Agriculture

Springmann and Freund use an integrated modelling framework to show that coupling agricultural subsidies to producing foods with beneficial health and environmental characteristics can improve population health and lower greenhouse gas emissions without reducing economic welfare.

Flash droughts can have devastating impacts but are notoriously difficult to predict. This study identifies global hotspots of flash drought, driven by evaporative demand and precipitation deficits across varying geographic regions and crop-type, providing a framework for flash drought prediction.

Spectral screening can be used to monitor plant health. Here via airborne hyperspectral imaging of tree species, the authors show that spectral pathways associated with vascular pathogens can be distinguished from those linked to abiotic stress providing the potential for early detection of threatening diseases.

Irrigation is the most important use of water. A newly developed irrigation management scheme leads to a significant reduction in water use and increase in economic gains while maintaining crop yields, presenting opportunities for real-world impacts under current and future climate conditions.

Global demand for “blue food” is growing. In this quantitative synthesis, the authors analyse global seafood demand and project trends to 2050, finding considerable regional variation in the relationship between wealth and consumption.

Crop diversification could be important for food security. Here, using methods from network science, the authors find that a positive relationship between crop diversity and nutritional stability globally does not necessarily equate to improving nutritional stability in a given country.

In chocolate production, a complicated tempering process is used to guide the crystallization of cocoa butter towards its most desirable polymorph, which gives the chocolate proper melting behavior, gloss, and snap—hallmarks of good quality chocolate. Here, the authors find that simply adding a specific phospholipid also directs crystallization towards this polymorph, producing chocolate with comparable microstructure and properties to tempered chocolate.

European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders. Here the authors find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change.

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus affecting humans and non-human primates (NHPs) with seasonal transmission. Here Hamlet et al. model the monthly occurrence of YF in humans and NHPs across Brazil and show that seasonality of agriculture is an important predictor of seasonal YF transmission.

China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Here the authors find a promising option to abate 1.0 Gt CO₂-eq yr⁻¹ of carbon emissions at a marginal cost of $69 (t CO₂-eq)⁻¹ by retrofitting 222 GW of coal power plants to co-fire with biomass and upgrading to CCS operation across 2836 counties in China.

Quantifying land use change is critical in tackling global challenges related to food, climate and biodiversity. Here the authors show that land use change has affected 32 % of the global land area in six decades (1960- 2019) by combining multiple open datasets to create the HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment +.

Agricultural sectors receive US$600 billion per year in government support, providing incentives for GHG emission-intensive production. Here, the authors show that removing this support will not reduce global GHG emissions by much; rather it will need to be radically redirected to contribute to climate change mitigation.

Chicken are a biological model and an important agricultural animal. Here, the authors demonstrate that pure breed genome edited chicks can be produced for any chicken breed by direct mating of sterile surrogate hosts carrying donor genome edited germ cells.

Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions not only amplify the global climate crisis, but cause damage currently unaccounted for by food prices. Here the authors show the calculation of prices with internalized climate costs for food categories and production systems, revealing strong market distortions.

Long-term dynamics of species’ range sizes play a crucial role in determining extinction risks. Here the authors simulate global vegetation cover and scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change to estimate habitat range sizes of thousands of mammal, bird, and amphibian species since 1700, and project trajectories up to 2100 under four emission scenarios and five socio-economic pathways.

Fraudulent adulteration of edible oils is based on the fact that their characteristic fatty acid profile can be mimicked with mixtures of other oil types. Here, the authors use a deep learning method to uncover fatty acid patterns discriminative for ten different plant oil types and to discern composition of mixtures.

Biofortification is an effective means to reduce micronutrient malnutrition. Here, the authors review recent advances in biofortification and propose stacking multiple micronutrient traits into high-yielding varieties through the combination of conventional breeding and genetic engineering approaches.

Switching and relocating crops could be a key pathway for agricultural adaptation to climate change. Here, Rising and Devineni use data-driven Bayesian modelling to estimate the potential for crop switching to mitigate climate impacts on US crop production under a high-emission scenario, showing considerable opportunities but also limitations.

Phosphorus is an essential nutrient critical for agriculture, but because it is non-renewable its future availability is threatened. Here the authors show that across the globe most nations have net losses of phosphorus, with soil erosion as the major route of loss in Europe, Africa and South America.

Wheat yield is sensitive to temperature, but there could be substantial variation in this response across cultivars. Here the authors present data on the climatic responses of wheat cultivars in South Africa, highlighting which cultivars might be better able to maintain yield under warming.

Global largest agricultural ammonia (NH₃) emissions in China have caused severe damage to both ecosystem and human health, yet no policy is formulated to reduce NH₃ emissions. Here, the authors show that halving agricultural NH₃ emissions with feasible technical mitigation options in China generates far more societal benefits than abatement costs.

Studies on examining the climate impact on irrigated agriculture do not account for regional specific details. Here the authors studied both the direct and indirect impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) and found that increasingly severe droughts and temperature driven reductions in growing season significantly reduces expected annual agricultural productivity.

Insect population control using conditional lethal systems could break down due to spontaneous mutations that render the system ineffective. Here the authors analyse the structure and frequency of such mutations in Drosophila and suggest the use of dual lethality systems to mitigate their survival.

Extreme high temperature events are increasing in frequency and severity, threatening the capacity for crops and farmers alike to adapt. Here Sloat and colleagues track the movement of cereal crops over the past 40 years, finding a global migration away from warming climates.

