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Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions
While present in palaeoclimate records, the drivers behind 20-year climate variability are poorly understood. Here, using climate simulations and in situand palaeo data, the authors present a possible link between volcanic eruptions, Great Salinity Anomalies and the Atlantic overturning circulation.
- Didier Swingedouw
- , Pablo Ortega
- & Roland Séférian
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A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America
Tornadoes are one of nature’s most hazardous phenomena, yet prognostic tools for tornado occurrence are lacking. Here, the authors use Bayesian inference techniques to evaluate the spatiotemporal relationship between atmospheric variables and tornado activity in North America.
- Vincent Y.S. Cheng
- , George B. Arhonditsis
- & Heather Auld
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Article
| Open AccessTropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature
The rainfall rate of tropical cyclones is expected to increase under a warmer climate, yet likely changes in rainfall area remain unknown. Here, the authors combine satellite data and model simulations and show that rainfall area is dependent on relative sea surface temperatures.
- Yanluan Lin
- , Ming Zhao
- & Minghua Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessReconciling spatial and temporal soil moisture effects on afternoon rainfall
The sign of soil moisture–precipitation feedback has been strongly debated. Here, the authors show that rain tends to fall where soils are drier than their surroundings, but on days with overall wet and heterogeneous conditions, explaining the apparent contradictions between recent studies.
- Benoit P. Guillod
- , Boris Orlowsky
- & Sonia I. Seneviratne
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Article
| Open AccessNorth Atlantic storm track changes during the Last Glacial Maximum recorded by Alpine speleothems
Insights into Late-Pleistocene Northern Hemisphere storm track variability are hampered by a lack of well-dated proxy records. Here, the authors present a precisely dated record of meteoric precipitation between 30 and 14.7 ka, and show that obliquity may have played a vital role in Alpine glacier advance.
- Marc Luetscher
- , R. Boch
- & W. Müller
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Article
| Open AccessWeak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms
Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall is associated with the most intense storms, yet this relationship remains untested. Here, Hamada et al. analyse 11 years of radar observations from the topics and subtropics, and conclude that the heaviest rainfall is most commonly associated with less intense convection.
- Atsushi Hamada
- , Yukari N. Takayabu
- & Edward J. Zipser
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Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall
Rainfall in the Sahel region has a decadal variability related to tropical sea-surface temperatures; however, models disagree regarding future changes in rainfall. Here the authors suggest that differential warming in the northern hemisphere is key to understanding this discrepancy.
- Jong-Yeon Park
- , Jürgen Bader
- & Daniela Matei
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Article
| Open AccessSize dependence of phase transitions in aerosol nanoparticles
Although phase transitions are fundamental for understanding aerosol particles, current models are insufficient to explain observations at the nanoscale. Here, the authors present a method for investigating droplets, suggesting particle size is a key determinant in the phase diagram of nanoparticles.
- Yafang Cheng
- , Hang Su
- & Ulrich Pöschl
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Aerosol generation by raindrop impact on soil
Suspended dust and sea salt are currently considered to be two major sources of environmental aerosol particles. Here, Joung and Buie report another mechanism of aerosol generation from rainfall impact on porous soil surfaces, whereby elements can be delivered to the air.
- Young Soo Joung
- & Cullen R. Buie
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Article
| Open AccessPermafrost thawing as a possible source of abrupt carbon release at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød
Ice core records show evidence for an abrupt, and thus far unexplained, increase in atmospheric CO2 levels ~14,600 years ago. Here, the authors combine ice core data, a precisely dated decline in atmospheric 14C and numerical simulations, and propose thawing permafrost as a possible source of this event.
- Peter Köhler
- , Gregor Knorr
- & Edouard Bard
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Review Article |
Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation
Carbon mitigation is considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization, but competition for land is high. Here, Canadell and Schulze consider the sustainable implementation of a number of land-based biological carbon mitigation activities and assess the carbon savings achievable by 2050.
- Josep G. Canadell
- & E. Detlef Schulze
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| Open AccessExtending medium-range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe
Extreme winter flooding has caused devastation across Europe in recent years, highlighting the need for improved forecasts. Here, the authors show that the use of water vapour transport, rather than precipitation in weather prediction models, can extend the forecast horizon by as much as 3 days.
- David A. Lavers
- , Florian Pappenberger
- & Ervin Zsoter
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Orbital Asian summer monsoon dynamics revealed using an isotope-enabled global climate model
Asian speleothem δ18O records are widely used as a proxy for summer monsoon intensity, but their validity has been questioned. Here, the authors evaluate their validity using a 150,000-year transient simulation from an isotope-enabled global climate model.
