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  • News & Views |

    Raising the cost of carbon is critical for effective climate policy, but is politically challenging because the public are averse to costs. Conventional wisdom suggests this could be addressed by giving the public time to adjust by gradually increasing costs. However, new research shows that the public actually prefers a constant cost curve.

    • Christopher Warshaw

  • Article |

    High warming rates may exceed an organism’s ability to track their thermal habitats. The velocity of climate change in inland standing waters will increase markedly under future warming, making freshwater species particularly vulnerable because their habitat is fragmented in the landscape.

    • R. Iestyn Woolway
    •  & Stephen C. Maberly

  • Comment |

    Co-production is an increasingly popular approach to knowledge generation encouraged by donors and research funders. However, power dynamics between institutions in the Global North and South can, if not adequately managed, impede the effectiveness of co-production and pose risks for long-term sustainability.

    • Katharine Vincent
    • , Suzanne Carter
    • , Anna Steynor
    • , Emma Visman
    •  & Katinka Lund Wågsæther

  • Article |

    Monitoring of snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) cause-specific mortality and behaviour reveals increased risk of predation from coyote (Canis latrans) in shallow snow. This could disrupt the keystone Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis)–hare predator–prey cycle in North American boreal forests.

    • Michael J. L. Peers
    • , Yasmine N. Majchrzak
    • , Allyson K. Menzies
    • , Emily K. Studd
    • , Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau
    • , Rudy Boonstra
    • , Murray Humphries
    • , Thomas S. Jung
    • , Alice J. Kenney
    • , Charles J. Krebs
    • , Dennis L. Murray
    •  & Stan Boutin

  • Article |

    Using a meta-analysis approach, the authors find robust evidence that environmental factors play a role in explaining migration patterns across countries and over time, but the size of the effects depend on the economic and sociopolitical context, and the environmental factors considered.

    • Roman Hoffmann
    • , Anna Dimitrova
    • , Raya Muttarak
    • , Jesus Crespo Cuaresma
    •  & Jonas Peisker

  • Article |

    The short observational record makes it difficult to gauge how unprecedented recent Arctic warming is. A multi-model large ensemble estimates a new Arctic climate has emerged for sea-ice extent. As the Arctic shifts from a primarily frozen state, temperature and precipitation follow within decades.

    • Laura Landrum
    •  & Marika M. Holland

  • Article |

    Many marine species have migrated towards the poles as water temperatures warm. In contrast, due to changes in the timing of spawning and transport, benthic invertebrates on the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf are pushed into warmer waters where mortality could be higher.

    • Heidi L. Fuchs
    • , Robert J. Chant
    • , Elias J. Hunter
    • , Enrique N. Curchitser
    • , Gregory P. Gerbi
    •  & Emily Y. Chen

  • Article |

    Multinational enterprises and their international supply chains can have large carbon footprints, but there is mitigation potential. Global carbon transfer through investment has declined in recent years, and this framework, assigning emissions to the investing country, would inform further action.

    • Zengkai Zhang
    • , Dabo Guan
    • , Ran Wang
    • , Jing Meng
    • , Heran Zheng
    • , Kunfu Zhu
    •  & Huibin Du

  • Comment |

    Observed ice-sheet losses track the upper range of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report sea-level predictions, recently driven by ice dynamics in Antarctica and surface melting in Greenland. Ice-sheet models must account for short-term variability in the atmosphere, oceans and climate to accurately predict sea-level rise.

    • Thomas Slater
    • , Anna E. Hogg
    •  & Ruth Mottram

  • Article |

    Warming is increasing glacial lakes, and scaling relations show a 48% increase in volume for 1990 to 2018. All measures—area, volume, number—increased, providing water storage but also representing a potential hazard with the risk of outburst floods.

    • Dan H. Shugar
    • , Aaron Burr
    • , Umesh K. Haritashya
    • , Jeffrey S. Kargel
    • , C. Scott Watson
    • , Maureen C. Kennedy
    • , Alexandre R. Bevington
    • , Richard A. Betts
    • , Stephan Harrison
    •  & Katherine Strattman

  • Article |

    Aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) peaks in the pre-monsoon period, but the controlling dynamics remain unclear. Observational analysis shows that low February Arctic sea ice boosts the Asian subtropical jet in April, which can loft aerosols over the Himalayas onto the TP.

    • Fei Li
    • , Xin Wan
    • , Huijun Wang
    • , Yvan Joseph Orsolini
    • , Zhiyuan Cong
    • , Yongqi Gao
    •  & Shichang Kang

  • Editorial |

    In this interconnected world, many of us would regularly jump on a plane, or train, for a weekend away, or into a car to pop to the shops or to visit family and friends. But the way we travel, day-to-day and on longer trips, will need to change if mitigation targets, including net-zero aspirations, are to be met.