The role of paddy rice agriculture in the spatial and temporal dynamics of atmospheric methane concentration remains unclear. Here, Zhang et al. show that regions with dense rice paddies have high satellite-based column averaged CH₄ concentrations (XCH₄), and that seasonal dynamics of XCH₄ mirror those of paddy rice growth.

The magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions from land use change on tropical peatlands is unclear. Here, the authors measure greenhouse gas fluxes throughout the conversion from peat swamp forest to oil palm plantation, and estimate the contribution to regional and global emissions.

Here, the authors combine in silico analysis of 435 genomes of ruminal bacteria and archaea with transcriptomics and in vitro assays to investigate the distribution, expression and mobility of antibiotic resistance genes within the ruminal microbiota, finding that the tet(W) gene is under positive selective pressure.

The greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of organic methods is poorly understood. Here, the authors assess the GHG impact of a 100% shift to organic food production in England and Wales and find that direct GHG emissions are reduced with organic farming, but when increased land use abroad to allow for production shortfalls is factored in, GHG emissions are elevated well-above the baseline.

The processes driving soil carbon accretion remain to be poorly understood. Here the authors combined X-ray micro-tomography and zymography to demonstrate that plant-stimulated soil pore formation is a major, hitherto unrecognized, determinant of whether new C inputs are stored or lost to the atmosphere.

So far identified clostridial neurotoxins target vertebrates. Here, Contreras et al. isolate the clostridial-like neurotoxin PMP1 from Paraclostridium bifermentans strains and show that it selectively targets anopheline mosquitoes by targeting mosquito syntaxin.

The increase in needs for agricultural commodities is projected to outpace the growth of farmland production globally, leading to high pressure on farming systems in the next decades. Here, the authors investigate the future impact of cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity, and suggest the need for balancing agricultural production with conservation goals.

Whether or not China can be rice self-sufficient in the future is in question. Here the authors provide a spatially explicit yield-gap analysis of Chinese rice production under future scenarios, identifying priority areas for improving yields to meet demands by 2030.

Pollinator communities could have nuanced effects on crop yield depending on their species and functional trait compositions. Here, the authors use a meta-analysis to show that, in addition to pollinator abundance, functional trait divergence also positively impacts yield of oilseed rape crops.

When bees carry pollen, it sticks to their legs and it can be carried without being dropped in a range of different humidity conditions. Here the authors find that the adhesive holding the pollen together consists of two phases and the oily phase stabilizes the aqueous phase with respect to humidity changes.

There has been a lack of multi-year landscape-scale studies on the effect of neonicotinoids on honeybee health. Here, Osterman et al. show that clothianidin exposure via seed-treated rapeseed has no negative impact on honeybee colony development, microbial pathogens/symbionts or immune gene expression.

The potential impact of neonicotinoid field exposure on bumblebee microbiota remains unclear. In a landscape—scale study, Wintermantel et al. show that whilst exposure to clothianidin impacts Bombus terrestris performance, it does not affect levels of gut bacteria, viruses or intracellular parasites.

Drivers of crop yield variability require quantification, and historical records can help in improving understanding. Here, Webber et al. report that drought stress will remain a key driver of yield losses in wheat and maize across Europe, and benefits from CO₂ will be limited in low-yielding years.

Rising demand for ruminant meat and dairy products in developing nations drives increasing GHG and ammonia emissions from livestock. Authors show here that only long-term adoption of global best-practice in sustainable intensification buffered by a short-term coping strategy of green-source trading can offer a way forward.

Plant growth and physiology respond to the presence of neighboring plants. Here the authors show that the chemicals (-)-loliolide and jasmonic acid, which were present in the root exudates of a range of plant species, can be detected by wheat and induce allelochemical production.

Yields vary between different cropping systems, though their temporal stability has not been quantified. Here, Knapp and van der Heijden present a meta-analysis showing that yields in organic agriculture have, per unit food produced, a lower temporal stability.

Paraquat is a widely used herbicide that is highly toxic to humans upon acute ingestion or chronic exposure. Here, the authors generate a photosensitive formulation that releases paraquat upon exposure to UV light or sunlight, which shows an improved safety profile in zebrafish and mouse models, while maintaining substantial herbicidal activity.

Climate oscillations such as El Niño Southern Oscillation may impact global crop production. Here, the authors, using a unified framework of multiple climate oscillations, find that from 1961 to 2010 over two-thirds of the global cropland is located where crop productivity is influenced by climate oscillations.

To achieve the climate target of the Paris Agreement substantial emission reductions will be required across economic sectors. Here the authors show that agriculture can make a significant contribution to non-CO₂ mitigation efforts through structural change in the livestock sector and the deployment of technical options.

Organic agriculture requires fewer inputs but produces lower yields than conventional farming. Here, via a modeling approach, Muller et al. predict that if food waste and meat consumption are reduced, organic agriculture could feed the world without requiring cropland expansion.

Sustainable development goals for water use and food production are in conflict, but this could be reduced by proper water management. Here, violations of global environmental flow requirements for rivers are quantified and related to reconciliation potentials in irrigated and rainfed agriculture.

Life cycle assessments are used by corporations to determine the sustainability of raw source materials. Here, Chaplin-Krameret al. develop an improved life cycle assessment approach incorporating spatial variation in land-use change, and apply this framework to a bioplastic case study.

Quantifying the toxicity of herbicides applied in the field is difficult. Here, the author applies a quotient to evaluate changes in relative toxicity over the past 25 years and finds that increased herbicide use does not necessarily constitute increased toxicity.