Climate-change ecology articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    It is unclear whether rapid climate change will alter the effectiveness of marine reserves. Here Graham et al. use a 20-year time-series from the Seychelles to show that marine reserves may not prevent climate-driven shifts in community composition, and that ecological responses to reserves are substantially altered.

    • Nicholas A. J. Graham
    • , James P. W. Robinson
    •  & Shaun K. Wilson

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Rice paddies are a major source of the Earth’s atmospheric methane, making these important food crops potent contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Here the authors show that inoculation of paddies with a particular bacterium could significantly curb methane production.

    • Vincent V. Scholz
    • , Rainer U. Meckenstock
    •  & Nils Risgaard-Petersen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In recent history the amount of carbon captured by terrestrial systems has increased, but the processes driving this process has remained poorly constrained. Here the authors use a global carbon model to show that a decrease in wildfires has caused the land carbon sink to increase in the past few decades.

    • Yi Yin
    • , A. Anthony Bloom
    •  & David Schimel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Global environmental changes threaten many food-producing sectors, including aquaculture. Here the authors show that countries most vulnerable to climate change will probably face the highest antimicrobial resistance in aquaculture-related bacteria, and that infected aquatic animals have higher mortality at warmer temperatures.

    • Miriam Reverter
    • , Samira Sarter
    •  & Rodolphe E. Gozlan

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Drained peatlands are sources of CO2, and though rewetting could curb emissions, this strategy results in elevated methane release. Here, the authors model peatland emissions scenarios and show that rewetting is a critical way to mitigate climate change despite potential methane increases.

    • Anke Günther
    • , Alexandra Barthelmes
    •  & John Couwenberg

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Understanding whether intraspecific trait variation results from local adaptation or phenotypic plasticity is crucial to predict species responses to climate change. Here the authors investigate geographically distinct burying beetle populations, showing that photoperiodism is a locally adapted, not phenotypically plastic, trait.

    • Hsiang-Yu Tsai
    • , Dustin R. Rubenstein
    •  & Sheng-Feng Shen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Plants are thought to be limited by phosphorus (P) especially in tropical regions. Here, Hou et al. report a meta-analysis of P fertilization experiments to show widespread P limitation on plant growth across terrestrial ecosystems modulated by climate, ecosystem properties, and fertilization regimes

    • Enqing Hou
    • , Yiqi Luo
    •  & Dazhi Wen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The role of paddy rice agriculture in the spatial and temporal dynamics of atmospheric methane concentration remains unclear. Here, Zhang et al. show that regions with dense rice paddies have high satellite-based column averaged CH4 concentrations (XCH4), and that seasonal dynamics of XCH4 mirror those of paddy rice growth.

    • Geli Zhang
    • , Xiangming Xiao
    •  & Berrien Moore III

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Resilience to drought is crucial for tree survival under climate change. Here, DeSoto et al. show that trees that died during drought were less resilient to previous dry events compared to surviving conspecifics, but the resilience strategies differ between angiosperms and gymnosperms.

    • Lucía DeSoto
    • , Maxime Cailleret
    •  & Jordi Martínez-Vilalta

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Forest management may play an important role in climate change mitigation. Here, Tong et al. combine remote sensing and machine learning modelling to map forest cover dynamics in southern China during 2002–2017, showing effects on carbon sequestration that are extensive but of uncertain longevity and possible negative impact on soil water.

    • Xiaowei Tong
    • , Martin Brandt
    •  & Rasmus Fensholt

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Reductions in seawater pH are affecting marine ecosystems globally. Here, the authors describe phenotypic and genetic modifications associated with rapid adaptation to reduced seawater pH in the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, and suggest that standing variation within natural populations plays an important role in bolstering species’ adaptive capacity to global change.

    • M. C. Bitter
    • , L. Kapsenberg
    •  & C. A. Pfister

  • Article
    | Open Access

    It remains challenging to estimate carbon accumulation rates in tidal wetlands on a scale as large as the conterminous US. Here, the authors find that mean C accumulation rates vary greatly among watershed regions but not among vegetation types, and that tidal wetlands’ C sequestration capability will remain or increase by 2100, suggesting a resilience to sea level rise.

    • Faming Wang
    • , Xiaoliang Lu
    •  & Jianwu Tang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Climate-induced poleward shifts in plant distributions could flatten latitudinal diversity gradients. However, here the authors show that the spread of forests after the last ice age reduced diversity in central and northern Europe, and that human land-use over the past 5000 years strengthened the latitudinal gradient in plant diversity.

    • Thomas Giesecke
    • , Steffen Wolters
    •  & Simon Brewer

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The authors assemble and analyse previously generated mycobiome data linked to geographical locations across the world. They describe the distribution of fungal taxa and show that climate is an important driver of fungal biogeography and that fungal diversity appears to be concentrated at high latitudes.