  • Comment |

    We need a modern-day Marshall Plan to build climate resilience in the developing world. It is doable if, for each dollar spent reaching net zero, we spend an additional 25 cents on building resilience.

    • Tim Palmer

  • Feature |

    A new star has exploded back onto the climate scene: hydrogen. It offers possibilities to move away from fossil fuels, but it brings its own challenges.

    • Sonja van Renssen

  • News & Views |

    Theory and observation suggest that populations of long-lived organisms fare worse than short-lived counterparts when submitted to increased mortality. Now, research shows that longevity affords the prospect of reducing mortality by breeding less under stress.

    • Gonçalo Ferraz

  • Perspective |

    As road transport emissions are set to grow, stronger policy mixes are needed to reach mitigation goals. This Perspective considers the evidence for several policy types—strong regulation, pricing and reduced travel—and the best combination to reduce emissions for passenger and freight vehicles.

    • Jonn Axsen
    • , Patrick Plötz
    •  & Michael Wolinetz

  • Article |

    Gaps in geographic coverage of species abundance data, especially in the tropics, make determining species’ responses to climate change difficult. Modelling a dataset on global waterbird abundance shows abundance declines in the tropics and increases at higher latitudes when temperatures increase.

    • Tatsuya Amano
    • , Tamás Székely
    • , Hannah S. Wauchope
    • , Brody Sandel
    • , Szabolcs Nagy
    • , Taej Mundkur
    • , Tom Langendoen
    • , Daniel Blanco
    • , Nicole L. Michel
    •  & William J. Sutherland

  • Article |

    Cities have an important role in climate mitigation. Textual analysis techniques and regression modelling show the progress made by over 1,000 cities reporting in the European Covenant of Mayors initiative, active in climate action at the urban level.

    • Angel Hsu
    • , Jonas Tan
    • , Yi Ming Ng
    • , Wayne Toh
    • , Regina Vanda
    •  & Nihit Goyal

  • Article |

    Negative emissions technologies are a cornerstone of many mitigation scenarios that limit global warming under 2 °C. Depending on the conditions, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage can provide negative emissions but requires large amounts of land and should be deployed early and with limits.

    • S. V. Hanssen
    • , V. Daioglou
    • , Z. J. N. Steinmann
    • , J. C. Doelman
    • , D. P. Van Vuuren
    •  & M. A. J. Huijbregts

  • Article |

    Negative emissions technologies are essential in scenarios for meeting Paris climate targets. Modelling results show that direct air capture could play an important role with less demand for land yet high energy and water use compared with BECCS and afforestation.

    • Jay Fuhrman
    • , Haewon McJeon
    • , Pralit Patel
    • , Scott C. Doney
    • , William M. Shobe
    •  & Andres F. Clarens

  • News & Views |

    Gravity-based estimates of mass change have been extended by the recently launched GRACE Follow-On Satellites. The satellite record, combined with regional climate models, reveals that the Greenland Ice Sheet had lower mass loss in 2017–2018, only to return to a record-breaking mass loss in the summer of 2019.

    • Yara Mohajerani

  • News & Views |

    The response of coastal groundwater to sea-level rise is largely unknown. Groundwater modelling along the California coast — accounting for complex topography and its interaction with rivers, streams and tributaries — shows that the area at risk from rising groundwater tables extends beyond that inundated by sea-level rise alone.

    • Christine May

  • Article |

    Reforestation has been recently identified as a promising climate mitigation option. In Southeast Asia, 120 million ha of land are biophysically suitable for reforestation. However, financial, land-use and operational factors constrain mitigation potential to a fraction of its total possible value.

    • Yiwen Zeng
    • , Tasya Vadya Sarira
    • , L. Roman Carrasco
    • , Kwek Yan Chong
    • , Daniel A. Friess
    • , Janice Ser Huay Lee
    • , Pierre Taillardat
    • , Thomas A. Worthington
    • , Yuchen Zhang
    •  & Lian Pin Koh

  • Article |

    Climate change is driving changes in the species composition of plant communities. Analyses of the collection records of thousands of New World plant species reveal widespread increases in the relative abundances of heat-loving species but less consistent responses to changes in precipitation.

    • K. J. Feeley
    • , C. Bravo-Avila
    • , B. Fadrique
    • , T. M. Perez
    •  & D. Zuleta

  • Article |

    Climate models predict that by 2020, 20–55% of the three key ocean basins express an anthropogenic fingerprint of change. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses are particularly sensitive, emerging as early as the 1980–1990s, consistent with observations of change over the past 30 years.

