Articles in 2017

Reductions in precipitation and water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Niño events (1997–2016). Fires follow a predictable cascade across tropical continents that may improve seasonal fire forecasts.

Climate and CO₂ trends have driven significant changes in global crop water demand over the last 30 years but with variation by region and crop type. If trends continue, it could be a challenge for adaptation efforts to keep pace with water demand.

In the version of this Article previously published, technical problems led to the wrong summary appearing on the homepage, and an incorrect Supplementary Information file being uploaded. Both errors have now been corrected.

Large, intense thunderstorms frequently cause flooding and fatalities. Now, research finds that these storms may see a threefold increase in frequency and produce significantly heavier downpours in the future, far exceeding previous estimates.

The Arctic is under-represented in surface temperature datasets and this could affect estimates of global warming. A new dataset with greater coverage of the Arctic shows a higher warming rate of 0.112 °C per decade compared to 0.005 °C from IPCC AR5.

Limitations with climate models have previously prevented accurate diagnosis of future changes in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). A convection-permitting model now indicates that summer MCSs will triple by 2100 in the United States, with a corresponding increase in rainfall rates and areal extent.

Here emission curves are developed for advanced biofuel supply chains to enhance understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting for landscape heterogeneity.

Achieving the longer-term goals of the Paris Agreement and transformation to a low-carbon society requires an acceleration in electricity generation investment and capacity addition above that outlined in the US Nationally Determined Contribution.

Post-monsoon season severe cyclonic storms were first observed over the Arabian Sea in 2014 and 2015. Highresolution modelling reveals their increased frequency can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing, and not natural variability.

The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability.

Warming interacts with forest disturbance and drought to shape the energetic structure of soil food webs; these changes can undermine the provision of multiple ecosystem functions in transitional boreal–temperate forests.

State policies play a key role in mitigation of power-sector emissions. Analysis of 17 policies in the US shows that mandatory compliance is reducing emissions, with the largest reductions related to greenhouse gas reporting and public benefit funds.

The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come?

Recent scientific advances make it possible to assign extreme events to human-induced climate change and historical emissions. These developments allow losses and damage associated with such events to be assigned country-level responsibility.