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| Open AccessPoleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality
Tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific have shifted north in recent decades, but the reasons for this are not well understood. Here, the authors show that this is caused by changes in the seasonality of tropical cyclones and is mainly driven by fewer late-season storms.
- Xiangbo Feng
- , Nicholas P. Klingaman
- & Kevin I. Hodges
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Article
| Open AccessIncreasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic
The western United States have seen an increase in wildfire activity in recent decades, the causes of which are not well understood. Here, the authors show that Arctic sea ice decline contributed to this increase through its influence on regional circulation which enhanced fire-favourable weather conditions.
- Yufei Zou
- , Philip J. Rasch
- & Rudong Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessIndian Ocean Dipole leads to Atlantic Niño
The Atlantic Niño is an important mode of tropical Atlantic variability that influences the climate conditions in surrounding areas. Here, the authors use observational data and model simulations to show that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole can trigger Atlantic Niño events.
- Lei Zhang
- & Weiqing Han
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Article
| Open AccessDeglacial variability of South China hydroclimate heavily contributed by autumn rainfall
Deglacial hydroclimate in South China is perennially debated. New modeling experiments reveal that regional hydroclimate was strongly influenced by rainfall during the transition between the East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon, forced by climate variability in the North Atlantic.
- Chengfei He
- , Zhengyu Liu
- & Yishuai Jin
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Article
| Open AccessSignificance of the organic aerosol driven climate feedback in the boreal area
Vegetation emits organic vapors which can form aerosols in the atmosphere and influence cloud properties. Here, the authors show observational evidence that warmer temperatures lead to increased emissions of these aerosols in boreal forests which cause surface cooling, demonstrating a negative climate feedback mechanism.
- Taina Yli-Juuti
- , Tero Mielonen
- & Annele Virtanen
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Article
| Open AccessDiel cycle of sea spray aerosol concentration
Sea spray aerosol (SSA) are an important way through which oceans can influence the atmosphere’s radiative properties. Here, the authors present measurements taken over a 42,000 km ship cruise in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean and show that SSA number concentrations vary over a 24-hour cycle, possibly linked to surface water bubble-bursting dynamics.
- J. Michel Flores
- , Guillaume Bourdin
- & Ilan Koren
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal increase in tropical cyclone rain rate
How much the potential intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) increases in warmer environments is not well known. Here, the authors show that TC rainfall rates have increased by 1.3% per year between 1998 and 2018, a trend that is mainly driven by stronger rainfall in the outer-core region of TCs.
- Oscar Guzman
- & Haiyan Jiang
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Article
| Open AccessClimate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions
How climate change influences the lifecycle of stratospheric volcanic aerosols and the associated radiative forcing is unknown. Here, the authors present model experiments suggesting that climate change amplifies the forcing of large-magnitude tropical eruptions but reduces the forcing of moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions.
- Thomas J. Aubry
- , John Staunton-Sykes
- & Anja Schmidt
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Article
| Open AccessAnthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance
Satellite observations reveal a significant positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood. Here, the authors show that it is exceptionally unlikely that this trend can be explained by internal variability; instead, anthropogenic forcing and feedbacks cause the trend.
- Shiv Priyam Raghuraman
- , David Paynter
- & V. Ramaswamy
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Article
| Open AccessCentral American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity
How the Central American mountains influence tropical cyclone (TC) development in the eastern North Pacific is not well understood. Here, the authors use model simulations to show that on a seasonal timescale, these mountains interrupt moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea and as a result, reduce TC activity by up to 35%.
- Dan Fu
- , Ping Chang
- & Hylke E. Beck
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Perspective
| Open AccessStandard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skill of ENSO forecasts.
- James S. Risbey
- , Dougal T. Squire
- & Carly R. Tozer
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Article
| Open AccessChanges in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century
How tropical cyclones have varied in intensity and frequency in the past is not well known as longer records are rare. Here, the authors show that changes in observing practices explain the recorded century scale increase in Atlantic major hurricane frequency, and recent increases are not part of a century-scale trend.
- Gabriel A. Vecchi
- , Christopher Landsea
- & Thomas Knutson
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Article
| Open AccessClimate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone
Despite a ban on ozone depleting substances, ozone depletion during cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere has been increasing in recent decades. Here, the authors show conditions favourable for Arctic ozone depletion could worsen as a response of stratospheric temperature and water to continued release of greenhouse gases.