    • Yona Silvy
    • , Eric Guilyardi
    • , Jean-Baptiste Sallée
    •  & Paul J. Durack

  • Article |

    Sea-level rise raises water tables, causing flooding from below and saltwater intrusion. A modelling study predicts that coastal California groundwater flooding will expand 50–130 m inland with 1 m of sea-level rise, with areal flooding extent strongly dependent on topography and drainage capacity.

    • K. M. Befus
    • , P. L. Barnard
    • , D. J. Hoover
    • , J. A. Finzi Hart
    •  & C. I. Voss

  • Article |

    Wide-ranging estimates of the social cost of carbon limit its usefulness in setting carbon prices. Near-term to net zero is an alternative modelling approach that focuses on the prices, combined with other policies, needed to set an economy on a pathway consistent with a net-zero emissions target.

    • Noah Kaufman
    • , Alexander R. Barron
    • , Wojciech Krawczyk
    • , Peter Marsters
    •  & Haewon McJeon

  • News & Views |

    More intense precipitation is an expected consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Now research quantifies the effect of more concentrated rainfall on American agriculture.

    • Ethan E. Butler

  • Article |

    Multilevel network modelling shows that social network exposure promotes both adaptive and transformative responses to climate change among Papua New Guinean islanders. Different social–ecological network structures are associated with adaptation versus transformation.

    • Michele L. Barnes
    • , Peng Wang
    • , Joshua E. Cinner
    • , Nicholas A. J. Graham
    • , Angela M. Guerrero
    • , Lorien Jasny
    • , Jacqueline Lau
    • , Sarah R. Sutcliffe
    •  & Jessica Zamborain-Mason

  • Letter |

    Short-term extreme weather events such as hourly heat can negatively impact crop yields. US maize and soy yields are damaged by rare extreme hourly downpours, but benefit from more common heavy rainfall, indicating yields may benefit from increasing precipitation intensity under climate change.

    • Corey Lesk
    • , Ethan Coffel
    •  & Radley Horton

  • Article |

    Arctic climate in the Last Interglacial (LIG)—a warm period 130,000–116,000 years ago—is poorly simulated by modern climate models. A model with improved sea-ice melt-pond physics reproduces LIG Arctic temperatures, suggests an ice-free Arctic during this period and predicts the same by 2035.

    • Maria-Vittoria Guarino
    • , Louise C. Sime
    • , David Schröeder
    • , Irene Malmierca-Vallet
    • , Erica Rosenblum
    • , Mark Ringer
    • , Jeff Ridley
    • , Danny Feltham
    • , Cecilia Bitz
    • , Eric J. Steig
    • , Eric Wolff
    • , Julienne Stroeve
    •  & Alistair Sellar

  • Article |

    Reduced GHG and air pollutant emissions during the COVID-19 lockdowns resulted in declines in NOx emissions of up to 30%, causing short-term cooling, while ~20% SO2 emissions decline countered this for overall minimal temperature effect.

    • Piers M. Forster
    • , Harriet I. Forster
    • , Mat J. Evans
    • , Matthew J. Gidden
    • , Chris D. Jones
    • , Christoph A. Keller
    • , Robin D. Lamboll
    • , Corinne Le Quéré
    • , Joeri Rogelj
    • , Deborah Rosen
    • , Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
    • , Thomas B. Richardson
    • , Christopher J. Smith
    •  & Steven T. Turnock

  • Article |

    Detecting a human role in a given year of extreme glacier mass loss is difficult at regional scales. Event attribution methods estimate that two extreme mass-loss years in the New Zealand Southern Alps, 2011 and 2018, were at least six and ten times more likely with anthropogenic climate warming.

    • Lauren J. Vargo
    • , Brian M. Anderson
    • , Ruzica Dadić
    • , Huw J. Horgan
    • , Andrew N. Mackintosh
    • , Andrew D. King
    •  & Andrew M. Lorrey

  • Article |

    Warming harms public health in Chinese cities directly via heat and indirectly by worsening air quality. Climate and epidemiological models estimate that reducing aerosols in a warmer climate can enhance atmospheric ventilation, reduce particulate matter exposure and offset warming-driven deaths.

    • Chaopeng Hong
    • , Qiang Zhang
    • , Yang Zhang
    • , Steven J. Davis
    • , Xin Zhang
    • , Dan Tong
    • , Dabo Guan
    • , Zhu Liu
    •  & Kebin He

  • Article |

    Climate warming over Canada drives glacier retreat and threatens water resources in regions that rely on downstream meltwater. Streamflow and climate data are combined with a municipal water source database to identify Alberta communities whose water supply would be most impacted by glacier retreat.

    • Sam Anderson
    •  & Valentina Radić