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| Open AccessInter-annual and decadal changes in teleconnections drive continental-scale synchronization of tree reproduction
Climate oscillations affect weather on different temporal-spatial scales, which poses difficulty in understanding how they influence tree reproduction. Here Ascoli et al. show relationships between low- and high-frequency components of the NAO and masting in two European tree species across multiple decades.
- Davide Ascoli
- , Giorgio Vacchiano
- & Andrew Hacket-Pain
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased ionization supports growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei
Ions produced by cosmic rays have been thought to influence aerosol and cloud processes by an unknown mechanism. Here the authors show that the mass flux of ions to aerosols enhances their growth significantly, with implications for the formation of cloud condensation nuclei.
- H. Svensmark
- , M. B. Enghoff
- & J. Svensmark
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| Open AccessFuture loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall
Persistent atmospheric ridging in the North Pacific steered storms away and led to the California drought of 2012-16. Here the authors use simulations to show that sea-ice changes trigger reorganization of tropical convection resulting in drying over California.
- Ivana Cvijanovic
- , Benjamin D. Santer
- & Susan Zimmerman
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| Open AccessObserved positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks in the Sahel dominated by a moisture recycling mechanism
Vegetation-rainfall feedbacks in the Sahel are thought to be positive, but the precise mechanisms for this are unclear. Here the authors analyse observations to show that a moisture recycling mechanism drives this feedback.
- Yan Yu
- , Michael Notaro
- & Yaxing Wei
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| Open AccessThe role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency
The reason for the decline in frequency of Atlantic major hurricanes since 2005 is still debated. Here the authors combine observations with model simulations to show that this decline is largely due to changes in the Atlantic ocean meridional overturning circulation.
- Xiaoqin Yan
- , Rong Zhang
- & Thomas R. Knutson
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| Open AccessImpacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means of mitigating the warming effects of climate change, yet the consequences of such action remain uncertain. Here, using a general circulation model, the authors evaluate the effect of stratospheric aerosol injection on tropical cyclone activity.
- Anthony C. Jones
- , James M. Haywood
- & Andy Jones
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Article
| Open AccessPhysical understanding of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship
Tropical cyclone intensity is commonly measured by both central pressure and maximum wind speed, yet the physical relationship between the two is not understood. Here the authors show that the central pressure is an intensity measure that depends on maximum wind speed and the product of storm size and background rotation rate.
- Daniel R. Chavas
- , Kevin A. Reed
- & John A. Knaff
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| Open AccessEnhanced ice sheet melting driven by volcanic eruptions during the last deglaciation
The impact of volcanism on ice sheet melting during the last deglaciation is poorly understood and limited by a lack of suitable proxies. Here, the authors combine annually resolved records of ice sheet melting with numerical models to show that ice sheets are sensitive to high-latitude volcanic eruptions.
- Francesco Muschitiello
- , Francesco S. R. Pausata
- & Barbara Wohlfarth
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| Open AccessThe impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes
Land use and land cover change has led to more frequent hot, dry summers in parts of the mid-latitudes. Here the authors use an Earth system model to show that regions converted to crops and pastures experience hot, dry summers 2 to 4 times more frequently than they would if native forests had remained.
- Kirsten L. Findell
- , Alexis Berg
- & Elena Shevliakova
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| Open AccessAtmospheric observations show accurate reporting and little growth in India’s methane emissions
India’s methane emissions have been quantified using atmospheric measurements to provide an independent comparison with reported emissions. Here Ganesan et al. find that derived methane emissions are consistent with India’s reports and no significant trend has been observed between 2010–2015.
- Anita L. Ganesan
- , Matt Rigby
- & Paul B. Krummel
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| Open AccessA threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India
Against the backdrop of a declining monsoon, the number of extreme rain events is on the rise over central India. Here the authors identify a threefold increase in widespread extreme rains over the region during 1950–2015, driven by an increasing variability of the low-level westerlies over the Arabian Sea.
- M. K. Roxy
- , Subimal Ghosh
- & M. Rajeevan
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| Open AccessTropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa
El Niño tends to follow 2 years after volcanic eruptions, but the physical mechanism behind this phenomenon is unclear. Here the authors use model simulations to show that a Pinatubo-like eruption cools tropical Africa and drives westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific favouring an El Niño response.
- Myriam Khodri
- , Takeshi Izumo
- & Michael J. McPhaden
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| Open AccessTrade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China
International and domestic interprovincial trade of China are entangled, but their health impacts have been treated separately in earlier studies. Here Wang. quantify the complex impacts of trade on public health across China within an integrative framework.
