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| Open AccessCorrelation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years
Future projection of changes in the East Asia Summer and Winter Monsoon are hindered by a lack of understanding of past variability. Here, using longterm transient simulations, the authors show that the monsoons respond in phase to precessional forcing, yet out of phase millennial-scale North Atlantic forcing.
- Xinyu Wen
- , Zhengyu Liu
- & Jiang Zhu
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Article
| Open AccessAviation effects on already-existing cirrus clouds
The extent to which air traffic affects the optical thickness of existing cirrus clouds in the upper atmosphere remains unknown. Here, the authors compare cirrus cloud properties inside and outside of real flight tracks and show that optical thickness is significantly increased within the flight path.
- Matthias Tesche
- , Peggy Achtert
- & Kevin J. Noone
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| Open AccessMesoscale atmosphere ocean coupling enhances the transfer of wind energy into the ocean
The precise mechanism for wind energy input into the ocean at mesoscales remains uncertain. Here, using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean model of the South Atlantic, the authors show that a mesoscale conduit associated with oceanic eddies is responsible for up to 10% of kinetic energy transfer.
- D. Byrne
- , M. Münnich
- & N. Gruber
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Article
| Open AccessArctic cut-off high drives the poleward shift of a new Greenland melting record
Atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet, yet the exact dynamics remain unknown. Here, the authors show that record conditions over Greenland during the summer of 2015 were associated with the formation and persistency of an Arctic cut-off high.
- M. Tedesco
- , T. Mote
- & K. Briggs
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Article
| Open AccessWestern Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia
Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature. Here, the authors present a 2000-year hydroclimate record from the Indo-Pacific, which suggests that century-scale variations in these modes are also linked with global temperature variability.
- Michael L. Griffiths
- , Alena K. Kimbrough
- & Wahyoe S. Hantoro
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| Open AccessNo inter-gyre pathway for sea-surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic
It has been proposed that sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the Gulf Stream aid regional climate predictions months to years in advance. Here, the authors show that a surface pathway for SST anomalies does not exist, as Gulf Stream waters reach higher latitudes by sub-surface pathways.
- Nicholas P. Foukal
- & M. Susan Lozier
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Article
| Open AccessThe absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature
The conspicuous absence of a North Atlantic sea surface temperature signature from western European temperature records remains an anomaly. Here, the authors show that this is due to a dynamic atmospheric circulation anomaly that suppresses the expected thermodynamic response.
- Ayako Yamamoto
- & Jaime B. Palter
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| Open AccessStratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones
Accurate forecasts of hurricane intensity remain problematic. Here, using an ocean observing network to inform ocean and atmospheric model simulations, the authors show that consideration of ahead-of-eye cooling improves intensity forecasts.
- S. M. Glenn
- , T. N. Miles
- & J. Kohut
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| Open AccessSummer rainfall over the southwestern Tibetan Plateau controlled by deep convection over the Indian subcontinent
While precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau is a vital resource for glacier mass balance, river runoff and local ecology, the controlling mechanisms are poorly understood. Here, the authors combine observations and simulations and show that convective storms over India sweep moisture up and over the plateau.
- Wenhao Dong
- , Yanluan Lin
- & Fanghua Xu
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| Open AccessTornado outbreak variability follows Taylor’s power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity
Tornadoes, which cause loss of life and damage to property worldwide, may occur in outbreaks of six or more in rapid succession. Here, the authors show that the annual mean number of tornadoes per US outbreak rose over the last 60 years, with the variance increasing four times faster than the mean.
- Michael K. Tippett
- & Joel E. Cohen
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Article
| Open AccessObservations of narrow bipolar events reveal how lightning is initiated in thunderstorms
How lightning is initiated inside storms has been a long-standing and fundamental question. Here, the authors report observations of a previously unrecognized type of discharge, called fast positive breakdown, that is found to initiate many and potentially all lightning discharges in storms.
- William Rison
- , Paul R. Krehbiel
- & Yang Zhang
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Article
| Open AccessTransition to a Moist Greenhouse with CO2 and solar forcing
Greenhouse-gas forcing has previously been thought to be rather ineffective at destroying the habitability of Earth-like planets. Here, the authors show that CO2is as effective as solar forcing at causing a climate transition to a Moist-Greenhouse regime and thus poses an equal threat to a planet's habitability.
- Max Popp
- , Hauke Schmidt
- & Jochem Marotzke
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Article
| Open AccessEvidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes
Mechanisms responsible for the recent increase in Antarctic sea ice cover remain elusive. Here, the authors show that model underestimates of changes in wind-induced ocean circulation may contribute, in part, to the failure of CMIP5 models to accurately capture modern Antarctic sea ice trends.
- Ariaan Purich
- , Wenju Cai
- & Tim Cowan
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| Open AccessRapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity
Tropical cyclones rarely achieve high intensities gradually. Here, the authors show that rapid intensification is relevant not only to short-term weather forecasting, but also to the relationship between tropical cyclones and climate.
- Chia-Ying Lee
- , Michael K. Tippett
- & Suzana J. Camargo
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| Open AccessThe puzzling Venusian polar atmospheric structure reproduced by a general circulation model
Unlike some planets, the Venusian polar vortex is warmer than the mid-latitudes at cloud-top level, but the mechanism behind this is unknown. Here, the authors use a general circulation model and suggest the cold collar and warm polar regions are due to residual mean meridional circulation intensified by thermal tides.
- Hiroki Ando
- , Norihiko Sugimoto
- & Yoshihisa Matsuda
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| Open AccessUnexpected seasonality in quantity and composition of Amazon rainforest air reactivity
The degree to which biogenic volatile organic compounds released by the Amazon canopy impact oxidation capacity remains uncertain. Here, the authors evaluate the vertical distribution of total hydroxyl radical reactivity and individual trace gases in the Amazon rainforest, and determine seasonal variations.
- A. C. Nölscher
- , A. M. Yañez-Serrano
- & J. Williams
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| Open AccessEuropean land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling
The relationship between terrestrial carbon sinks and atmospheric modes of variability remains uncertain. Here, the authors show that the coupling of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East-Atlantic patterns explains variations in the European CO2sink from 1982 to 2012.
- Ana Bastos
- , Ivan A. Janssens
- & Steven W. Running
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Article
| Open AccessHumidity trends imply increased sensitivity to clouds in a warming Arctic
The cloud radiative effect (CRE) in the Arctic plays an important role in the amount of infrared radiation that reaches the surface. Here, the authors show that interplay between temperature and humidity controls CRE through competing influences in two semi-transparent wavelength ranges.
- Christopher J. Cox
- , Von P. Walden
- & Matthew D. Shupe
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Article
| Open AccessThermodynamic controls of the Atlantic Niño
The nature of the El Niño-like variability in the Atlantic Ocean and its limited predictability remain unresolved. Here, via multi-model numerical experiments, the authors show that much of the variability can be explained by the interaction of stochastic atmospheric fluctuations with the ocean mixed layer.
- Hyacinth C. Nnamchi
- , Jianping Li
- & Riccardo Farneti
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| Open AccessIncreasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming
Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here, the authors present the results of multi-model simulations that project an increase in drought and flooding towards the end of the century.
- Jin-Ho Yoon
- , S-Y Simon Wang
- & Philip J. Rasch
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Article |
Relativistic electron avalanches as a thunderstorm discharge competing with lightning
Gamma-ray ‘glows’ are long duration high-energy emissions from thunderclouds. Here, the authors present observations of these emissions using the ADELE array of detectors and suggest that gamma ray emissions are related to relativistic runaway electron avalanches.
- Nicole A. Kelley
- , David M. Smith
- & Hamid K. Rassoul
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Article
| Open AccessHail formation triggers rapid ash aggregation in volcanic plumes
The behaviour of airborne fine ash during explosive volcanic eruptions is poorly understood. Here, the authors study hail formation during an eruption, proposing a mechanism of particle aggregation that leads to the fallout of fine ash and the occurrence of concentrically layered aggregates in volcanic deposits
- Alexa R. Van Eaton
- , Larry G. Mastin
- & Amanda B. Clarke
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| Open AccessClimate variability modulates western US ozone air quality in spring via deep stratospheric intrusions
Deep stratospheric ozone intrusions can elevate western US ground-level ozone to unhealthy concentrations, but the factors driving interannual variability are poorly understood. Here, the authors combine observations and numerical simulations showing a link between intrusion events and strong La Niña winters.
- Meiyun Lin
- , Arlene M. Fiore
- & Harald E. Rieder
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| Open AccessSkilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific can influence global atmospheric circulation, yet prediction of this atmospheric signal is limited to less than 1 year. Here, the authors present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability.
