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Article
| Open AccessDrought may exacerbate dryland soil inorganic carbon loss under warming climate conditions
Drought is shown to enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil inorganic carbon dissolution but to weaken that of soil organic carbon decomposition, indicating that drought may exacerbate dryland soil carbon loss from inorganic carbon under warming.
- Jinquan Li
- , Junmin Pei
- & Ming Nie
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Article
| Open AccessOxide nanolitisation-induced melt iron extraction causes viscosity jumps and enhanced explosivity in silicic magma
Oxide nanolites crystallisation in natural magma increases melt, and hence bulk magma viscosity mainly due to iron extraction. This increase can be sufficient to drive magma fragmentation depending on magma degassing and ascent dynamics.
- Francisco Cáceres
- , Kai-Uwe Hess
- & Donald B. Dingwell
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Article
| Open AccessMarkets as drivers of selection for highly virulent poultry pathogens
Live poultry markets in rural areas can be hotspots for transmission of pathogens, but the effects of markets on selection of viral virulence are not known. This study demonstrates through mathematical modelling that high turnover rate and persistence of viral particles can select for highly virulent pathogens in markets.
- Justin K. Sheen
- , Fidisoa Rasambainarivo
- & C. Jessica E. Metcalf
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Article
| Open AccessModelling six sustainable development transformations in Australia and their accelerators, impediments, enablers, and interlinkages
Global research has identified six critical transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Here, Allen et al model all six transformations in a national context and discuss implications for accelerating progress on the goals.
- Cameron Allen
- , Annabel Biddulph
- & Shirin Malekpour
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Article
| Open AccessThermal responses of dissolved organic matter under global change
The response of organic molecules to climate change is linked to warming, nutrient loading, and greenhouse gas emissions, according to an indicator developed to quantify the aggregated thermal response of individual organic molecules.
- Ang Hu
- , Kyoung-Soon Jang
- & Jianjun Wang
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Article
| Open AccessEfficient biological carbon export to the mesopelagic ocean induced by submesoscale fronts
Submesoscale processes are ubiquitous in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. The authors show that carbon export efficiency is significantly strengthened under the influence of these episodic features by using high-frequency BGC-Argo observations.
- Mingxian Guo
- , Xiaogang Xing
- & Fei Chai
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Article
| Open AccessAn environmental justice analysis of air pollution emissions in the United States from 1970 to 2010
Here the authors find socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in county-level air pollution emissions reductions in the 40 years following the Clean Air Act (1970-2010) in the USA, particularly in emissions from energy generation and industry.
- Yanelli Nunez
- , Jaime Benavides
- & Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou
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Article
| Open AccessAn artificial intelligence-based model for optimal conjunctive operation of surface and groundwater resources
Towards optimizing the conjunctive operation of surface and groundwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions, here the authors propose a hybrid method involving moth-swarm and symbiotic organism search algorithms and artificial neural networks and demonstrate it for the HalīlRood basin.
- Saeid Akbarifard
- , Mohamad Reza Madadi
- & Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani
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Article
| Open AccessHigh Salinity Shelf Water production rates in Terra Nova Bay, Ross Sea from high-resolution salinity observations
Antarctic Bottom Water ventilates the deep ocean, but studies of its source regions are limited due to scarce observations. Miller et al. leverage mooring data to quantify the production rate of a key constituent water mass produced in the Ross Sea.
- Una Kim Miller
- , Christopher J. Zappa
- & Won Sang Lee
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Article
| Open AccessAcceleration of the ocean warming from 1961 to 2022 unveiled by large-ensemble reanalyses
The authors used a state-of-the-science ensemble ocean reconstruction to analyze ocean heat content evolution over the last 62 years, focusing on the analysis of warming acceleration and the main sources of its uncertainty.
- Andrea Storto
- & Chunxue Yang
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Article
| Open AccessNanoscale silicate melt textures determine volcanic ash surface chemistry
Nanotexture-sensitive fracture focusing during magma fragmentation determines the surface chemistry of volcanic ash particles, thereby modifying the reactive interface and subsequent environmental impacts
- Adrian J. Hornby
- , Paul M. Ayris
- & Donald B. Dingwell
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal transboundary synergies and trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals from an integrated sustainability perspective
Domestic attempts to advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in a country can have synergistic and/or trade-off effects on the advancement of SDGs in other countries. Here the authors demonstrate that while high-income countries make up only 14% of the global population, they drive over 60% of worldwide SDG interactions.
