Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Letter
  • Published:

An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 269–274 (2016)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Atmospheric aerosols are of significant environmental importance, due to their effects on air quality, as well as their ability to alter the planet’s radiative balance. Recent studies characterizing the effects of climate change on air quality and the broader distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere show significant, but inconsistent results, including the sign of the effect1,2,3. Using a suite of state-of-the-art climate models, we show that climate change is associated with a negative aerosol–climate feedback of −0.02 to −0.09 W m−2 K−1 for direct radiative effects, with much larger values likely for indirect radiative effects. This is related to an increase in most aerosol species, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, largely due to a decrease in wet deposition associated with less large-scale precipitation over land. Although simulation of aerosol processes in global climate models possesses uncertainty, we conclude that climate change may increase aerosol burden and surface concentration, which may have implications for future air quality.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: ACCMIP seasonal sulphate-burden response to climate change.
Figure 2: Percentage change in large-scale precipitation in response to climate change.
Figure 3: CAM5 aerosol burden and radiative effects in response to warming.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Dawson, J. P., Adams, P. J. & Pandis, S. N. Sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate in the Eastern US: A modeling case study. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 4295–4309 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Jacob, D. J. & Winner, D. A. Effect of climate change on air quality. Atmos. Environ. 43, 51–63 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Pye, H. O. T. et al. Effects of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate–nitrate–ammonium aerosol levels in the United States. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D01205 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Held, I. M. & Soden, B. J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Clim. 19, 5686–5699 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Yin, J. H. A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18701 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I. & Roeckner, E. Storm tracks and climate change. J. Clim. 19, 3518–3543 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Vecchi, G. A. & Soden, B. J. Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Clim. 20, 4316–4340 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Seidel, D. J., Fu, Q., Randel, W. J. & Reichler, T. J. Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nature Geosci. 1, 21–24 (2008).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Chang, E. K. M., Guo, Y. & Xia, X. CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D23118 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Racherla, P. N. & Adams, P. J. Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D24103 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Avise, J. et al. Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to global changes. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9, 1111–1124 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Kirtman, B. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 953–1028 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Ackerley, D., Highwood, E. J., Frame, D. J. & Booth, B. B. B. Changes in global sulfate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations. J. Clim. 22, 5421–5432 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Kloster, A. et al. A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions. Clim. Dynam. 34, 1177–1194 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Fang, Y. et al. The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D18303 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Carslaw, K. et al. A review of natural aerosol interactions and feedbacks within the Earth system. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 1701–1737 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Raes, F., Liao, H., Chen, W.-T. & Seinfeld, J. H. Atmospheric chemistry-climate feedbacks. J. Geophys. Res. 115, D12121 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Liao, H., Zhang, Y., Chen, W. T., Raes, F. & Seinfeld, J. H. Effect of chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling on predictions of future climate and future levels of tropospheric ozone and aerosols. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D10306 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Bellouin, N. et al. Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D20206 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Boucher, O. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 571–658 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Lamarque, J. F. et al. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics. Geosci. Model Dev. 6, 179–206 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Shindell, D. T. et al. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 2939–2974 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Myhre, G. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 659–740 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the climate modelling groups participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) for producing and making available their model output, and the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, California 92521, USA

    Robert J. Allen

  2. Corporate Strategic Research, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering, Annandale, New Jersey 08801, USA

    William Landuyt

  3. Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK

    Steven T. Rumbold

Authors
  1. Robert J. Allen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. William Landuyt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Steven T. Rumbold
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

R.J.A. conceived the project, designed the study, carried out the data analysis and led the writing of the paper. W.L. assisted in writing of the paper. S.T.R. provided un-archived HadGEM2 data. All authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Robert J. Allen.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Allen, R., Landuyt, W. & Rumbold, S. An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world. Nature Clim Change 6, 269–274 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2827

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2827

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing