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  • News & Views |

    Gravity-based estimates of mass change have been extended by the recently launched GRACE Follow-On Satellites. The satellite record, combined with regional climate models, reveals that the Greenland Ice Sheet had lower mass loss in 2017–2018, only to return to a record-breaking mass loss in the summer of 2019.

    • Yara Mohajerani

  • News & Views |

    The response of coastal groundwater to sea-level rise is largely unknown. Groundwater modelling along the California coast — accounting for complex topography and its interaction with rivers, streams and tributaries — shows that the area at risk from rising groundwater tables extends beyond that inundated by sea-level rise alone.

    • Christine May

  • Article |

    Sea-level rise raises water tables, causing flooding from below and saltwater intrusion. A modelling study predicts that coastal California groundwater flooding will expand 50–130 m inland with 1 m of sea-level rise, with areal flooding extent strongly dependent on topography and drainage capacity.

    • K. M. Befus
    • , P. L. Barnard
    • , D. J. Hoover
    • , J. A. Finzi Hart
    •  & C. I. Voss

  • Article |

    Reforestation has been recently identified as a promising climate mitigation option. In Southeast Asia, 120 million ha of land are biophysically suitable for reforestation. However, financial, land-use and operational factors constrain mitigation potential to a fraction of its total possible value.

    • Yiwen Zeng
    • , Tasya Vadya Sarira
    • , L. Roman Carrasco
    • , Kwek Yan Chong
    • , Daniel A. Friess
    • , Janice Ser Huay Lee
    • , Pierre Taillardat
    • , Thomas A. Worthington
    • , Yuchen Zhang
    •  & Lian Pin Koh

  • Article |

    Climate change is driving changes in the species composition of plant communities. Analyses of the collection records of thousands of New World plant species reveal widespread increases in the relative abundances of heat-loving species but less consistent responses to changes in precipitation.

    • K. J. Feeley
    • , C. Bravo-Avila
    • , B. Fadrique
    • , T. M. Perez
    •  & D. Zuleta

  • Article |

    Climate models predict that by 2020, 20–55% of the three key ocean basins express an anthropogenic fingerprint of change. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses are particularly sensitive, emerging as early as the 1980–1990s, consistent with observations of change over the past 30 years.

    • Yona Silvy
    • , Eric Guilyardi
    • , Jean-Baptiste Sallée
    •  & Paul J. Durack

  • Article |

    Wide-ranging estimates of the social cost of carbon limit its usefulness in setting carbon prices. Near-term to net zero is an alternative modelling approach that focuses on the prices, combined with other policies, needed to set an economy on a pathway consistent with a net-zero emissions target.

    • Noah Kaufman
    • , Alexander R. Barron
    • , Wojciech Krawczyk
    • , Peter Marsters
    •  & Haewon McJeon

  • News & Views |

    More intense precipitation is an expected consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Now research quantifies the effect of more concentrated rainfall on American agriculture.

    • Ethan E. Butler

  • Letter |

    Short-term extreme weather events such as hourly heat can negatively impact crop yields. US maize and soy yields are damaged by rare extreme hourly downpours, but benefit from more common heavy rainfall, indicating yields may benefit from increasing precipitation intensity under climate change.

    • Corey Lesk
    • , Ethan Coffel
    •  & Radley Horton

  • Article |

    Arctic climate in the Last Interglacial (LIG)—a warm period 130,000–116,000 years ago—is poorly simulated by modern climate models. A model with improved sea-ice melt-pond physics reproduces LIG Arctic temperatures, suggests an ice-free Arctic during this period and predicts the same by 2035.

    • Maria-Vittoria Guarino
    • , Louise C. Sime
    • , David Schröeder
    • , Irene Malmierca-Vallet
    • , Erica Rosenblum
    • , Mark Ringer
    • , Jeff Ridley
    • , Danny Feltham
    • , Cecilia Bitz
    • , Eric J. Steig
    • , Eric Wolff
    • , Julienne Stroeve
    •  & Alistair Sellar

  • Article |

    Multilevel network modelling shows that social network exposure promotes both adaptive and transformative responses to climate change among Papua New Guinean islanders. Different social–ecological network structures are associated with adaptation versus transformation.

    • Michele L. Barnes
    • , Peng Wang
    • , Joshua E. Cinner
    • , Nicholas A. J. Graham
    • , Angela M. Guerrero
    • , Lorien Jasny
    • , Jacqueline Lau
    • , Sarah R. Sutcliffe
    •  & Jessica Zamborain-Mason

  • Article |

    Reduced GHG and air pollutant emissions during the COVID-19 lockdowns resulted in declines in NOx emissions of up to 30%, causing short-term cooling, while ~20% SO2 emissions decline countered this for overall minimal temperature effect.

    • Piers M. Forster
    • , Harriet I. Forster
    • , Mat J. Evans
    • , Matthew J. Gidden
    • , Chris D. Jones
    • , Christoph A. Keller
    • , Robin D. Lamboll
    • , Corinne Le Quéré
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    • , Deborah Rosen
    • , Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
    • , Thomas B. Richardson
    • , Christopher J. Smith
    •  & Steven T. Turnock

  • Article |

    Detecting a human role in a given year of extreme glacier mass loss is difficult at regional scales. Event attribution methods estimate that two extreme mass-loss years in the New Zealand Southern Alps, 2011 and 2018, were at least six and ten times more likely with anthropogenic climate warming.

    • Lauren J. Vargo
    • , Brian M. Anderson
    • , Ruzica Dadić
    • , Huw J. Horgan
    • , Andrew N. Mackintosh
    • , Andrew D. King
    •  & Andrew M. Lorrey

  • Article |

    Warming harms public health in Chinese cities directly via heat and indirectly by worsening air quality. Climate and epidemiological models estimate that reducing aerosols in a warmer climate can enhance atmospheric ventilation, reduce particulate matter exposure and offset warming-driven deaths.

    • Chaopeng Hong
    • , Qiang Zhang
    • , Yang Zhang
    • , Steven J. Davis
    • , Xin Zhang
    • , Dan Tong
    • , Dabo Guan
    • , Zhu Liu
    •  & Kebin He

  • Article |

    Climate warming over Canada drives glacier retreat and threatens water resources in regions that rely on downstream meltwater. Streamflow and climate data are combined with a municipal water source database to identify Alberta communities whose water supply would be most impacted by glacier retreat.

    • Sam Anderson
    •  & Valentina Radić

  • Editorial |

    Nature Climate Change is making changes to our article formats to streamline our content and more clearly denote original research contributions.

  • Matters Arising |

    • H. B. O’Neill
    • , C. R. Burn
    • , M. Allard
    • , L. U. Arenson
    • , M. I. Bunn
    • , R. F. Connon
    • , S. A. Kokelj
    • , S. V. Kokelj
    • , A.-M. LeBlanc
    • , P. D. Morse
    •  & S. L. Smith

  • Perspective |

    In recent decades, the Arctic has warmed at over twice the global rate. This Perspective places these trends into the context of abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events in the palaeoclimate record, arguing that the contemporary Arctic is undergoing comparably abrupt climate change.

    • Eystein Jansen
    • , Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
    • , Trond Dokken
    • , Kerim H. Nisancioglu
    • , Bo M. Vinther
    • , Emilie Capron
    • , Chuncheng Guo
    • , Mari F. Jensen
    • , Peter L. Langen
    • , Rasmus A. Pedersen
    • , Shuting Yang
    • , Mats Bentsen
    • , Helle A. Kjær
    • , Henrik Sadatzki
    • , Evangeline Sessford
    •  & Martin Stendel

  • News & Views |

    International trade plays an important role in ensuring the resilience of the global food system. Now research suggests a further reduction in trade barriers could alleviate the impacts of climate change on hunger risk.

    • Victor Nechifor
    •  & Emanuele Ferrari

  • Comment |

    Phasing out coal requires expanding the notion of a ‘just transition’ and a roadmap that specifies the sequence of coal plant retirement, the appropriate policy instruments as well as ways to include key stakeholders in the process.

    • Michael Jakob
    • , Jan Christoph Steckel
    • , Frank Jotzo
    • , Benjamin K. Sovacool
    • , Laura Cornelsen
    • , Rohit Chandra
    • , Ottmar Edenhofer
    • , Chris Holden
    • , Andreas Löschel
    • , Ted Nace
    • , Nick Robins
    • , Jens Suedekum
    •  & Johannes Urpelainen

  • Article |

    Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to achieve 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C climate targets. Analysis of equitable distributions of CDR responsibility shows 2–3 times larger responsibility on large emitters such as the United States, China and the European Union than under a least-cost approach.

    • Claire L. Fyson
    • , Susanne Baur
    • , Matthew Gidden
    •  & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

  • News & Views |

    Climate change will lead to geographic shifts in global habitats, forcing plant populations to migrate or perish. Model-based analysis for wind-dispersed plants under future climate conditions show the importance of considering both ‘where to go’, in terms of the desired temperature, and ‘how to get there’, in terms of wind speed and direction.

    • Gil Bohrer
    •  & Jelle Treep

  • Article |

    The impacts of climate change on agriculture differ regionally and will increase hunger globally. Reducing tariffs and other barriers to international trade would mitigate this, but trade integration requires a careful approach to avoid reducing domestic food security in food-exporting regions.

    • Charlotte Janssens
    • , Petr Havlík
    • , Tamás Krisztin
    • , Justin Baker
    • , Stefan Frank
    • , Tomoko Hasegawa
    • , David Leclère
    • , Sara Ohrel
    • , Shaun Ragnauth
    • , Erwin Schmid
    • , Hugo Valin
    • , Nicole Van Lipzig
    •  & Miet Maertens

  • Article |

    Wind patterns could enhance or hinder the ability of organisms reliant on wind-driven dispersal and pollination to shift their ranges under climate change. Organisms in the tropics and on the leeward side of mountains may be particularly at risk due to scarcity of suitable, wind-accessible sites.

    • Matthew M. Kling
    •  & David D. Ackerly

  • Letter |

    Polar bear numbers are expected to decline as the sea ice they rely on to catch their prey declines with global warming. Projections show when fasts caused by declining sea ice are likely to lead to rapid recruitment and survival declines across the polar bear circumpolar range.

    • Péter K. Molnár
    • , Cecilia M. Bitz
    • , Marika M. Holland
    • , Jennifer E. Kay
    • , Stephanie R. Penk
    •  & Steven C. Amstrup

  • News & Views |

    Over the last two decades, many countries have passed laws addressing climate change and related areas. Research now shows that these laws make a difference to emission outcomes, but the pathways of impact require further research.

    • Navroz K. Dubash

  • Comment |

    Extreme weather damage databases report no significant heatwave impacts in sub-Saharan Africa since 1900, yet the region has experienced a number of heatwaves and will be affected disproportionately by them under climate change. Addressing this reporting discrepancy is crucial to assess the impacts of future extreme heat there.

    • Luke J. Harrington
    •  & Friederike E. L. Otto

  • Comment |

    Planned relocation of communities exposed to climate hazards is an important adaptation measure. However, relocation planning and policies must recognize and support those who do not wish to relocate, particularly groups with strong place attachment and for whom relocation may increase, not reduce, vulnerability.

    • Carol Farbotko
    • , Olivia Dun
    • , Fanny Thornton
    • , Karen E. McNamara
    •  & Celia McMichael

  • Analysis |

    The economic optimality of limiting global warming to below 2 °C has been questioned. This analysis shows that the 2 °C target is economically optimal in a version of the DICE model that includes updated climate science, climate damage estimates and evidence on social discount rates.

    • Martin C. Hänsel
    • , Moritz A. Drupp
    • , Daniel J. A. Johansson
    • , Frikk Nesje
    • , Christian Azar
    • , Mark C. Freeman
    • , Ben Groom
    •  & Thomas Sterner

  • Article |

    Climate change laws are shown to reduce national CO2 emissions by 0.78% in their first three years and 1.79% in the longer term. These reductions add up to 38 GtCO2 of avoided emissions for 1999–2016—equal to a year of CO2 emissions.

    • Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander
    •  & Sam Fankhauser

  • Article |

    A large proportion of anthropogenic heat energy is being taken up by ocean warming. Analysis of yearly 0–700 m ocean heat content maps from four different estimates shows that the longer the period over which regional trends are estimated, the larger the area of statistically significant warming.

    • Gregory C. Johnson
    •  & John M. Lyman

  • Article |

    Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) are thought to have short-term impacts relative to CO2. A compact Earth system model estimates SLCFs have caused substantial, long-term impacts via carbon–climate feedbacks since the pre-industrial era but species-dependent impacts of opposite sign largely cancel.

    • Bo Fu
    • , Thomas Gasser
    • , Bengang Li
    • , Shu Tao
    • , Philippe Ciais
    • , Shilong Piao
    • , Yves Balkanski
    • , Wei Li
    • , Tianya Yin
    • , Luchao Han
    • , Xinyue Li
    • , Yunman Han
    • , Jie An
    • , Siyuan Peng
    •  & Jing Xu

  • Article |

    The rate of warming in many marine ecosystems is faster in winter than in summer. Winter warming will impact fish species’ associations in the Mediterranean more than summer warming, and this has implications for how communities form and for future biodiversity, particularly in heavily fished areas.

    • Nicholas J. Clark
    • , James T. Kerry
    •  & Ceridwen I. Fraser

  • News & Views |

    Warming can change the vegetation growing season, but the response of autumn phenology to warming remains uncertain. Now research shows warming can lead to autumn greening by delaying leaf senescence, but carbon uptake is constrained by radiation.

    • Sujong Jeong

  • Letter |

    Phenological shifts due to warming extend the growing season for plants, with implications for ecosystem productivity. Carbon uptake through photosynthesis is limited by radiation, particularly in autumn, which explains contrasting regional responses of autumn carbon uptake to rising temperatures.

    • Yao Zhang
    • , Róisín Commane
    • , Sha Zhou
    • , A. Park Williams
    •  & Pierre Gentine

  • Article |

    Autumn leaf senescence has later onset, higher phenological plasticity and a stronger climatic response under warm compared to cold autumns. While night-time warming delays senescence, drought induced by daytime warming advances it, which may lead to loss in growing season under global warming.

    • Lei Chen
    • , Heikki Hänninen
    • , Sergio Rossi
    • , Nicholas G. Smith
    • , Stephanie Pau
    • , Zhiyong Liu
    • , Guanqiao Feng
    • , Jie Gao
    •  & Jianquan Liu

  • Article |

    Carbon dioxide removal technologies may be needed to meet climate targets. In this study, national surveys and deliberative workshops in the United States and the United Kingdom show that carbon dioxide removal is perceived as too slow to address the immediate climate crisis while not addressing the root causes of climate change.

    • Emily Cox
    • , Elspeth Spence
    •  & Nick Pidgeon

  • Letter |

    Large-scale mechanisms causing regional drying are not well understood. Models and observational data reveal that human-caused changes in GHGs and aerosols led to detectable global and hemispheric signals in the joint behaviour of precipitation, temperature and aridity since the 1950s.

    • Céline J. W. Bonfils
    • , Benjamin D. Santer
    • , John C. Fyfe
    • , Kate Marvel
    • , Thomas J. Phillips
    •  & Susan R. H. Zimmerman