- Peter von der Gathen
- , Rigel Kivi
- & Markus Rex
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Article
| Open AccessLarge model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves
Understanding the uncertainties associated with urban heat wave (UHW) projection is critical for local actions to mitigate extreme heat risks in cities. Here, the authors show that choices of model structural design contribute a large proportion of the uncertainty in projecting UHWs under climate change.
- Zhonghua Zheng
- , Lei Zhao
- & Keith W. Oleson
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Article
| Open AccessSignificant underestimation of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions derived from satellite-based methods
Satellite-based estimates of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions are consistently smaller than those from global models, hampering accurate projections of future climate change. Here, the authors show that the discrepancy can be substantially reduced by correcting sampling biases induced by inherent limitations of satellite measurements.
- Hailing Jia
- , Xiaoyan Ma
- & Johannes Quaas
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Article
| Open AccessSpurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño
It has been suggested that sea surface temperatures in the North Tropical Atlantic exert strong influence on the evolution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, the authors argue that observed statistics are fully consistent with ENSO driving climate variations in the Atlantic and not vice versa.
- Wenjun Zhang
- , Feng Jiang
- & Axel Timmermann
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Article
| Open AccessDeep learning for bias correction of MJO prediction
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a crucial component of the tropical weather system, but forecasting it has been challenging. Here, the authors present a deep learning bias correction method that significantly improves multi-model forecasts of the MJO amplitude and phase for up to four weeks.
- H. Kim
- , Y. G. Ham
- & S. W. Son
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Article
| Open AccessJoint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions
The production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) was phased-out under the Montreal, but renewed emissions of CFC-11 have been reported recently. Here, the authors present a joint analysis of multiple factors and find that emissions of CFC-11, but also CFC-12 and CFC-113 are higher than expected, indicating renewed emissions.
- Megan Lickley
- , Sarah Fletcher
- & Susan Solomon
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Article
| Open AccessOcean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming
There is some disagreement between climate models about how much precipitation changes under global warming. Here, the authors use the ocean surface energy balance to constrain the sensitivity of precipitation to historical warming and find that it is increasing by 0.68 ± 0.51% per degree warming.
- Wei Wang
- , T. C. Chakraborty
- & Xuhui Lee
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Article
| Open AccessSkilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead
Long-range predictions of the Asian summer monsoon remain challenging due to its complex atmosphere–land–ocean interactions. Here, the authors show that a large ensemble of model simulations can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead.
- Yuhei Takaya
- , Yu Kosaka
- & Shuhei Maeda
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Article
| Open AccessSulfate formation is dominated by manganese-catalyzed oxidation of SO2 on aerosol surfaces during haze events
Sulfate aerosols are an important component of wintertime haze events in China, but their production mechanisms are not well known. Here, the authors show that transition metal-catalyzed oxidation of SO2 on aerosol surfaces could be the dominant sulfate formation pathway in Northern China.
- Weigang Wang
- , Mingyuan Liu
- & Maofa Ge
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Article
| Open AccessRecent global decrease in the inner-core rain rate of tropical cyclones
How the rainfall intensity of tropical cyclones changes with climate change is not well known. Here, the authors show that while the rain rate in the outer region of TCs is clearly increasing between 1999 and 2018, it decreases significantly in the inner-core of TCs during 1999-2018.
- Shifei Tu
- , Jianjun Xu
- & Long S. Chiu
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Article
| Open AccessIncreased autumn and winter precipitation during the Last Glacial Maximum in the European Alps
What controlled changes of glaciers in the European Alps at the time of their largest extent, about 25,000 years ago, is not well known. Here, the authors use cryogenic carbonates in caves to show that heavy snowfall during autumn and early winter was the main source of glacier growth.
- C. Spötl
- , G. Koltai
- & H. Cheng
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Article
| Open AccessImpact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Here, the authors show that improved representation of summer equatorial Atlantic variability and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific, relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO.
- Eleftheria Exarchou
- , Pablo Ortega
- & Chloé Prodhomme
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Article
| Open AccessAcceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern
The fastest sea-ice decline has been observed in the western Arctic, but the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Here, the authors show that the Pacific North American pattern plays an important role in western Arctic sea-ice variability.
- Zhongfang Liu
- , Camille Risi
- & Gabriel J. Bowen
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Article
| Open AccessAntarctic Peninsula warm winters influenced by Tasman Sea temperatures
The Antarctic Peninsula sees some of the strongest warming of the whole continent over the last decades, the drivers of which are not well known. Here, the authors show that winter sea surface temperature increases in the Tasman sea lead to changes in Southern Ocean storm tracks that in turn warm the Antarctic Peninsula.