- Thibaut Caley
- , Didier M. Roche
- & Hans Renssen
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Article
| Open AccessMissing driver in the Sun–Earth connection from energetic electron precipitation impacts mesospheric ozone
Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) from the Earth's outer radiation belt can lead to ozone loss in the mesosphere, yet long-term variability has not been quantified. Here, the authors present satellite observations and show that on solar cycle timescales EEP causes ozone to vary by up to 34%.
- M. E. Andersson
- , P. T. Verronen
- & A. Seppälä
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Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach
Extreme rainfall events in the eastern Central Andes can result in substantial economic and ecological damage, yet their prediction is difficult. Here, the authors introduce the concept of network divergence and propose a general framework for the prediction of extreme events.
- N. Boers
- , B. Bookhagen
- & J. A. Marengo
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Long-term carbon loss in fragmented Neotropical forests
Tropical forest deforestation is a major source of CO2emissions, yet potential additional emissions through the creation of forest edge areas has been largely overlooked. Here, the authors combine remote sensing and knowledge on spatial processes to estimate carbon loss due to forest fragmentation.
- Sandro Pütz
- , Jürgen Groeneveld
- & Andreas Huth
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How shorter black carbon lifetime alters its climate effect
Unlike most aerosols, black carbon absorbs solar radiation, potentially warming the atmosphere, yet its total climate effect remains uncertain. Here, the authors use a chemical transport and global circulation model to investigate the impact of black carbon emissions on global, annual mean radiative forcing.
- Øivind Hodnebrog
- , Gunnar Myhre
- & Bjørn H. Samset
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Article |
Persistence of pressure patterns over North America and the North Pacific since AD 1500
Synoptic-scale atmospheric pressure patterns control moisture delivery and thus drought occurrence across western North America, yet long-term records are lacking. Here, the authors use a novel combination of tree-ring data and self-organizing maps to reconstruct and analyse pressure patterns since AD 1500.
- Erika K. Wise
- & Matthew P. Dannenberg
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Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss
The mechanism behind the severely cold winters experienced by the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent years is not fully understood. Here, the authors combine observational analyses and model experiments to reveal a dynamic connection between Arctic sea-ice cover and the polar stratosphere.
- Baek-Min Kim
- , Seok-Woo Son
- & Jin-Ho Yoon
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Article |
Terrestrial selenium distribution in China is potentially linked to monsoonal climate
Selenium deficiency is a major health problem, particularly in the selenium-poor belt in China, yet its distribution in the terrestrial environment is poorly understood. Here, the authors combine geochemical and palaeoclimate data and show that selenium distribution in China may be related to East Asian monsoon rainfall.
- Tim Blazina
- , Youbin Sun
- & Lenny H.E. Winkel
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Natural snowfall reveals large-scale flow structures in the wake of a 2.5-MW wind turbine
Models of turbulent flows are often simulated in the laboratory, in sampling areas with dimensions <1 m. Here, the authors exploit a natural snowstorm to quantify turbulent flows, exploring the complex dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer around a 2.5-MW utility-scale wind turbine.
- Jiarong Hong
- , Mostafa Toloui
- & Fotis Sotiropoulos
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Article |
Two-stroke scooters are a dominant source of air pollution in many cities
Primary and secondary organic aerosols emitted by road vehicles are hazardous to health and climate, with diesel trucks and cars considered the main offenders. Platt et al.show that, despite constituting a small fraction of the fleet, two-stroke scooters can dominate vehicular pollution in some cities.
- S.M. Platt
- , I.El. Haddad
- & A.S.H. Prévôt
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Plasma irregularities in the D-region ionosphere in association with sprite streamer initiation
Sprites are spectacular optical emissions in the mesosphere with an enigmatic filamentary nature. Qin et al.present high-speed video and modelling data revealing sub-millisecond dynamics to reconstruct the structures on a km-scale, showing that pre-existing plasma irregularities are responsible for their initiation.
- Jianqi Qin
- , Victor P. Pasko
- & Hans C. Stenbaek-Nielsen
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Article
| Open AccessMadden–Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer
Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using complex cloud-resolving models has been limited by computational power. Here, Miyakawa et al.run a series of simulations using the newly developed 10 peta-flop ‘K computer’ and demonstrate a Madden–Julian Oscillation predictive window of 27 days.
- Tomoki Miyakawa
- , Masaki Satoh
- & Kunio Yoneyama
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Orbital control of western North America atmospheric circulation and climate over two glacial cycles
A palaeoclimate record from Devils Hole, North America, has long called into question the theory of orbital-scale climate variability. Lachniet et al.present a new, well-dated, speleothem record and reveal evidence for strong orbital forcing of palaeoclimate in this region for at least the past 175 kyrs.