- Haikun Wang
- , Yanxu Zhang
- & Michael B. McElroy
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| Open AccessA 3 °C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory cancels benefits of European emission reductions on air quality
Current national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions track to a temperature rise of about 3 °C. Here the authors use future projections to show that 3 °C warming under a business as usual scenario would result in large increases in ozone concentrations, off-setting any benefits from mitigation policies.
- A. Fortems-Cheiney
- , G. Foret
- & M. Beekmann
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| Open AccessHigh risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate
A succession of storms during the 2013–2014 winter led to record flooding in the UK. Here, the authors use high-resolution climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated and that there remains a high chance of exceeding observed record monthly rainfall totals in many parts of the UK.
- Vikki Thompson
- , Nick J. Dunstone
- & Stephen E. Belcher
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Article
| Open AccessWestern tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
The western tropical Pacific is a main source of heat and moisture for the global atmosphere, yet the mechanism for the multidecadal sea surface temperature variability in this region remains unknown. Here, the authors show that this variability is forced by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
- Cheng Sun
- , Fred Kucharski
- & Ruiqiang Ding
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Article
| Open AccessGreening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene
Evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through the Holocene remains uncertain. Here, via fully coupled model simulations, the authors show that increased Saharan vegetation and reduced dust emissions 6 kyr BP significantly affect ENSO variability through changes in the West African Monsoon strength.
- Francesco S. R. Pausata
- , Qiong Zhang
- & Zhengyu Liu
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| Open AccessRevising the hygroscopicity of inorganic sea salt particles
Sea spray, one of the largest natural aerosol sources, plays an important role in the Earth’s radiative budget. Here the authors show that the ability of sea salt particles to take up water is smaller than for pure salt, with implications for the parameterization of the direct aerosol radiative effect.
- P. Zieger
- , O. Väisänen
- & M. E. Salter
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| Open AccessJanuary 2016 extensive summer melt in West Antarctica favoured by strong El Niño
Sporadic surface melt over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is not fully understood. Here, the authors report on an extensive melting episode in the Ross Ice Shelf area in 2016 and use comprehensivein situobservations and model simulations to highlight the role of the strong El Niño event.
- Julien P. Nicolas
- , Andrew M. Vogelmann
- & Jonathan D. Wille
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| Open AccessTightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate
The sensitivity of global precipitation to warming is largely governed by changes in atmospheric longwave radiation, a function of cloud cover. Here the authors show that tightening of the tropical circulation with warming drives a decrease in high cloud cover, resulting in higher precipitation changes.
- Hui Su
- , Jonathan H. Jiang
- & Yuk L. Yung
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| Open AccessExtreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming
Record temperatures in mainland Southeast Asia in April 2016 had severe impacts on the population. Thirumalaiet al. show that all April extremes occur after El Niño years, and that global warming has increased the likelihood of such extremes.
- Kaustubh Thirumalai
- , Pedro N. DiNezio
- & Clara Deser
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| Open AccessTracing the oxygen isotope composition of the upper Earth’s atmosphere using cosmic spherules
Oxygen contained within cosmic spherules is sourced from the atmosphere, making micrometeorites a possible archive for past atmospheric conditions. Here, Packet al. compare the isotopic composition of oxygen in cosmic spherules from Antarctica with that of the troposphere, and validate the value of this archive.
- Andreas Pack
- , Andres Höweling
- & Luigi Folco
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| Open AccessRecent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries
El Niño events in the Central Pacific may be changing due to climate change, but long records to support this are lacking. Here, the authors present sea surface temperature reconstructions from tree cellulose for the last 800 years which suggest the variability of Central Pacific El Niño events has increased.
- Yu Liu
- , Kim M. Cobb
- & Hans W. Linderholm
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Article
| Open AccessObserved variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns
Over the past century, the frost-free season in the US has lengthened. Here, Strong and McCabe show that most of the variability of spring and fall-frost timing is determined by atmospheric circulation patterns and needs to be considered in future projections of growing season length.
- Courtenay Strong
- & Gregory J. McCabe
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Article
| Open AccessEnhanced heterogeneous ice nucleation by special surface geometry
Understanding ice nucleation is important for the development of accurate cloud models. Here Biet al. show that sharp wedges can enhance ice nucleation both when the wedge geometry matches the ice lattice and when such matching is absent, in which case nucleation is promoted by topological defects.