    • Tomáš Větrovský
    • , Petr Kohout
    •  & Petr Baldrian

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Warmer temperatures could increase the growth and metabolic rates of microbes. Here, the authors assemble a dataset of thermal performance curves for over 400 bacteria and archaea, showing that metabolic rates are likely to increase under warming, with implications for global carbon cycling.

    • Thomas P. Smith
    • , Thomas J. H. Thomas
    •  & Samrāt Pawar

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Many species’ life cycles have moved earlier in the year because of climate change, but we do not know the consequences for range expansions. The authors show that these advances promote range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year, but not in species with only one.

    • Callum J. Macgregor
    • , Chris D. Thomas
    •  & Jane K. Hill

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Protected areas are important refugia for wildlife, so if climate conditions within them change, wildlife could lose critical suitable habitat. Here the authors calculate the projected gain and loss of climate conditions within terrestrial protected areas worldwide.

    • Samuel Hoffmann
    • , Severin D. H. Irl
    •  & Carl Beierkuhnlein

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The capacity to predict zoonotic disease outbreaks is hampered by data availability and complex relationships between humans, wildlife, and the environment. Here the authors present a modelling framework that identifies potential high-risk locations for Ebola outbreaks under various climatic, demographic, and land use scenarios.

    • David W. Redding
    • , Peter M. Atkinson
    •  & Kate E. Jones

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Predictions of coral reef dynamics under climate change are hindered by lack of long-term records. Here the authors couple historical and re-survey data from the Great Barrier Reef to show major phase-shifts in the coral and non-coral community over the last 90 years.

    • Maoz Fine
    • , Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
    •  & Sophie Dove

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Drought is intensifying due to climate change, impacting forests globally. Here, the authors track nearly 2 million trees through severe drought and show that tree height is the greatest predictor of mortality risk, suggesting that the tallest trees may be the most vulnerable.

    • Atticus E. L. Stovall
    • , Herman Shugart
    •  & Xi Yang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Mismatches between the pace of climate change and plant responses may lead to delayed upslope shifts or extinction of mountain species. Here the authors investigate 135 alpine plant species, finding that extinction debts are more common among cold-adapted plants and colonization credits among warm-adapted plants.

    • Sabine B. Rumpf
    • , Karl Hülber
    •  & Stefan Dullinger

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Predicted responses to climate change may be informed by evolutionary history. Here, the authors reconstruct the phylogeny of lacertid lizards and investigate how the evolution of this clade has varied with paleoclimates and how closely adapted extant species are to modern climates.

    • Joan Garcia-Porta
    • , Iker Irisarri
    •  & Katharina C. Wollenberg Valero

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Ocean acidification is expected to have a negative impact on calcifying organisms, however, our understanding of the acclimation potential of corals in their natural habit is currently limited. Here, the authors find that scleractinian corals living in high pCO2 conditions cannot fully adapt the chemistry of their internal calcifying fluid compared to corals growing in ambient conditions.

    • M. Wall
    • , J. Fietzke
    •  & A. Paytan

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Genetic adaptation and physiological acclimation can potentially buffer species against climate change. Here, the authors perform a long-term warming experiment of Antarctic encrusting communities and show that focal animal species failed to acclimate and lacked genetic variation in tolerance to warming.

    • Melody S. Clark
    • , Leyre Villota Nieva
    •  & Lloyd S. Peck

  • Article
    | Open Access

    It is unclear whether species’ responses to climate change tend to be adaptive or sufficient to keep up with climate change. Here, Radchuk et al. perform a meta-analysis showing that in birds phenology has advanced adaptively in some species, though not all the way to the new optima.

    • Viktoriia Radchuk
    • , Thomas Reed
    •  & Stephanie Kramer-Schadt

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Most passerine bird species replace part of their plumage within the first year of life. Here, using data from 4,012 individuals of 19 species, Kiat et al. find that the extent of post-juvenile moult has increased over the past 212 years and this correlated with the global temperature increase in this period.

    • Y. Kiat
    • , Y. Vortman
    •  & N. Sapir

  • Article
    | Open Access

    A global warming hiatus occurred during 1998 and 2012 but its effects on phenology are unclear. Here the authors examine the trends in spring and autumn phenology in the northern hemisphere and the effects of the warming hiatus and show that phenology change rate in the northern hemisphere slowed down during the warming hiatus.

    • Xufeng Wang
    • , Jingfeng Xiao
    •  & Rachhpal S. Jassal

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Multiple aspects of anthropogenic change threaten coral reefs. Here, the authors show that bleaching associated with thermal stress was low when local dredging released moderate amounts of suspended sediments, but high sediment loads coupled with high temperatures had synergistic negative effects on coral survival.

    • Rebecca Fisher
    • , Pia Bessell-Browne
    •  & Ross Jones

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Fertilization under greenhouse warming conditions is expected to accelerate tree growth and potentially increase the biological storage of CO2. Here the authors analyse ring width measurements from 1768 conifers from the Spanish and Russian mountains and demonstrate that longevity requires slow growth rates at least in mountainous regions.