- Matthew S. Lachniet
- , Rhawn F. Denniston
- & Victor J. Polyak
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| Open AccessSiple Dome ice reveals two modes of millennial CO2 change during the last ice age
Whether all rapid climate events during the last ice age impacted the global carbon cycle is not clearly understood. Ahn and Brook present a high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 from Antarctica and suggest that only Greenland stadials associated with massive iceberg discharge influenced atmospheric CO2.
- Jinho Ahn
- & Edward J. Brook
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Paired oxygen isotope records reveal modern North American atmospheric dynamics during the Holocene
The Pacific North American teleconnection strongly influences modern climate in North America, yet long-term variability remains unknown. Liu et al.reconstruct precipitation histories from palaeoisotope proxy records and identify modern atmospheric patterns during the Holocene.
- Zhongfang Liu
- , Kei Yoshimura
- & Fasong Yuan
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Article
| Open AccessThe dynamic surface tension of atmospheric aerosol surfactants reveals new aspects of cloud activation
The formation of cloud droplets from aerosol particles in the atmosphere is difficult to comprehend experimentally and theoretically. Here, the authors measure the dynamic surface tension of atmospheric aerosols and evidence previously overlooked processes, likely to improve this understanding.
- Barbara Nozière
- , Christine Baduel
- & Jean-Luc Jaffrezo
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Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis
Intense aerosol outflows from East Asia have been observed, yet their impact on climate has not been quantified. Wang et al.combine regional mesoscale and global climate models with observations to show that Asian pollution causes large decadal variations in mid-latitude cyclone intensity.
- Yuan Wang
- , Renyi Zhang
- & R. Saravanan
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Persistent 400,000-year variability of Antarctic ice volume and the carbon cycle is revealed throughout the Plio-Pleistocene
The precise contributions of solar forcing, the carbon cycle and glaciation to the pacing of global climate remains unresolved. Using four 3D ice-sheet models, de Boer et al.show that Antarctic ice volume and carbon-cycle dynamics varied coherently during the Pleistocene, as has been observed in the Miocene.
- B. de Boer
- , Lucas J. Lourens
- & Roderik S.W. van de Wal
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Human-induced nitrogen–phosphorus imbalances alter natural and managed ecosystems across the globe
Bioavailable nitrogen is increasing due to human activity, rapidly outpacing increases in another essential nutrient, phosphorous. Peñuelas et al.show that this increasing imbalance between these nutrients is likely to significantly affect life and limit carbon storage in this century.
- Josep Peñuelas
- , Benjamin Poulter
- & Ivan A. Janssens
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Photochemical reflectance index as an indirect estimator of foliar isoprenoid emissions at the ecosystem level
Isoprene and monoterpenes, emitted by terrestrial plants, have an important role in both plant biology and environment, but they are poorly quantified at the ecosystem level. Peñuelas et al.show that the photochemical reflectance index can be used to indirectly estimate foliar isoprenoid emissions remotely.
- Josep Peñuelas
- , Giovanni Marino
- & Iolanda Filella
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| Open AccessMorphology and mixing state of individual freshly emitted wildfire carbonaceous particles
Biomass burning is a major source of carbonaceous particles, including tar balls and soot, that affect earth’s climate. Studying a wildfire plume, this work identifies two types of tar balls and classifies soot according to its mixing state with implications for the calculation of aerosol radiative forcing.
- Swarup China
- , Claudio Mazzoleni
- & Manvendra K. Dubey
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| Open AccessInitialized near-term regional climate change prediction
Near-term climate prediction is an information tool used in climate adaptation services. This study analyses the quality of the predictions, showing that near-term climate forecasts have good skill in predicting temperature at regional scales, where most of the skill is attributed to atmospheric composition changes.
- F. J. Doblas-Reyes
- , I. Andreu-Burillo
- & G. J. van Oldenborgh
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| Open AccessOcean lead at the termination of the Younger Dryas cold spell
The abrupt ending of the Younger Dryas cooling episode marked the onset of the present interglacial and was the most prominent climate change in the Earth’s recent history. This study shows evidence for a sequence of events with a leading role of the ocean at the transition into the present day warm Holocene epoch.
- Christof Pearce
- , Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz
- & Søren M. Kristiansen
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Reconciliation of marine and terrestrial carbon isotope excursions based on changing atmospheric CO2 levels
Carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) measured in marine and terrestrial substrates indicate large-scale changes in the global carbon cycle. Schubert and Jahren show that larger-amplitude CIEs measured in terrestrial substrates reflect increased carbon isotope fractionation by land plants under elevated atmospheric CO2.