- Yoshimitsu Chikamoto
- , Axel Timmermann
- & Fei-Fei Jin
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Article |
A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America
Tornadoes are one of nature’s most hazardous phenomena, yet prognostic tools for tornado occurrence are lacking. Here, the authors use Bayesian inference techniques to evaluate the spatiotemporal relationship between atmospheric variables and tornado activity in North America.
- Vincent Y.S. Cheng
- , George B. Arhonditsis
- & Heather Auld
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| Open AccessTropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature
The rainfall rate of tropical cyclones is expected to increase under a warmer climate, yet likely changes in rainfall area remain unknown. Here, the authors combine satellite data and model simulations and show that rainfall area is dependent on relative sea surface temperatures.
- Yanluan Lin
- , Ming Zhao
- & Minghua Zhang
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| Open AccessWeak linkage between the heaviest rainfall and tallest storms
Conventionally, the heaviest rainfall is associated with the most intense storms, yet this relationship remains untested. Here, Hamada et al. analyse 11 years of radar observations from the topics and subtropics, and conclude that the heaviest rainfall is most commonly associated with less intense convection.
- Atsushi Hamada
- , Yukari N. Takayabu
- & Edward J. Zipser
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Article |
Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall
Rainfall in the Sahel region has a decadal variability related to tropical sea-surface temperatures; however, models disagree regarding future changes in rainfall. Here the authors suggest that differential warming in the northern hemisphere is key to understanding this discrepancy.
- Jong-Yeon Park
- , Jürgen Bader
- & Daniela Matei
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Article |
Orbital Asian summer monsoon dynamics revealed using an isotope-enabled global climate model
Asian speleothem δ18O records are widely used as a proxy for summer monsoon intensity, but their validity has been questioned. Here, the authors evaluate their validity using a 150,000-year transient simulation from an isotope-enabled global climate model.
- Thibaut Caley
- , Didier M. Roche
- & Hans Renssen
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Persistence of pressure patterns over North America and the North Pacific since AD 1500
Synoptic-scale atmospheric pressure patterns control moisture delivery and thus drought occurrence across western North America, yet long-term records are lacking. Here, the authors use a novel combination of tree-ring data and self-organizing maps to reconstruct and analyse pressure patterns since AD 1500.
- Erika K. Wise
- & Matthew P. Dannenberg
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Natural snowfall reveals large-scale flow structures in the wake of a 2.5-MW wind turbine
Models of turbulent flows are often simulated in the laboratory, in sampling areas with dimensions <1 m. Here, the authors exploit a natural snowstorm to quantify turbulent flows, exploring the complex dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer around a 2.5-MW utility-scale wind turbine.
- Jiarong Hong
- , Mostafa Toloui
- & Fotis Sotiropoulos
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Article |
Plasma irregularities in the D-region ionosphere in association with sprite streamer initiation
Sprites are spectacular optical emissions in the mesosphere with an enigmatic filamentary nature. Qin et al.present high-speed video and modelling data revealing sub-millisecond dynamics to reconstruct the structures on a km-scale, showing that pre-existing plasma irregularities are responsible for their initiation.
- Jianqi Qin
- , Victor P. Pasko
- & Hans C. Stenbaek-Nielsen
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Paired oxygen isotope records reveal modern North American atmospheric dynamics during the Holocene
The Pacific North American teleconnection strongly influences modern climate in North America, yet long-term variability remains unknown. Liu et al.reconstruct precipitation histories from palaeoisotope proxy records and identify modern atmospheric patterns during the Holocene.
- Zhongfang Liu
- , Kei Yoshimura
- & Fasong Yuan
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| Open AccessThe dynamic surface tension of atmospheric aerosol surfactants reveals new aspects of cloud activation
The formation of cloud droplets from aerosol particles in the atmosphere is difficult to comprehend experimentally and theoretically. Here, the authors measure the dynamic surface tension of atmospheric aerosols and evidence previously overlooked processes, likely to improve this understanding.
- Barbara Nozière
- , Christine Baduel
- & Jean-Luc Jaffrezo
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Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe
The sensitivity of human populations to rising global temperatures is not yet fully understood. The authors describe the link between temperature and daily mortality in over 200 European regions and calculate projections of mortality from climate models under greenhouse gas scenario simulations.
- Joan Ballester
- , Jean-Marie Robine
- & Xavier Rodó
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Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin
Assessments of future water availability in South America are uncertain based on multiple coupled general circulation models. Shiogamaet al.identify global-scale metrics for measuring the reliability of water resource assessments, and indicate a higher probability of drying in the Amazon basin.
- Hideo Shiogama
- , Seita Emori
- & Toru Nozawa