- Yuanfei Bi
- , Boxiao Cao
- & Tianshu Li
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Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic iron oxide aerosols enhance atmospheric heating
Iron oxide nanoparticles contribute to shortwave absorption in the form of desert dust. Motekiet al. show that iron oxide particles of anthropogenic origin, potentially from motor vehicles and blast furnaces, also contribute to atmospheric heating over East Asia.
- Nobuhiro Moteki
- , Kouji Adachi
- & Yutaka Kondo
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| Open AccessDust-wind interactions can intensify aerosol pollution over eastern China
Anthropogenic aerosol and calm conditions give rise to winter haze episodes in eastern China. Yanget al. show that these weak winds also decrease natural dust emissions, reducing the land–ocean temperature difference and associated winds, enhancing air stagnation and pollution in this region.
- Yang Yang
- , Lynn M. Russell
- & Steven J. Ghan
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Article
| Open AccessClimate variations on Earth-like circumbinary planets
Large variations in insolation experienced by circumbinary planets raise the question of the habitability of such planets. Here, the authors show that while the changing insolation does not radically affect habitability, it does impact on the planet’s climate and on the interpretation of future observations.
- Max Popp
- & Siegfried Eggl
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| Open AccessEnhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect
Biennial variability has intensified in the Pacific in recent decades, but the cause of this increase is not fully understood. Here, with statistical analyses and numerical experiments, the authors show that an Atlantic capacitor effect has given rise to this enhanced biennial variability since the early 1990s.
- Lei Wang
- , Jin-Yi Yu
- & Houk Paek
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Article
| Open AccessThe missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss
It is proposed that Arctic sea ice loss may be a cause of colder European winters, by promoting the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, the author shows that despite an intensification of negative NAO events, sea ice loss does not lead to cooling, and cold extremes actually decrease.
- James A. Screen
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Article
| Open AccessEnvironmental conditions regulate the impact of plants on cloud formation
Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted by vegetation influence cloud formation, yet the impact of environmental stresses remains little known. Here, manipulation experiments reveal insect infestation and heat stress are linked to induced VOC and constitutive VOC emissions shifts, respectively.
- D. F. Zhao
- , A. Buchholz
- & Th. F. Mentel
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Article
| Open AccessRegional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming
Many New Zealand glaciers advanced during recent global warming, bucking a worldwide trend of glacier retreat. Here, the authors show that these glacier advances were forced by a sequence of unusually cool years in the New Zealand region, rather than a period of increased precipitation.
- Andrew N. Mackintosh
- , Brian M. Anderson
- & Sam M. Dean
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| Open AccessObservational evidence for cloud cover enhancement over western European forests
Forests impact continental-scale moisture recycling, but their impact on regional-scale cloud cover is little known. Here, using satellite observations, Teulinget al. illustrate enhanced cloud cover over regional forested areas in western Europe due to the establishment of a forest-breeze circulation.
- Adriaan J. Teuling
- , Christopher M. Taylor
- & Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano
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Article
| Open AccessHydroxyl radical-induced formation of highly oxidized organic compounds
Secondary organic aerosols are important contributors to the Earth’s radiation budget, however questions remain about their formation from highly-oxidized precursors. Here the authors show that the daytime reaction of hydroxyl radicals with α- and β-pinene is a greater source of highly-oxidized products than previously assumed.
- Torsten Berndt
- , Stefanie Richters
- & Mikael Ehn
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| Open AccessGlobal warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons
Super typhoons pose significant societal threats, yet their future behaviour due to rainfall-driven stratification changes remains unexplored. Here, observations and climate models reveal increased precipitation and subsequent freshening will likely intensify future super typhoons in the western N. Pacific.
- Karthik Balaguru
- , Gregory R. Foltz
- & Kerry A. Emanuel
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| Open AccessContribution of Arctic seabird-colony ammonia to atmospheric particles and cloud-albedo radiative effect
The climatic impact of ammonia emissions from Arctic seabird-colony guano is poorly understood. Here, using observations and a chemical transport model, Croftet al. illustrate that guano-associated particles promote cloud-droplet formation, resulting in a pan-Arctic cooling tendency of approximately −0.5 W m−2.
- B. Croft
- , G. R. Wentworth
- & J. R. Pierce
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| Open AccessMore frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall
The central United States has exhibited increased extreme precipitation. Here, using satellite, radar, and rain-gauge data, Feng et al. show that springtime total and extreme rainfall trends are linked to increased intensity and frequency of long-lived Mesoscale Convective Systems.
