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| Open AccessFacilitating adoption of AI in natural disaster management through collaboration
Artificial intelligence can enhance our ability to manage natural disasters. However, understanding and addressing its limitations is required to realize its benefits. Here, we argue that interdisciplinary, multistakeholder, and international collaboration is needed for developing standards that facilitate its implementation.
- Monique M. Kuglitsch
- , Ivanka Pelivan
- & Elena Xoplaki
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Article
| Open AccessCOVID-19, Green Deal and recovery plan permanently change emissions and prices in EU ETS Phase IV
This paper finds that the EU’s 2030 reduction target of -55% might correspond to EU ETS allowance prices between 45 and 94 e/ton CO2 today, while the invalidation rule reduces carbon emissions to 14.2 to 18.3 GtCO2 over the EU ETS’ remaining lifetime.
- Kenneth Bruninx
- & Marten Ovaere
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Article
| Open AccessPossibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions
A strong decrease or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would cool down the northern high latitudes. This study reveals the possibility that such cooling could be amplified under deliberate CO2 removal from the atmosphere.
- Jörg Schwinger
- , Ali Asaadi
- & Hanna Lee
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| Open AccessAir quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
Understanding benefits of carbon mitigation is an important impetus for governments to adopt more ambitious climate targets. Here, the authors show positive air quality and health co-benefits are possible if China’s CO2 emissions peak before 2030.
- Rong Tang
- , Jing Zhao
- & Haikun Wang
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Article
| Open AccessConsistent cooling benefits of silvopasture in the tropics
A new study shows that tropical silvopasture systems can provide significant cooling services for local communities, and identifies where these silvopasture systems can most effectively counteract global climate change to help communities adapt to warming.
- Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello
- , Susan C. Cook-Patton
- & Yuta J. Masuda
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| Open AccessVegetation-based climate mitigation in a warmer and greener World
Vegetation changes have been suggested as a climate mitigation option, but the numerous feedbacks between vegetation and climate are not well understood. Here, the authors show that greening leads to surface cooling in many areas, but the size of the effect depends on the background climate.
- Ramdane Alkama
- , Giovanni Forzieri
- & Alessandro Cescatti
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| Open AccessDecarbonising the iron and steel sector for a 2 °C target using inherent waste streams
The iron and steel industry is emissions intensive. Here the authors explore its decarbonisation potential based on recovering energy and recycling materials from waste streams in 2020-2050. 28.5% of CO2 emissions under sectoral 2 °C target requirements can be reduced in a high-potential pathway.
- Yongqi Sun
- , Sicong Tian
- & Zuotai Zhang
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| Open AccessAssessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework
China’s transition path toward carbon neutrality remains uncertain. Here the authors combine Monte Carlo analysis with an energy-environment-economy model to present a probabilistic view of China’s energy transition across 3,000 cases.
- Shu Zhang
- & Wenying Chen
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal cooling induced by biophysical effects of bioenergy crop cultivation
Bioenergy crops has been proposed as a climate mitigation measure, but how the biophysical effects of large-scale cultivation would influence the climate is not well known. Here, the authors use models to show that large-scale cultivation could cool the global land by 0.03 to 0.08 °C.
- Jingmeng Wang
- , Wei Li
- & Olivier Boucher
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Article
| Open AccessPricing indirect emissions accelerates low—carbon transition of US light vehicle sector
New research shows how large–scale adoption of electric vehicles due to expected technological change may not only reduce emissions from tailpipes, but also indirect emissions stemming from energy and battery production.
- Paul Wolfram
- , Stephanie Weber
- & Edgar G. Hertwich
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Article
| Open AccessBreaking down barriers on PV trade will facilitate global carbon mitigation
Global trade of solar photovoltaic (PV) products has an important role to play in sustainable mitigation to climate change. Highlighting global PV product trade, this study explores the impeding effect of tariff and non-tariff barriers on global PV product trade and carbon emissions reductions.
- Mudan Wang
- , Xianqiang Mao
- & Eric Zusman
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| Open AccessThe role of urban trees in reducing land surface temperatures in European cities
Urban trees influence temperatures in cities. The authors here investigate in spatio-temporal variations in their cooling effect and find 8-12 K decreased temperatures for tree-rich urban areas in Central Europe during hot summers, and up to 4 K for Southern Europe, respectively.