- Huijuan Xiao
- , Sheng Bao
- & Jianguo Liu
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Article
| Open AccessAccurate nowcasting of cloud cover at solar photovoltaic plants using geostationary satellite images
Accurate nowcasting of cloud cover or fraction and its movement remains a significant challenge for stable solar photovoltaic electricity generation. Here, the authors combine continuous radiance images with high spatio-temporal resolutions to develop a nowcasting algorithm for predicting cloud cover at a leading time of 0–4 h.
- Pan Xia
- , Lu Zhang
- & Shengjie Jia
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Article
| Open AccessMethane-hydrogen-rich fluid migration may trigger seismic failure in subduction zones at forearc depths
This study provides evidence for the migration of deep energy sources along tectonic discontinuities in subduction zones and suggests causal relationships with brittle failure of hard rocks that may trigger seismic activity.
- Francesco Giuntoli
- , Luca Menegon
- & Alberto Vitale Brovarone
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Article
| Open AccessSignificantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population
The authors disentangle uncertainty in rainfall projections, revealing regions where multiple global climate models agree on future drying and wetting patterns with implications for one to two thirds of the world’s population.
- Ralph Trancoso
- , Jozef Syktus
- & Robin Chadwick
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Article
| Open AccessA global analysis of how human infrastructure squeezes sandy coasts
In a first global analysis, researchers find that sandy shores are severely squeezed between human infrastructure and the rising sea, as on average, the first road or building is currently situated at just 390 meters distance from the shoreline.
- Eva M. Lansu
- , Valérie C. Reijers
- & Tjisse van der Heide
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Article
| Open AccessClimate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse
Climate change is redistributing species poleward, threatening widespread socio-ecological disruption as key tipping-points are exceeded. This study examines space-time dynamics of kelp ecosystem collapse over a 15-year period along the warming coastline of eastern Tasmania and shows that an early-warning signal of kelp ecosystem collapse is recognisable well-in-advance.
- Scott D. Ling
- & John P. Keane
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Article
| Open AccessManaging urban development could halve nitrogen pollution in China
Here the authors demonstrate how managed urbanization in China could halve reactive nitrogen pollution to both the atmosphere and water resources. Investing 61 billion USD could provide 245 billion USD in benefits, while contributing to multiple SDG goals.
- Ouping Deng
- , Sitong Wang
- & Baojing Gu
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Article
| Open AccessMagnetosheath jets at Jupiter and across the solar system
Jets have been found in Earth’s magnetosheath for two decades and, more recently, also in Mars. Yet, their universal existence in planetary magnetosheath remains an open question. Here, authors report the presence of anti-sunward and sunward jets at Jupiter and compare them to Earth and Mars.
- Yufei Zhou
- , Savvas Raptis
- & Lan Ma
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Article
| Open AccessVESPA: an optimized protocol for accurate metabarcoding-based characterization of vertebrate eukaryotic endosymbiont and parasite assemblages
DNA sequencing methods for characterizing microbial communities are well developed for bacteria, archaea and fungi, but less so for eukaryotic parasites and commensals. Here, the authors present an optimized and validated metabarcoding protocol for host-associated eukaryotic communities.
- Leah A. Owens
- , Sagan Friant
- & Tony L. Goldberg
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Article
| Open AccessKnowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems
Existing models to estimate agroecosystem C cycle have large uncertainties. Here, the authors propose a knowledge-guided machine learning framework that improves C cycle quantification in agroecosystems by integrating process-based and machine learning models, and multi-source high-resolution data.
- Licheng Liu
- , Wang Zhou
- & Zhenong Jin
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Article
| Open AccessMicrobially mediated mechanisms underlie soil carbon accrual by conservation agriculture under decade-long warming
Agricultural soil C dynamics under climate change are difficult to predict. Here, the authors report that experimental warming increases soil organic C stocks in conservation agriculture but not in conventional agriculture, which appears driven by soil microbial responses to no tillage and C inputs from the crops.
- Jing Tian
- , Jennifer A. J. Dungait
- & Jizhong Zhou
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Perspective
| Open AccessRemotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales
Climate change could drive critical parts of the Earth system past tipping points, causing large-scale, abrupt and/or irreversible changes that harm societies. Here, the authors suggest that satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in helping manage these profound risks, by providing improved early warning of tipping points across scales.