    • Ulf Büntgen
    • , Paul J. Krusic
    •  & Christian Körner

  • Article
    | Open Access

    For phenotypic plasticity to evolve to a changing world, there must be variation in plasticity. Here, the authors show that whether great tits advance or delay breeding in response to perceived predation risk depends on their personality, linking variation in plasticity with that in personality.

    • Robin N. Abbey-Lee
    •  & Niels J. Dingemanse

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Extreme climate events can cause population crashes and may threaten population persistence. Here, the authors model reindeer population dynamics and find that more frequent extremely icy winters can actually reduce extinction risk due to density dependence and a demographic shift to resilient ages.

    • Brage B. Hansen
    • , Marlène Gamelon
    •  & Vidar Grøtan

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Attaining global biodiversity projections requires the use of various species distribution and climate modelling and scenario approaches. Here the authors report that model choice can significantly impact results, with particularly uncertainty arising from choice of species distribution model and emission scenario.

    • Wilfried Thuiller
    • , Maya Guéguen
    •  & Niklaus E. Zimmermann

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Given the potential for increasingly common and intense tropical storms, it is important to understand their effects on island forest communities. Here, the authors show that Hurricane María’s strength and rainfall had larger effects on tree mortality than other less severe storms, and that large trees and species with low-density wood were most susceptible.

    • María Uriarte
    • , Jill Thompson
    •  & Jess K. Zimmerman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Coral bleaching is generally linked to higher sea temperatures, but there may be geographic variation in this effect. Here, in a synthesis of global coral bleaching data, the authors show that bleaching probability is highest at mid-latitude sites despite equivalent thermal stress at equatorial sites.

    • S. Sully
    • , D. E. Burkepile
    •  & R. van Woesik

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Separating anthropogenic and climatic impacts on forest compositions can be challenging due to a lack of data. Here the authors look at forest compositional changes in eastern Canada since the 19th century and find land use has most strongly shaped communities towards disturbance-adapted species.

    • Victor Danneyrolles
    • , Sébastien Dupuis
    •  & Dominique Arseneault

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Understanding the role of forest fires in Earth’s climate system is critical to predict future fire-climate interactions. Here the authors show that fire-induced forest loss accounts for ~15% of global forest loss and that its impact on surface temperature depends on evapotranspiration and albedo.

    • Zhihua Liu
    • , Ashley P. Ballantyne
    •  & L. Annie Cooper

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Increased extreme wet and dry years and forest growth loss from drought legacy effect lead to a question whether wetness events can conversely compensate for this loss. Here the authors report substantial growth enhancement after extreme wetness compensating for drought-induced growth loss globally.

    • Peng Jiang
    • , Hongyan Liu
    •  & Hongya Wang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Increases in tree mortality can signal changes in forest health, but large-scale tree mortality is difficult to quantify. Here Senf et al. show large-scale increases in forest mortality in Central Europe over the past 30 years, which were related to increasing growing stocks and temperature.

    • Cornelius Senf
    • , Dirk Pflugmacher
    •  & Rupert Seidl

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Animal physiology, including reproduction, could respond to climate change in complex ways. Here, the authors use experiments with an insect model system to show that simulated heatwaves harm male reproductive potential by reducing sperm number and viability, an effect which persisted into the next generation

    • Kris Sales
    • , Ramakrishnan Vasudeva
    •  & Matthew J. G. Gage

  • Article
    | Open Access

    East Asia contains “relict” plant species that persist under narrow climatic conditions after once having wider distributions. Here, using distribution records coupled with ecological niche models, the authors identify long-term stable refugia possessing past, current and future climatic suitability favoring ancient plant lineages.

    • Cindy Q. Tang
    • , Tetsuya Matsui
    •  & Jordi López-Pujol

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Amphibians have seen large population declines, but the key drivers are hard to establish. Here, Miller et al. investigate trends of occupancy for 81 species of amphibians across North America and find greater sensitivity to water availability during breeding and winter conditions than mean climate.

    • David A. W. Miller
    • , Evan H. Campbell Grant
    •  & Brent H. Sigafus

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The productivity of boreal forests in Eastern North America is predicted to increase with warming under sufficient moisture supply. Here D’Orangeville et al. study seven tree species and predict that growth enhancements may be seen up to 2 °C warming, but would decline if temperatures exceed this.

    • Loïc D’Orangeville
    • , Daniel Houle
    •  & Daniel Kneeshaw

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Degradation—the loss of carbon stored in intact woodland—is very difficult to measure over large areas. Here, the authors show that carbon emissions from degradation in African woodlands greatly exceed those from deforestation, but are happening alongside widespread increases in biomass in remote areas.

    • Iain M. McNicol
    • , Casey M. Ryan
    •  & Edward T. A. Mitchard

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Drought conditions can alter the composition of soil microbial communities, but the effects of drought on network properties have not been tested. Here, de Vries and colleagues show that co-occurrence networks are destabilised under drought for bacteria but not fungi.

    • Franciska T. de Vries
    • , Rob I. Griffiths
    •  & Richard D. Bardgett

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