Research articles

Research integrating experimental data and modelling to improve representation of plant physiological thresholds infers largely temperature-driven loss of conifer trees by 2100 across the southwestern USA and much of the Northern Hemisphere.

Global river flood risk is expected to increase substantially over coming decades due to both climate change and socioeconomic development. Model-based projections suggest that southeast Asia and Africa are at particular risk, highlighting the need to invest in adaptation measures.

Climate, evolutionary age, topography, land area and several species traits all influence range size. Research quantifying these influences on terrestrial vertebrates suggests that small-range species may be most vulnerable to climate change.

The response of climate to external forcing is known as climate sensitivity, and its estimates are calculated from historical observations. This study estimates the efficacy of individual forcings and revises climate sensitivities accordingly.

A statistical analysis of rainfall records over Europe compared with climate reconstructions based on sediment and pollen time series data suggests that proxy records can be reliable descriptors of long-term precipitation variability.

The chemical breakdown of rocks can be enhanced by spreading silicate granules over land. Research suggests that this measure, which increases the rate at which CO₂ is locked up in ocean carbonates, could lower atmospheric CO₂ by 30–300 ppm by 2100.

Incorporating temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and foliar respiration into Earth system models improves their ability to reproduce observed net ecosystem exchange of CO₂, and reduces the temperature sensitivity of terrestrial carbon exchange.

Satellite-derived estimates of increases in terrestrial net primary productivity are less than half of those derived from Earth system models. This discrepancy is explained by over-sensitivity of Earth system models to atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.

The extent to which distant populations fluctuate similarly has significant ecological consequences, but can be difficult to investigate. Now research reveals the drivers of phenological synchrony for aphid pest species across the United Kingdom.

Arctic temperatures are most sensitive to emissions of short-lived climate forcers from a small number of Arctic nations (Russia and Nordic countries) that are also the most impacted by this warming, easing the implementation of mitigation strategies.

An application of network science reveals the institutional and corporate structure of the climate change counter-movement in the United States, while computational text analysis shows its influence in the news media and within political circles.

Carbon payments for afforestation can help mitigate climate change and declining biodiversity. This paper evaluates 14 policy mechanisms for supplying carbon and biodiversity benefits through reforestation in Australia’s 85.3 Mha of agricultural land.

Rigorous measurement of adaptation policies is crucial to implementing successful climate policy. Policy analysis of 41 countries shows an 87% increase in adaptation initiatives since 2010, suggesting that concrete adoption of such practices is growing.

Modelling allows estimation of aerosol–climate feedbacks on the Earth’s radiative balance and suggests that climate change may increase aerosol burden and surface concentration, negatively affecting future air quality.

This study considers how large-scale application of solar panels will affect climate. Electricity generation leads to regional cooling but this is countered by the power’s use, affecting global circulation patterns with changes in regional rainfall.

A game theory experiment shows that it is easier to reach an agreement to avert the worst impacts of climate change when a catastrophic threshold is known. It also shows that countries’ use of strategic reasoning puts such agreements at risk.

The dipole-like trend of tropical sea surface temperature is investigated and this study finds it to be initiated in the Atlantic Ocean. Atlantic warming drives wind and circulation changes and influences Pacific Ocean surface temperatures.

Seasonal aragonite undersaturation events are predicted to affect Southern Ocean surface waters by 2030. This study shows ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ will cause these events, with spatial spread and duration increasing rapidly from 2035.

This study uses model projections of the open water season (for 1920–2100) to investigate Arctic sea-ice decline. Nearshore regions began shifting from pre-industrial conditions in 1990, and human influence is projected to emerge in 2040.

Climate change is causing drylands to expand and this work shows that they will cover half of the land surface by 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario.