical feedbacks during coeval magma differentiation and degassing account for the Cl record at both volcanoes and ore deposits, and quantify the role of Cl in efficient copper extraction during degassing.
- B. Tattitch
- , C. Chelle-Michou
- & R. R. Loucks
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Article
| Open AccessSubstantial decrease in CO2 emissions from Chinese inland waters due to global change
Inland waters emit greenhouse gases, but robust estimations are hampered by a dearth of spatio-temporally resolved measurements. Here the authors present annual fluxes of CO2 from Chinese inland waters over the past several decades, showing that emission fluxes have significantly declined since the 80s.
- Lishan Ran
- , David E. Butman
- & Shaoda Liu
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Article
| Open AccessLarge carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change
This study uses regional and global remote sensing data to assess the regrowth of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon biome. The authors find differences of regrowth rates due to climate, forest fires and deforestation actions and further quantify their carbon capture potential.
- Viola H. A. Heinrich
- , Ricardo Dalagnol
- & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
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Article
| Open AccessPhotolytic radical persistence due to anoxia in viscous aerosol particles
Sunlight can change the composition of atmospheric aerosol particles, but the mechanisms through which this happens are not well known. Here, the authors show that fast radical reaction and slow diffusion near viscous organic particle surfaces can cause oxygen depletion, radical trapping and humidity dependent oxidation.
- Peter A. Alpert
- , Jing Dou
- & Markus Ammann
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Article
| Open AccessLocal and global trace plutonium contributions in fast breeder legacy soils
This study proposes a method to differentiate between local plutonium-based contamination in soils versus trace plutonium stemming from global dispersion in the past, such as fallout from detonation and atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons.
- Chris Tighe
- , Maxi Castrillejo
- & Malcolm J. Joyce
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| Open AccessReversal of carbonate-silicate cation exchange in cold slabs in Earth’s lower mantle
CaCO3 is more stable than MgCO3 under conditions of Earth’s lowermost mantle, with implications for deep mantle chemistry.
- Mingda Lv
- , Susannah M. Dorfman
- & Vitali B. Prakapenka
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| Open AccessImagining and constraining ferrovolcanic eruptions and landscapes through large-scale experiments
Ferrovolcanism is a hypothetical form of planetary volcanism in which the erupted lava is metallic in composition. Here we show that ferrovolcanic lava is denser and less viscous than silicate lava, resulting in fast-moving, thin, braided flows.
- A. Soldati
- , J. A. Farrell
- & J. A. Karson
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| Open AccessProspective contributions of biomass pyrolysis to China’s 2050 carbon reduction and renewable energy goals
BIPP with biochar sequestration is a ready-to-implement negative emission technology in China. Here, the authors show that its national deployment could contribute to a 61% reduction of carbon emissions per GDP in 2030 compared to 2005, and contribute 13–31% of the global biomass-based negative emission goal by 2050.
- Qing Yang
- , Hewen Zhou
- & Michael B. McElroy
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| Open AccessA plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China
A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here, the authors detail how to structure a high-ambition, plant-by-plant coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs.
- Ryna Yiyun Cui
- , Nathan Hultman
- & Mengye Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessThe Hindu Kush slab break-off as revealed by deep structure and crustal deformation
Here, the authors document active slab break-off and the crustal response during continental collision under the Hindu Kush, a rarely observed process since it happens over geologically short time spans.
- Sofia-Katerina Kufner
- , Najibullah Kakar
- & Bernd Schurr
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| Open AccessSeasonal overturn and stratification changes drive deep-water warming in one of Earth’s largest lakes
This study presents hourly data from a thermistor string in Lake Michigan, inspecting its response at depth to surface warming. Based on the data, the study suggests bottom lake temperatures respond to changes in turnover and re-stratification, with the ultimate possibility of the lake shifting from dimictic to monomictic.
- Eric J. Anderson
- , Craig A. Stow
- & Nathan Hawley
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Article
| Open AccessLightning strikes as a major facilitator of prebiotic phosphorus reduction on early Earth
Determining the origins of life on Earth is confounded by the fact that the sources of nutrients necessary to create early life forms remain mysterious. Here the authors show that lightning strikes could have supplied a major source of essential phosphorus on early Earth.
