Volume 7 Issue 2, February 2017

Human activity is changing Earth's climate. Now that this has been acknowledged and accepted in international negotiations, climate research needs to define its next frontiers.

Political upsets could stall coordinated international mitigation action, but emissions and investments over the next few years will have long-term consequences. Any delays to mitigation or cuts to renewable energy research by the US will likely render the 2 °C target unachievable if a global precedent is set.

The countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts are among the poorest in the world. A recent evaluation of Least Developed Countries Fund projects suggests that adaptation efforts must move beyond technological solutions.

Tracking progress toward the Paris 2015 goal is critical to the terms of the agreement. A new analysis shows how various drivers influence CO₂ emissions, and indicates that more technological advancements are needed to make deep cuts in global emissions.

Carbon dioxide emission scenarios rely on a number of assumptions about how societies will develop in the future, creating uncertainty in projections. Now, research reveals the sensitivity of emission estimates to some of these assumptions.

Increased atmospheric CO₂ enhances grassland biomass production under average conditions, but contrary to earlier predictions the effect declines when it gets wetter, drier, or hotter.

Australia allocates less than 0.1% of health funding to research on health and climate change. This Perspective highlights the country's strength in the individual disciplines of climate science and health research and calls for bringing these areas together.

Forty-five years after it was first proposed, climate change has revived debates around the concept of limits to growth. This Review reflects on economic perspectives on limits to growth, and proposes a third option to reduce resistance to climate policies.

Socioeconomic scenarios of climate change contain a number of assumptions, which lead to uncertainty in projections. Emission estimates in the scenarios are found to be most sensitive for assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth.

This paper presents interrelated indicators for tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement. Findings show broad consistency with keeping warming below 2 °C, but technological advances are needed to achieve net-zero emissions.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences tropical cyclone variability. Under climate change, cyclones around Pacific island nations are projected to increase in frequency during El Niño events and decrease during La Niña events.

Extreme rainfall is predicted to increase with warming; however observations show differing rates of change. This study shows rainfall-associated cooling reduces the observed scaling rate. Projections show increased scaling rates in the future particularly for the strongest extremes.

Increasing dry season length in central Panama reduced population growth rates and viability in nearly one-third of the 20 tropical bird species investigated. Such changes are projected to alter tropical bird community structure in protected areas.

A temperate grassland experiment shows that CO₂ fertilization increases above-ground biomass most strongly under local average environmental conditions, but the effect is reduced or disappears under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions.

Research into the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands has tended to focus on sea-level rise. Now modelling of Gulf of Mexico wetland plant community responses to climate change projects transformative ecological changes this century.

Satellite and atmospheric observations show that the rate of net biome productivity has accelerated over the warming ‘hiatus’ period (1998–2012). This net gain results from reduced respiration, rather than increased primary productivity.