- Jonas Schwaab
- , Ronny Meier
- & Edouard L. Davin
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Article
| Open AccessDelaying carbon dioxide removal in the European Union puts climate targets at risk
The implications of delaying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are poorly understood. Here the authors highlight the potential extra costs and reduced removal potential of delayed CDR action, with a special focus on direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (DACCS and BECCS).
- Ángel Galán-Martín
- , Daniel Vázquez
- & Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
Comprehensive policy measures are needed to close the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and emissions goals of the Paris Agreement. Here the authors present a Bridge scenario that may aid in closing the emissions gap by 2030.
- Heleen L. van Soest
- , Lara Aleluia Reis
- & Detlef P. van Vuuren
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| Open AccessDeep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures
Stabilizing climate change requires simultaneous mitigation of all greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Here the authors examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways to demonstrate the contributions of different GHGs towards 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals.
- Yang Ou
- , Christopher Roney
- & Haewon McJeon
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| Open AccessAssessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China
Plum rain may reduce photovoltaic potential due to lowered surface irradiance (SI). Here the authors note lowered SI in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin by up to 20% due to rains, which, coupled with a large number of deployed PV systems, can cause incremental CO2 emissions of local power systems.
- Guangsheng Pan
- , Qinran Hu
- & Yuping Lu
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| Open AccessGeophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide
Solar and wind resources are dependent on geophysical constraints. Here the authors find that solar and wind power resources can satisfy countries’ electricity demand of between 72–91% of hours, but hundreds of hours of unmet demand may occur annually.
- Dan Tong
- , David J. Farnham
- & Steven J. Davis
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| Open AccessGlobal greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060
Building construction causes large material-related emissions which present a serious decarbonization challenge. Here, the authors show that the building material sector could halve emissions by increasing efficiency until 2060 but even then its emissions would be twice as high as needed to meet the 1.5 °C target.
- Xiaoyang Zhong
- , Mingming Hu
- & Paul Behrens
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Article
| Open AccessEnergy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions
Despite global initiatives to reach net-zero CO2 emissions, the tradeoffs of energy systems to reach that goal remain understudied. Here the authors analyze all net-zero scenarios used for the 2018 IPCC report and quantify the role of renewable energy, fuels, and emissions in attaining a zero CO2 world.
- Julianne DeAngelo
- , Inês Azevedo
- & Steven J. Davis
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| Open AccessEconomic disparity among generations under the Paris Agreement
The intergenerational distribution of costs and benefits of climate change mitigation is not well understood. Here the authors analyze lifetime costs and benefits of climate change mitigation by age cohorts across countries under the Paris Agreement.
- Haozhe Yang
- & Sangwon Suh
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| Open AccessGlobal scenarios of resource and emission savings from material efficiency in residential buildings and cars
Material production accounts for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. Here, the authors show that resource efficiency and circular-economy strategies can allow for cumulative emission reductions of 20–52 Gt CO2-eq from residential buildings and 13–26 Gt CO2e-eq from cars by 2050.
- Stefan Pauliuk
- , Niko Heeren
- & Edgar G. Hertwich
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Matters Arising
| Open AccessResponse to: Problems and promises of savanna fire regime change
- Geoffrey J. Lipsett-Moore
- , Nicholas H. Wolff
- & Edward T. Game
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| Open AccessClosing the methane gap in US oil and natural gas production emissions inventories
Methane emissions from oil and gas systems are underestimated in official inventories. Here the authors synthesize thousands of field measurements and develop an inventory-based model for a better understanding of why this underestimation exists and how it can be fixed.
- Jeffrey S. Rutherford
- , Evan D. Sherwin
- & Adam R. Brandt
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| Open AccessRevealing the widespread potential of forests to increase low level cloud cover
Forests can influence climate by affecting low cloud formation, but where and when this occurs is not well known. Here, the authors provide a global-scale assessment, based on satellite remote sensing observations, suggesting afforestation mostly increases low cloud cover which could potentially cool surface temperatures.
- Gregory Duveiller
- , Federico Filipponi
- & Alessandro Cescatti
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| Open AccessCommercial afforestation can deliver effective climate change mitigation under multiple decarbonisation pathways
Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial (harvested) forestry is disputed. Here the authors apply dynamic life cycle assessment to show that new commercial conifer forests can achieve up to 269% more GHG mitigation than semi-natural forests, over 100 years.
- Eilidh J. Forster
- , John R. Healey
- & David Styles
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| Open AccessEvaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Aviation contributes to climate change and ways to reduce its emissions are widely debated. Here, the authors assess the effects of technology improvements and the use of sustainable aviation fuels and find that even when these are considered aviation is unlikely to meet emissions goals in line with the Paris Agreement.
- Volker Grewe
- , Arvind Gangoli Rao
- & Katrin Dahlmann
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| Open AccessImpact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization of the electric power sector
Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air can influence power sector planning and operations. Here the authors show how carbon removal options lower costs of deep decarbonization and alter electric sector investments.
- John E. T. Bistline
- & Geoffrey J. Blanford
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Article
| Open AccessPersistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies
Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies have generated conflicting assessments; as social welfare is affected by regional heterogeneity. Here the authors show that economically optimal pathways are consistent with climate stabilization but are characterized by persistent economic inequalities due to climate damages.
- Paolo Gazzotti
- , Johannes Emmerling
- & Massimo Tavoni
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| Open AccessInvestment incentive reduced by climate damages can be restored by optimal policy
Climate change is likely to damage economies worldwide. Here the authors show that this strongly reduces incentives to invest causing additional losses, whereas if investors include climate-change mitigation in their action portfolio they can avoid damages for themselves and the global economy.
- Sven N. Willner
- , Nicole Glanemann
- & Anders Levermann
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Article
| Open AccessSpatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China
China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Here the authors find a promising option to abate 1.0 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 of carbon emissions at a marginal cost of $69 (t CO2-eq)−1 by retrofitting 222 GW of coal power plants to co-fire with biomass and upgrading to CCS operation across 2836 counties in China.
- Xiaofan Xing
- , Rong Wang
- & Siqing Xu
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Article
| Open AccessA well-timed shift from local to global agreements accelerates climate change mitigation
Do we mitigate climate change in a Kyoto style global agreement or via multiple agreements among smaller groups of states? Here the authors show that the best strategy may begin with regional legally binding, aggressive agreements and, as these become common, renew pursuit of a global legally-binding treaty.
- Vadim A. Karatayev
- , Vítor V. Vasconcelos
- & Madhur Anand
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| Open AccessJoint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions
The production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) was phased-out under the Montreal, but renewed emissions of CFC-11 have been reported recently. Here, the authors present a joint analysis of multiple factors and find that emissions of CFC-11, but also CFC-12 and CFC-113 are higher than expected, indicating renewed emissions.
- Megan Lickley
- , Sarah Fletcher
- & Susan Solomon
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated
Quantifying land use change is critical in tackling global challenges related to food, climate and biodiversity. Here the authors show that land use change has affected 32 % of the global land area in six decades (1960- 2019) by combining multiple open datasets to create the HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment +.
- Karina Winkler
- , Richard Fuchs
- & Martin Herold
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Article
| Open Access1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
Established climate mitigation modelling relies on controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, but neglects to consider degrowth scenarios. Here the authors show that degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability and thus need to be thoroughly assessed.
- Lorenz T. Keyßer
- & Manfred Lenzen
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Article
| Open AccessCombining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
Ambitious climate policies can negatively impact the global poor by affecting income, food and energy prices. Here, the authors quantify this effect, and show that it can be compensated by national redistribution of the carbon pricing revenues in combination with international climate finance.
- Bjoern Soergel
- , Elmar Kriegler
- & Alexander Popp
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Article
| Open AccessAlternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
Many trajectories for reaching climate change mitigation targets exaggerate the long-term need for CO2 removal (CDR) because they assume an exponentially increasing carbon price. Here the authors analyse alternative carbon price pathways that halt warming while limiting CDR, and may be easier to implement.
- Jessica Strefler
- , Elmar Kriegler
- & Ottmar Edenhofer
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Article
| Open AccessNet-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement
Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions targets. Here, the authors show that a country’s potential for negative emissions and methodological issues affect when countries can reach net-zero, calling for clear internationally agreed definitions and accounting methods.
- Heleen L. van Soest
- , Michel G. J. den Elzen
- & Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Article
| Open AccessPolicy assessments for the carbon emission flows and sustainability of Bitcoin blockchain operation in China
The growing energy consumption and carbon emissions of Bitcoin mining could potentially undermine global sustainability efforts. Here, the authors show the annual energy consumption of the Bitcoin blockchain in China is expected to peak in 2024 at 296.59 Twh and generate 130.50 million metric tons of carbon emissions.
- Shangrong Jiang
- , Yuze Li
- & Shouyang Wang
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Article
| Open AccessLarge carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change
This study uses regional and global remote sensing data to assess the regrowth of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon biome. The authors find differences of regrowth rates due to climate, forest fires and deforestation actions and further quantify their carbon capture potential.
- Viola H. A. Heinrich
- , Ricardo Dalagnol
- & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
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Article
| Open AccessProspective contributions of biomass pyrolysis to China’s 2050 carbon reduction and renewable energy goals
BIPP with biochar sequestration is a ready-to-implement negative emission technology in China. Here, the authors show that its national deployment could contribute to a 61% reduction of carbon emissions per GDP in 2030 compared to 2005, and contribute 13–31% of the global biomass-based negative emission goal by 2050.
- Qing Yang
- , Hewen Zhou
- & Michael B. McElroy
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Article
| Open AccessA plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China
A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here, the authors detail how to structure a high-ambition, plant-by-plant coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs.
- Ryna Yiyun Cui
- , Nathan Hultman
- & Mengye Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessIrrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change
The authors here model how water stress would be affected either by biomass plantations combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in a strong climate mitigation scenario (1.5 °C warming in 2100) or by climate impacts in a strong climate change scenario (3 °C warming in 2100).
- Fabian Stenzel
- , Peter Greve
- & Dieter Gerten
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Article
| Open AccessCarbon prospecting in tropical forests for climate change mitigation
Investing in forest protection is a way to generate tradable carbon credits to support biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. Here the authors assess and map the global supply of tropical forest carbon credits with the goal of informing climate policy and investments.
- Lian Pin Koh
- , Yiwen Zeng
- & Kelly Siman
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Article
| Open AccessAnnual aboveground carbon uptake enhancements from assisted gene flow in boreal black spruce forests are not long-lasting
The long-term effectiveness of assisted gene flow of trees could be jeopardised by rapid climate change. Here the authors analyse a large dataset of relocated black spruce populations in Canada, finding that local adaptation to climate of origin improved NPP responses, but only for up to ~15 years after planting.
- Martin P. Girardin
- , Nathalie Isabel
- & Patrick Lenz
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Article
| Open AccessUnder-reporting of greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. cities
Many cities in the US self-report greenhouse gas emissions. Here, the authors find that US cities under-report their own greenhouse gas emissions, on average, by 18.3% because city inventories omit some fuels and source types and estimate transportation emissions differently.
- Kevin Robert Gurney
- , Jianming Liang
- & Thomas Lauvaux
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Article
| Open AccessGreater fuel efficiency is potentially preferable to reducing NOx emissions for aviation’s climate impacts
The regulation of aircraft engine NOx emissions was introduced to improve local air quality and reduce NOx emissions at altitude. Here, the authors find that greater fuel efficiency of aircrafts, and therefore lower CO2 emissions, could be preferable to reducing NOx emissions in terms of the aviation industries future climate impacts.
- Agnieszka Skowron
- , David S. Lee
- & Bethan Owen
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Article
| Open AccessEmergency deployment of direct air capture as a response to the climate crisis
Governments may struggle to impose costly polices on vital industries, resulting in a greater need for negative emissions. Here, the authors model a direct air capture crash deployment program, finding it can remove 2.3 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2050, 13–20 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2075, and 570–840 GtCO2 cumulative over 2025–2100.
- Ryan Hanna
- , Ahmed Abdulla
- & David G. Victor
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Article
| Open AccessA framework to predict the price of energy for the end-users with applications to monetary and energy policies
Global energy transformation requires quantifying the "price of energy" and studying its evolution. Here the authors present a predictive framework that calculates the average US price of energy, estimating future energy demands for up to four years with excellent accuracy, designing and optimizing energy and monetary policies.
- Stefanos G. Baratsas
- , Alexander M. Niziolek
- & Efstratios N. Pistikopoulos
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Article
| Open AccessThe economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation remain uncertain. Here the authors show the global forest sector could reduce emissions by 6.0 GtCO2 yr−1 in 2055, or roughly 10% of the mitigation needed to limit warming to 1.5 °C by mid-century, at a cost of 393 billion USD yr−1, or $281/tCO2.
- K. G. Austin
- , J. S. Baker
- & A. Bean