- Zhe Feng
- , L. Ruby Leung
- & Karthik Balaguru
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| Open AccessOcean feedback to pulses of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the equatorial Indian Ocean
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) describes an eastward propagating pulse of tropical convection. Here, using short-term field measurements, Moum et al. illustrate an MJO memory effect: strong pulses drive enhanced ocean heat loss, weakening subsequent pulses, with implications for MJO prediction.
- James N. Moum
- , Kandaga Pujiana
- & William D. Smyth
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Article
| Open AccessHazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake Victoria
Thunderstorm activity over Lake Victoria poses a threat to human life, yet little is known about their evolution under climate change. Here, using satellite observations and high-resolution modelling, the authors project an increase in precipitation extremes over Lake Victoria, twice that of surrounding land.
- Wim Thiery
- , Edouard L. Davin
- & Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
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| Open AccessThe sources of atmospheric black carbon at a European gateway to the Arctic
Black carbon (BC) contributes positively to the radiation budget, yet models are unable to correctly capture its seasonal variability in the Arctic. Here, the authors demonstrate improved model skill in simulating BC concentration and sources when including estimates of BC emissions from fires.
- P Winiger
- , A Andersson
- & Ö. Gustafsson
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| Open AccessBlack carbon absorption at the global scale is affected by particle-scale diversity in composition
Model and laboratory experiments disagree with observations regarding the absorption properties of black carbon particles. Here, using a particle-resolved aerosol model, the authors show that when composition diversity is considered, absorption enhancement is consistent with ambient observations.
- Laura Fierce
- , Tami C. Bond
- & Nicole Riemer
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Article
| Open AccessUrban heat islands in China enhanced by haze pollution
The impact of locally-sourced aerosols on the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has been difficult to quantify due to opposing long and shortwave radiation effects. Here, using satellite observations and climate model simulations, the authors reveal that urban haze pollution intensifies the nighttime UHI in China.
- Chang Cao
- , Xuhui Lee
- & Lei Zhao
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Article
| Open AccessUbiquity and impact of thin mid-level clouds in the tropics
Clouds play a pivotal role in the Earth’s climate, yet little is known about those at mid-levels. Here, using satellite observations and high-resolution modeling, the authors find thin mid-level clouds, formed by detrainment during deep convection, occur across the tropics with a cooling effect on the climate.
- Quentin Bourgeois
- , Annica M. L. Ekman
- & Radovan Krejci
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Article
| Open AccessA global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels
Protection of coastlines from devastating flooding associated with sea-level extremes is impeded by a lack of continuous records. Here, the authors apply a hydrodynamic modelling approach and present the first reanalysis of tides, surges and extreme sea levels for the entire world's coastline.
- Sanne Muis
- , Martin Verlaan
- & Philip J. Ward
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Article
| Open AccessCorrelation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years
Future projection of changes in the East Asia Summer and Winter Monsoon are hindered by a lack of understanding of past variability. Here, using longterm transient simulations, the authors show that the monsoons respond in phase to precessional forcing, yet out of phase millennial-scale North Atlantic forcing.
- Xinyu Wen
- , Zhengyu Liu
- & Jiang Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessAviation effects on already-existing cirrus clouds
The extent to which air traffic affects the optical thickness of existing cirrus clouds in the upper atmosphere remains unknown. Here, the authors compare cirrus cloud properties inside and outside of real flight tracks and show that optical thickness is significantly increased within the flight path.
- Matthias Tesche
- , Peggy Achtert
- & Kevin J. Noone
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Article
| Open AccessMesoscale atmosphere ocean coupling enhances the transfer of wind energy into the ocean
The precise mechanism for wind energy input into the ocean at mesoscales remains uncertain. Here, using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean model of the South Atlantic, the authors show that a mesoscale conduit associated with oceanic eddies is responsible for up to 10% of kinetic energy transfer.
- D. Byrne
- , M. Münnich
- & N. Gruber
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Article
| Open AccessArctic cut-off high drives the poleward shift of a new Greenland melting record
Atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet, yet the exact dynamics remain unknown. Here, the authors show that record conditions over Greenland during the summer of 2015 were associated with the formation and persistency of an Arctic cut-off high.
- M. Tedesco
- , T. Mote
- & K. Briggs
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| Open AccessWestern Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia
Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature. Here, the authors present a 2000-year hydroclimate record from the Indo-Pacific, which suggests that century-scale variations in these modes are also linked with global temperature variability.
- Michael L. Griffiths
- , Alena K. Kimbrough
- & Wahyoe S. Hantoro