- Brian A. Schubert
- & A. Hope Jahren
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased ventilation of Antarctic deep water during the warm mid-Pliocene
It is thought that during the mid-Pliocene warm period the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) must have been stronger than today. Here, using proxy data compilation and simulation, Zhang et al.show that the two observations used to support stronger AMOC may not necessitate its increased strength.
- Zhongshi Zhang
- , Kerim H. Nisancioglu
- & Ulysses S. Ninnemann
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| Open AccessSolar wind entry into the high-latitude terrestrial magnetosphere during geomagnetically quiet times
A full understanding of the penetration of solar wind plasma into the Earth’s magnetosphere, during geomagnetically quiet times, remains elusive. Using multi-spacecraft data, Shi et al.find unexpected entry of the solar wind into the high-latitude magnetosphere and suggest a probable entry mechanism.
- Q.Q. Shi
- , Q.-G. Zong
- & E. Lucek
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Article
| Open AccessOne mechanism contributing to co-variability of the Atlantic inflow branches to the Arctic
The branched inflow of warm Atlantic Water to the Arctic has been known for more than a hundred years, yet what controls the relative strengths of the two pathways remains poorly understood. Here, the authors identify the role of atmospheric circulation over the northern Barents Sea in controlling inflow.
- Vidar S. Lien
- , Frode B. Vikebø
- & Øystein Skagseth
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Article |
Atmospheric phosphorus deposition may cause lakes to revert from phosphorus limitation back to nitrogen limitation
Increased atmospheric input of nitrogen has shifted planktonic lake nutrient systems from natural nitrogen to human-induced phosphorus limitation. This study proposes that decades of increased atmospheric phosphorus in the Pyrenean lake district may have reverted the system from phosphorus back to nitrogen-limited.
- L. Camarero
- & J. Catalan
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| Open AccessTwo centuries of limited variability in subtropical North Atlantic thermocline ventilation
Ocean circulation moves heat and gases between the ocean and atmosphere, impacting the carbon cycle at decadal timescales. Here, a radiocarbon coral record of ocean mixing from Bermuda suggests that the formation of mode water, and thus carbon uptake, have been more stable over the past 200 years than previously thought.
- Nathalie F. Goodkin
- , Ellen R. M. Druffel
- & Scott C. Doney
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Experimental drying intensifies burning and carbon losses in a northern peatland
Peatlands are a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and make up a large soil carbon reservoir. Here, studies of the interaction between drainage and fire show that long-term carbon emissions will likely exceed rates of carbon uptake, reducing the northern peatland carbon sink.
- M.R. Turetsky
- , W.F. Donahue
- & B.W. Benscoter
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Article |
Osmium evidence for synchronicity between a rise in atmospheric oxygen and Palaeoproterozoic deglaciation
The Early Palaeoproterozoic saw glaciations and a rise in atmospheric oxygen, but the link between these two changes is poorly understood. Here, osmium isotope records from sedimentary rocks indicate synchronicity between an episode of increasing oxygen and a glacial transition.
- Yasuhito Sekine
- , Katsuhiko Suzuki
- & Teruyuki Maruoka
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Article |
Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe
The sensitivity of human populations to rising global temperatures is not yet fully understood. The authors describe the link between temperature and daily mortality in over 200 European regions and calculate projections of mortality from climate models under greenhouse gas scenario simulations.
- Joan Ballester
- , Jean-Marie Robine
- & Xavier Rodó
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Article
| Open AccessSouth China Sea hydrological changes and Pacific Walker Circulation variations over the last millennium
Tropical Pacific hydrology affects the global climate through the strength of the Pacific Walker Circulation. Yanet al. reconstruct variations in the Pacific Walker Circulation in the South China Sea over the last millennium and find that less precipitation fell during warmer and more rainfall during cool periods.
- Hong Yan
- , Liguang Sun
- & Wenhan Cheng
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Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin
Assessments of future water availability in South America are uncertain based on multiple coupled general circulation models. Shiogamaet al.identify global-scale metrics for measuring the reliability of water resource assessments, and indicate a higher probability of drying in the Amazon basin.
- Hideo Shiogama
- , Seita Emori
- & Toru Nozawa
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| Open AccessSustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change
The storage in soils of biochar, the product of biomass pyrolysis, has been proposed as an attractive option to mitigate climate change. Amonette and co-workers model the potential impact of biochar and find that it could eliminate more carbon from the atmosphere than using the same biomass for biofuel.
- Dominic Woolf
- , James E. Amonette
- & Stephen Joseph