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Costs of achieving climate targets are uncertain. A metamodel estimates the median costs of limiting warming to 2 °C and 1.5 °C to be US$15 trillion and US$30 trillion. Uncertainty in emissions reductions costs dominates at these levels; climate system uncertainty dominates at higher warming levels.
Nitrogen removal occurs primarily through microbially mediated denitrification, which produces the GHG N2O, and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), which does not. Warming stimulates denitrification relative to annamox in subtropical sediments, indicating that warming could lead to greater N2O production.
Coal use is responsible for a large proportion of climate damages. This study shows that phasing out coal yields substantial near-term, local environmental and health benefits that outweigh direct policy costs, providing incentives for immediate climate action.
Concrete production emits high levels of GHGs. It also causes air pollution, with emissions of particulate matter as well as nitrogen and sulfur oxides, which together with GHG emissions cause climate and health damages nearing 75% of the industry value.
Over 60 years of hydrographic data from southeast of Bermuda show the temporal variability of North Atlantic subtropical mode water. Between 2010 and 2018, there was an 86–93% loss of thickness, suggesting weaker production of mode water that is expected to continue with warming.
Changes in the leaf area index alter the distribution of heat and moisture. The change in energy partitioning related to leaf area, increasing latent and decreasing sensible fluxes over the observational period 1982–2016, is moderated by plant functional type and background climate.
Northern peatlands are a significant carbon sink but are vulnerable to decomposition during drought and low water tables. Woody litter added to these ecosystems during high water table conditions leaches polyphenolics that protect carbon stores against decomposition, even during subsequent drought.
The partisan divide between Republicans and Democrats on climate change is large and shows no signs of narrowing. However, a new analysis shows that Republicans’ climate change attitudes were relatively unstable between 2014–2018, triggering cautious optimism that a tipping point in attitudes might be around the corner.
Climate change beliefs in the US are politically polarized. Using longitudinal survey data, this study finds that climate change beliefs are less stable over time for Republicans compared with Democrats, suggesting that public beliefs may eventually shift towards broader acceptance.
Under climate change, sea-level rise is expected to bring about large changes in the world’s coastlines. Now, research predicting future shoreline change from satellite data indicates loss of nearly 50% of sandy beaches by the end of the century.
Flash droughts, which develop over the course of weeks, are difficult to forecast given the current state of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. This Perspective offers operational and research definitions, places them in the broader context of climate and suggests avenues for future research.
Erosion is a major problem facing sandy beaches that will probably worsen with climate change and sea-level rise. Half the world’s beaches, many of which are in densely populated areas, could disappear by the end of the century under current trends; mitigation could lessen retreat by 40%.
Much of Australia has been in severe drought since at least 2017. Here we link Australian droughts to the absence of Pacific and Indian Ocean mode states that act as key drivers of drought-breaking rains. Predicting the impact of climate change on drought requires accurate modelling of these modes of variability.