- Timothy M. Lenton
- , Jesse F. Abrams
- & Niklas Boers
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Article
| Open AccessProduction-induced seismicity indicates a low risk of strong earthquakes in the Groningen gas field
Authors develop an approach to distinguish between induced and triggered tectonic earthquakes. Seismicity at the Groningen gas field is solely induced. The probabilities to trigger tectonic earthquakes indicate the inherent stability of the field.
- Nepomuk Boitz
- , Cornelius Langenbruch
- & Serge A. Shapiro
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Article
| Open AccessIncreasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau
The weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific monsoon trough. This weakening is partly driven by warming in the Tibetan Plateau.
- Jing Xu
- , Ping Zhao
- & Lu Liu
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Article
| Open AccessInforming disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure using scenario-based recovery analyses
Post-disaster education continuity is a significant global challenge. The study demonstrates that scenario-based recovery analyses can help quantify the impact of disaster management policies on post-disaster education continuity in low-income countries.
- Eyitayo A. Opabola
- & Carmine Galasso
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Article
| Open AccessSevere 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas
Biodiversity in established or proposed Antarctic Marine Protected Areas is threatened by climate change. The authors show that projected ocean acidification is severe in Antarctic coastal waters due to strong vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon.
- Cara Nissen
- , Nicole S. Lovenduski
- & Judith Hauck
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Article
| Open AccessA stratospheric precursor of East Asian summer droughts and floods
Summer floods and droughts show a north-south dipole in East Asia centered near 30°N. Here, the authors show that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation plays an important role in this dipole and its prediction.
- Ruhua Zhang
- , Wen Zhou
- & Jiali Luo
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Editorial
| Open AccessFeeding the future global population
Climate change is exacerbating challenges both for global food production and from its environmental impacts. Sustainable and socially responsible solutions for future world-wide food security are urgently needed.
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves
Ocean waves caused by tropical cyclones show a significant global increase of energy and area over the last 44 years, leading to critical emerging wave hazard.
- Jian Shi
- , Xiangbo Feng
- & Jinhai Zheng
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Article
| Open AccessDiversifying crop rotation increases food production, reduces net greenhouse gas emissions and improves soil health
Food production systems need to balance yield and sustainability. Here, the authors conduct 6 years long crop diversification field experiments in the North China Plain, showing that diversifying cereal monocultures with cash crops and legumes cand improve yield and reduce GHG emissions.
- Xiaolin Yang
- , Jinran Xiong
- & Klaus Butterbach-Bahl
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Article
| Open AccessHigher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States
This paper assesses future changes in flood magnitude across the conterminous United States based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results suggest that annual maximum peak discharge is projected to become more extreme under higher emission scenarios.
- Hanbeen Kim
- & Gabriele Villarini
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Article
| Open AccessAfrican bushpigs exhibit porous species boundaries and appeared in Madagascar concurrently with human arrival
The evolutionary history of pigs in Africa is unclear. Here, the authors examine 67 whole genomes, finding incomplete speciation between bushpigs and red river hogs as well as evidence suggesting that humans brought bushpigs to Madagascar 1000-5000 years ago.
- Renzo F. Balboa
- , Laura D. Bertola
- & Rasmus Heller
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia generate circumglobal Rossby waves that contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown by suppressing heat loss in the Labrador Sea.
- Fukai Liu
- , Xun Li
- & Lei Zhou
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Article
| Open AccessLand management shapes drought responses of dominant soil microbial taxa across grasslands
Soil microbial communities are affected by climate extremes. Here, the authors impose experimental drought across 30 UK grasslands showing that bacteria and fungi exhibit drought resistance but that intensive management has a negative impact on fungi drought resilience.
- J. M. Lavallee
- , M. Chomel
- & R. D. Bardgett
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Article
| Open AccessWaste milk humification product can be used as a slow release nano-fertilizer
The growth in global milk demand has been accompanied by an increase in waste milk disposal. Here, the authors transform waste milk through humification and incorporate the product into attapulgite creating a nano-fertiliser that benefits for plants growing in pots.