- Benjamin L. Hess
- , Sandra Piazolo
- & Jason Harvey
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| Open AccessGround deformation reveals the scale-invariant conduit dynamics driving explosive basaltic eruptions
Here, the authors use 20 years of ground deformation data from Stromboli and correlate this data with eruptive records. They find that duration and amplitude of the inflation trend scales with eruption magnitude, indicating that explosive dynamics obeys the same (scale-invariant) conduit process.
- M. Ripepe
- , G. Lacanna
- & D. Delle Donne
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| Open AccessImpacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments
Temperature changes as a result of climate change are expected to impact electric capacity and investment. Here, the authors show that in the United States under socioeconomic pathway 2 and RCP 8.5 mean temperature rises will drive increased electricity demand (0.5-8%) by 2100, along increases in capital investments by 3-22%.
- Zarrar Khan
- , Gokul Iyer
- & Marshall Wise
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| Open AccessImpact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Here, the authors show that improved representation of summer equatorial Atlantic variability and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific, relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO.
- Eleftheria Exarchou
- , Pablo Ortega
- & Chloé Prodhomme
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Article
| Open AccessAnatomy of subcritical submarine flows with a lutocline and an intermediate destruction layer
This study investigates the underlying physical mechanisms of turbidity currents travelling thousands of miles in confined submarine settings, rather than diffusing after short distance. Using high resolution simulations with up to a billion grid points helps to understand the evolving layered structure of a current.
- Jorge S. Salinas
- , S. Balachandar
- & M. I. Cantero
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Article
| Open AccessWarming from tropical deforestation reduces worker productivity in rural communities
It is expected that tropical deforestation and related increases in heat exposure have negative impacts on labour productivity, but the size of the effect is not well known. Here, the authors show that deforestation reduces productivity by 8.22% in rural Indonesia and causes behavioural adaptation responses like more work breaks.
- Yuta J. Masuda
- , Teevrat Garg
- & June T. Spector
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to “Catch rate composition affects assessment of protected area impacts”
- John Lynham
- , Anton Nikolaev
- & Juan Carlos Villaseñor-Derbez
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessCatch rate composition affects assessment of protected area impacts
- Jonathan R. Sweeney
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Article
| Open AccessCaribbean plate tilted and actively dragged eastwards by low-viscosity asthenospheric flow
Here, the authors follow a new approach using analytic solutions for Poiseuille-Couette channel flow to compute asthenospheric viscosities under the Caribbean. Active asthenospheric flow observed under the Caribbean contradicts the traditional view that the asthenosphere is only a passive lubricating layer for Earth’s tectonic plates.
- Yi-Wei Chen
- , Lorenzo Colli
- & Hejun Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessA source of isotopically light organic carbon in a low-pH anoxic marine zone
Anoxic marine zones are expanding and intensifying with climate change. Here the authors show that microbial dark carbon fixation influences the carbonate system and the stable isotope composition in waters off Chile, contributing up to 35% of the organic carbon reaching the mesopelagic region.
- Cristian A. Vargas
- , Sebastian I. Cantarero
- & Joe Salisbury
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Comment
| Open AccessSeeding the idea of encapsulating a representative synthetic metagenome in a single yeast cell
Synthetic metagenomics could potentially unravel the complexities of microbial ecosystems by revealing the simplicity of microbial communities captured in a single cell. Conceptionally, a yeast cell carrying a representative synthetic metagenome could uncover the complexity of multi-species interactions, illustrated here with wine ferments.
- Ignacio Belda
- , Thomas C. Williams
- & Isak S. Pretorius
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| Open AccessMalaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming
The effect of climate change on highland malaria transmission remains unclear because of increasing and decreasing trends. Here, Rodó et al. analyze malaria case data and climate data for the Ethiopian highlands from 1968 to 2008 and find that changes in temperature and associated climate variability facilitated the effect of interventions at the beginning of the 21st century.
- Xavier Rodó
- , Pamela P. Martinez
- & Mercedes Pascual
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Article
| Open AccessConstraining maximum event magnitude during injection-triggered seismicity
Recently triggered seismic events such as the Pohang earthquake have exceeded predictions of average energy releases by a factor of 1000. A new framework is proposed to define maximum event magnitudes as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume.
