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Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions

Nature Climate Change volume 7, pages 848–850 (2017)Cite this article

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The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability.

Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and industry did not change from 2014 to 2016, yet there was a record increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere1. This apparent inconsistency is explained by the response of the natural carbon cycle to the 2015–2016 El Niño event2, but it raises important questions about our ability to detect a sustained change in emissions from the atmospheric record. High-accuracy calibrated atmospheric measurements, diverse satellite data, and integrative modelling approaches could, and ultimately must, provide independent evidence of the effectiveness of collective action to address climate change. This verification will only be possible if we can fully filter out the background variability in atmospheric CO2 concentrations driven by natural processes, a challenge that still escapes us.

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Fig. 1: Trends in CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Fig. 2: Our current ability to detect sustained changes in CO2 emissions based on atmospheric CO2 observations.

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Acknowledgements

This work was possible thanks to substantial contributions by many scientists and funding agencies that supported the Global Carbon Budget 2017 compiled by the Global Carbon Project. G.P.P., R.M.A., J.I.K. acknowledge the support of the Norwegian Research Council (project number 209701). J.G.C. acknowledges the support of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Programme’s (NESP) Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. P.F. acknowledges support from the European Commission Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO (grant number 641816). F.J. acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (number 200020_172476). G.A.M. acknowledges support from the Center for Climate and Life at Columbia University.

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Affiliations

  1. CICERO Center for International Climate Research, PO Box 1129, Blindern, Oslo, Norway

    Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew & Jan Ivar Korsbakken

  2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, UK

    Corinne Le Quéré

  3. Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia

    Josep G. Canadell

  4. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Pierre Friedlingstein

  5. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

    Tatiana Ilyina

  6. Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

    Robert B. Jackson

  7. Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

    Robert B. Jackson

  8. Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oescher Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    Fortunat Joos

  9. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, USA

    Galen A. McKinley

  10. College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    Stephen Sitch

  11. NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division, Boulder, CO, USA

    Pieter Tans

Authors
  1. Glen P. Peters
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  2. Corinne Le Quéré
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  7. Robert B. Jackson
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Contributions

G.P.P., C.L.Q., and J.G.C. designed the research; G.P.P. made Fig. 1; G.P.P., C.L., P.F., F.J. made Fig. 2. All authors analysed the data, figures, and contributed to the text.

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Correspondence to Glen P. Peters.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Peters, G.P., Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R.M. et al. Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions. Nature Clim Change 7, 848–850 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0013-9

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