- Kazutoshi Sato
- , Jun Inoue
- & Irina Rudeva
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Article
| Open AccessOcean fronts and eddies force atmospheric rivers and heavy precipitation in western North America
Atmospheric rivers are responsible for much of the poleward water vapour transport in the mid-latitudes and can cause extreme precipitation after landfall. Here, the authors show that ocean fronts and eddies can influence atmospheric rivers and increase the associated precipitation along the North American west coast.
- Xue Liu
- , Xiaohui Ma
- & Christina M. Patricola
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Article
| Open AccessGreater fuel efficiency is potentially preferable to reducing NOx emissions for aviation’s climate impacts
The regulation of aircraft engine NOx emissions was introduced to improve local air quality and reduce NOx emissions at altitude. Here, the authors find that greater fuel efficiency of aircrafts, and therefore lower CO2 emissions, could be preferable to reducing NOx emissions in terms of the aviation industries future climate impacts.
- Agnieszka Skowron
- , David S. Lee
- & Bethan Owen
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Article
| Open AccessNew particle formation in the remote marine boundary layer
Globally, new particle formation represents a major source of cloud condensation nuclei. Here, the authors present evidence of frequent occurrence of new particle formation in the upper part of remote marine boundary layer following cold front passages.
- Guangjie Zheng
- , Yang Wang
- & Jian Wang
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Article
| Open AccessDiabatic heating governs the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño
The relative roles of the ocean and atmosphere for the Atlantic Niño is poorly understood. Here, we show that its seasonality is governed by atmospheric diabatic heating that is associated with the seasonal migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone.
- Hyacinth C. Nnamchi
- , Mojib Latif
- & Ingo Richter
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Article
| Open AccessStructures and reactivity of peroxy radicals and dimeric products revealed by online tandem mass spectrometry
Organic peroxy radicals play a pivotal role in producing highly oxygenated organic molecules but the formation mechanisms remain elusive. Here, the authors show in-situ characterization of peroxy radicals and dimer structures in the gas-phase, using online tandem mass spectrometry analyses.
- Sophie Tomaz
- , Dongyu Wang
- & Matthieu Riva
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Article
| Open AccessBiomass burning aerosols in most climate models are too absorbing
Wildfires produce aerosols known to impact the climate, but the wider-reaching effects of this biomass burning are poorly constrained in models. Here the authors use a suite of observations from 12 campaigns around the globe to determine that the values used by most climate models overestimate the contribution of biomass burning aerosols.
- Hunter Brown
- , Xiaohong Liu
- & Duli Chand
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Article
| Open AccessHuman-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather
Human emissions are thought to have caused an increase in wildfire risk, but how different emission sources contribute is less well known. Here, the authors show that the increase due to greenhouse gas emissions was balanced by aerosol-driven cooling, an effect that is projected to disappear during the 21st century.
- Danielle Touma
- , Samantha Stevenson
- & Sloan Coats
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Article
| Open AccessGreater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6
The potential contribution of Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level rise in the future is known to be substantial. Here, the authors undertake new modelling showing that the Greenland Ice Sheet sea level rise contribution is 7.9 cm more using the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario compared to CMIP5 using multiple RCP8.5 simulations.
- Stefan Hofer
- , Charlotte Lang
- & Xavier Fettweis
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Article
| Open AccessTrans-basin Atlantic-Pacific connections further weakened by common model Pacific mean SST biases
Many climate models failed to reproduce the eastern Pacific cooling that has been linked to slower warming in the early 20th century. Here, the authors present a feedback mechanism between the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic which contributes to this bias as it further dampens the Pacific cooling response in models.
- Chen Li
- , Dietmar Dommenget
- & Shayne McGregor
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Article
| Open AccessInter-hemispheric synchroneity of Holocene precipitation anomalies controlled by Earth’s latitudinal insolation gradients
Solar insolation is not equally distributed on the Earth’s surface and such imbalances influence the atmospheric circulation. Here, the authors show that latitudinal insolation gradients synchronized the hydroclimate in the Northern mid-latitudes and the African and South American Monsoons throughout the Holocene.
- Michael Deininger
- , Frank McDermott
- & Denis Scholz
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Article
| Open AccessRecent fall Eurasian cooling linked to North Pacific sea surface temperatures and a strengthening Siberian high
In the last years, an extensive winter cooling over central Eurasia has been discussed widely. Here, the authors show that from 2004–2018, the Eurasian cooling in autumn is stronger than that in winter, and that this autumn cooling is likely influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Siberian high.
- Baofu Li
- , Yupeng Li
- & Xun Shi
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Article
| Open AccessVegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate
Monsoon systems have strong impacts on precipitation and food security over large areas of the world. Here, the authors show that plant responses to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere play a key role in modulating seasonal rainfall and water resources over global land monsoon regions.
- Jiangpeng Cui
- , Shilong Piao
- & Gabriel J. Kooperman
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Article
| Open AccessNear-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has stopped many human activities, which has had significant impact on emissions of greenhouse gases. Here, the authors present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different economic sectors and show that there has been a 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions in the first half of 2020.
- Zhu Liu
- , Philippe Ciais
- & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
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Article
| Open AccessUnconventional oil and gas development and ambient particle radioactivity
Unconventional oil and gas production has increased drastically in the US, but its environmental impacts are not well known. Here, the authors show that these wells can be associated with elevated levels of airborne particle radioactivity in downwind locations.
- Longxiang Li
- , Annelise J. Blomberg
- & Petros Koutrakis
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Article
| Open AccessAndean drought and glacial retreat tied to Greenland warming during the last glacial period
How the abrupt warming events recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial cycle have influenced the tropical climate is not well known. Here the authors present new lake sediment data from the Peruvian Andes that shows that these events resulted in rapid glacier retreat and large reductions in lake level.
- Arielle Woods
- , Donald T. Rodbell
- & Joseph S. Stoner
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Article
| Open AccessSignificant increase of global anomalous moisture uptake feeding landfalling Atmospheric Rivers
Increasing atmospheric temperatures are expected to have various impacts on the global water cycle. Here, the authors show that there is an intensification of atmospheric rivers, that causes enhanced evapotranspiration and thus atmospheric moisture uptake in many regions of the world.
- Iago Algarra
- , Raquel Nieto
- & Luis Gimeno
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Article
| Open AccessReconstructing the electrical structure of dust storms from locally observed electric field data
Electrification is naturally generated in dust storms but its structures remain largely unknown. Here, the authors present an inversion model to reconstruct such structures based on the locally observed electric field data, showing that dust storms exhibit a three-dimensional mosaic charge pattern.
- Huan Zhang
- & You-He Zhou
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Article
| Open AccessA biogenic secondary organic aerosol source of cirrus ice nucleating particles
Ice nucleating particles impact the global climate by altering cloud formation and properties, but the sources of these emissions are not completely characterized. Here, the authors show that secondary organic aerosols formed from the oxidation of organic gases in the atmosphere can be a source of ice nucleating particles.
- Martin J. Wolf
- , Yue Zhang
- & Daniel J. Cziczo
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Article
| Open AccessFrequent new particle formation over the high Arctic pack ice by enhanced iodine emissions
Which vapors are responsible for new particle formation in the Arctic is largely unknown. Here, the authors show that the formation of new particles at the central Arctic Ocean is mainly driven by iodic acid and that particles smaller than 30 nm in diameter can activate as cloud condensation nuclei.
- Andrea Baccarini
- , Linn Karlsson
- & Julia Schmale
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Article
| Open AccessSoil moisture dominates dryness stress on ecosystem production globally
Dryness stresses vegetation and can lead to declines in productivity, increased emission of carbon, and plant mortality, but the drivers of this stress remain unclear. Here the authors show that soil moisture plays a dominant role relative to atmospheric water demand over most global land vegetated areas.
- Laibao Liu
- , Lukas Gudmundsson
- & Sonia I. Seneviratne
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Article
| Open AccessIndian Ocean warming as a driver of the North Atlantic warming hole
A significant part of the subpolar North Atlantic has warmed less over the past century than the rest of the global ocean, a feature called the North Atlantic warming hole. Here, the authors show that this anomaly can be explained by remote atmospheric forcing from the rapidly warming Indian Ocean.
- Shineng Hu
- & Alexey V. Fedorov
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Article
| Open AccessGlobal temperature modes shed light on the Holocene temperature conundrum
Proxy reconstructions show a decreasing trend from the Middle to Late Holocene, which conflicts with model results showing an increasing trend. Statistical analysis of model output shows that these conflicting results originate from two distinct modes of variability, which dominate at different regions and times.
- Jürgen Bader
- , Johann Jungclaus
- & Martin Claussen
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Article
| Open AccessForecasting extreme stratospheric polar vortex events
Extreme events high up in the winter stratosphere are known to influence our weather and their predictability has potential to improve seasonal weather forecasts. Here, the authors examine factors that influence their generation and highlight a previously unrecognised sensitivity to the upper equatorial stratosphere.
- L. J. Gray
- , M. J. Brown
- & J. Anstey