- Yanping Zhu
- , Yuxuan Cao
- & Dongqing Cai
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Article
| Open AccessFlood exposure and pregnancy loss in 33 developing countries
Flooding impacts billions globally and indirect health effects are not sufficiently examined, especially for women in developing countries. Here, the authors show that flood exposure during pregnancy correlates with a higher risk of pregnancy loss, particularly for marginalized women, revealing increased health disparities in a changing climate.
- Cheng He
- , Yixiang Zhu
- & Haidong Kan
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Article
| Open AccessThe impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China
Heat extremes occur more frequently with global warming. Here the authors show that short-term heat extremes play a critical role in shaping long-term dynamics of lake surface temperature, contributing 36.5% of the warming trends in Chinese lakes.
- Weijia Wang
- , Kun Shi
- & R. Iestyn Woolway
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Article
| Open AccessDisentangling microbial networks across pelagic zones in the tropical and subtropical global ocean
This study investigates the dynamic associations among microbes in the world’s tropical and subtropical oceans. It reveals that potential interactions vary with ocean depth and location, with most surface associations not persisting in deeper waters. The results contribute to understanding the ocean microbiome in the context of global change.
- Ina M. Deutschmann
- , Erwan Delage
- & Ramiro Logares
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Article
| Open AccessRobust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming
In this paper, the authors reveal a robust weakening of the subtropical atmospheric circulation across CMIP6 models driven by global-mean surface warming, which is partially offset by the direct CO2 effect.
- Shijie Zhou
- , Ping Huang
- & Peng Hu
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Article
| Open AccessChange of deep subduction seismicity after a large megathrust earthquake
In this study, the authors analyze the spatio-temporal variations of the seismicity in Japan due to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. They show that a megathrust earthquake can affect the stress state of the slab over large lateral and depth ranges.
- Blandine Gardonio
- , David Marsan
- & Alexandre Schubnel
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Article
| Open AccessProjected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models
Large uncertainties remain in Earth system models in predicting soil carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, the authors constrained projected soil carbon changes in ESMs using observation-derived data, and found that global soil will become a carbon source under future warming.
- Shuai Ren
- , Tao Wang
- & Shilong Piao
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Article
| Open AccessUniversal microbial reworking of dissolved organic matter along environmental gradients
Soils combat climate change by storing carbon but lose considerable amounts of carbon into downstream waters. Here a general process for how microbes transform carbon across soil-to-stream to impact its persistence in the natural environment is demonstrated.
- Erika C. Freeman
- , Erik J. S. Emilson
- & Andrew J. Tanentzap
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Article
| Open AccessMore than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change
Tree species may be vulnerable to multiple global change factors. Here, the authors find that more than 17 thousand tree species are exposed to increasing anthropogenic threats, including many species classified as data-deficient in the IUCN Red List.
- Coline C. F. Boonman
- , Josep M. Serra-Diaz
- & Jens-Christian Svenning
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Article
| Open AccessSpin polarized Fe1−Ti pairs for highly efficient electroreduction nitrate to ammonia
Electrochemical nitrate reduction to ammonia offers an attractive solution to environmental sustainability and clean energy production. Here, the authors construct spin−polarized Fe1−Ti pairs via manipulating oxygen vacancies on monolithic titanium electrode for highly efficient nitrate to ammonia conversion.
- Jie Dai
- , Yawen Tong
- & Lizhi Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessThe blue carbon of southern southwest Atlantic salt marshes and their biotic and abiotic drivers
This study provides a comprehensive characterization of blue C for South American Atlantic salt marshes and reveals that environmental and biological variables are important for an understanding of blue C storage leading to lower global estimates.
- Paulina Martinetto
- , Juan Alberti
- & Raymond Ward
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessReply to: Sea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- Jennifer R. Shadrick
- , Dylan H. Rood
- & Martin D. Hurst
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessSea-level rise may not uniformly accelerate cliff erosion rates
- M. E. Dickson
- , H. Matsumoto
- & A. P. Young
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Article
| Open AccessThe potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts
Zuiderveen and colleagues find that emerging bio-based products have on average 45% lower greenhouse gas life cycle emissions compared to their fossil counterparts, yet, there is a large variation between individual bio-based products with none of them reaching netzero emissions.
- Emma A. R. Zuiderveen
- , Koen J. J. Kuipers
- & Mark A. J. Huijbregts