- Ziyan Li
- , Derek Elsworth
- & M. W. McClure
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Article
| Open AccessAcceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern
The fastest sea-ice decline has been observed in the western Arctic, but the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Here, the authors show that the Pacific North American pattern plays an important role in western Arctic sea-ice variability.
- Zhongfang Liu
- , Camille Risi
- & Gabriel J. Bowen
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Article
| Open AccessRecovery of logged forest fragments in a human-modified tropical landscape during the 2015-16 El Niño
It is unclear whether tropical forest fragments within plantation landscapes are resilient to drought. Here the authors analyse LiDAR and ground-based data from the 2015-16 El Niño event across a logging intensity gradient in Borneo. Although regenerating forests continued to grow, canopy height near oil palm plantations decreased, and a strong edge effect extended up to at least 300 m away.
- Matheus Henrique Nunes
- , Tommaso Jucker
- & David A. Coomes
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Article
| Open AccessEvolution of the locomotor skeleton in Anolis lizards reflects the interplay between ecological opportunity and phylogenetic inertia
Both ecological opportunity and phenotypic modularity have been suggested to facilitate adaptive radiations. Feiner et al. show that Anolis lizards evolved a new modularity structure in their island adaptive radiation, but that this modularity did not produce the same extreme diversification when Anolis returned to the mainland.
- Nathalie Feiner
- , Illiam S. C. Jackson
- & Tobias Uller
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Article
| Open AccessTropical cyclone exposure is associated with increased hospitalization rates in older adults
Tropical cyclones can cause severe damage and can thus have devastating impacts on societies. Here, the authors use Medicare data to show that tropical cyclone exposure in the United States is associated with increased hospitalization rates for older adults from many different acute causes.
- Robbie M. Parks
- , G. Brooke Anderson
- & Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou
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Article
| Open AccessIrrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change
The authors here model how water stress would be affected either by biomass plantations combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in a strong climate mitigation scenario (1.5 °C warming in 2100) or by climate impacts in a strong climate change scenario (3 °C warming in 2100).
- Fabian Stenzel
- , Peter Greve
- & Dieter Gerten
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Article
| Open AccessAntarctic Peninsula warm winters influenced by Tasman Sea temperatures
The Antarctic Peninsula sees some of the strongest warming of the whole continent over the last decades, the drivers of which are not well known. Here, the authors show that winter sea surface temperature increases in the Tasman sea lead to changes in Southern Ocean storm tracks that in turn warm the Antarctic Peninsula.
- Kazutoshi Sato
- , Jun Inoue
- & Irina Rudeva
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Article
| Open AccessExtrusion of subducted crust explains the emplacement of far-travelled ophiolites
The interplay between continental subduction exhumation dynamics and the obduction of ophiolite sheets remains enigmatic. Here, the authors show that the extrusion of the subducted continental upper crust triggers the necking and breaking of the oceanic upper plate and leads to far-travelled ophiolite sheet emplacement.
- Kristóf Porkoláb
- , Thibault Duretz
- & Ernst Willingshofer
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Article
| Open AccessMean sea surface temperature changes influence ENSO-related precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes
El Niño-driven precipitation profoundly affects the mid-latitudes, but how this impact changes in the future is uncertain. Here, the authors show that changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures causes an increase in rainfall linked to El Niño events of about 20% over East Asia and North America.
- Young-Min Yang
- , Jae-Heung Park
- & Xiao Luo
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| Open AccessContrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest
Warming in the US Midwest is believed to increase the water needed to grow crops. This study finds that, on the contrary, due to rising rainfall and minimum temperature, and decreasing maximum temperature, potential crop water demand remains unchanged despite the warming climate.
- Bruno Basso
- , Rafael A. Martinez-Feria
- & Joe T. Ritchie
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| Open AccessThe stability of subducted glaucophane with the Earth’s secular cooling
Along the cold subduction geotherm, glaucophane remains stable down to pressure and temperature (P–T) conditions of ca. 240 km depth, whereas under the warm subduction geotherm, it dehydrates and breaks down into pyroxenes and silica between ca. 50 and 100 km depths.
- Yoonah Bang
- , Huijeong Hwang
- & Yongjae Lee