Articles in 2023

Ice melt processes that take place at the ice–ocean boundary of Greenland and Antarctic glaciers play a pivotal role in their evolution and contribution to sea-level rise, but widespread observations in these regions are lacking. A major observational initiative will be necessary to drastically reduce uncertainties in projections and better prepare society for sea-level rise.

Changes in air temperature are usually considered for quantifying changes in temperature extremes such as heatwaves. This study shows that the incidence of heat extremes in soils is increasing faster than air temperature in some regions, with implications for hydrological and biogeochemical processes.

Establishment of the loss and damage fund is a major step in climate negotiations for Global South countries, yet resource allocation remains unsettled. This Review shows how vulnerability-based approaches are variable and complex, with the adoption of quantitative measures likely to bring division.

The decarbonization of the global iron and steel industry is important for energy systems mitigation. Using a facility-level database, this Article presents cost-effective, region-specific strategies targeting plants with a large age-to-capacity ratio and/or high emissions intensity.

An insight into the global patterns of marine heatwaves from the surface to depths of 2,000 m reveals that subsurface events are more intense and long-lasting than surface ones. Biodiversity exposure to the effects of marine heatwaves is higher at depths of 50–250 m, suggesting that subsurface biodiversity could be at considerable risk.

Net-zero pledges are emerging around the world, but to be consequential they must compel credibility as a core objective of climate policy design. This paper proposes an approach, named backward induction, that aims to maximize policy credibility by balancing building commitment and cost efficiency.

In this Perspective, the authors highlight the potential of animal-borne sensors to overcome common limitations of traditional climate measurements. Animal-borne sensors can provide fine-grained and ecologically relevant sampling, and tagged animals could function as environmental sentinels worldwide.

Recent decades have seen the increasing frequency of multiyear La Niña events. Here the authors find that there are two different types of multiyear La Niña that are each linked to different mechanisms related to warming in the western equatorial Pacific.

The authors estimate the intensity, duration and number of global marine heatwaves from 1993 to 2019, from the surface to 2,000 m. They show generally higher intensity of marine heatwaves at 50–200 m, but increased duration with depth, and predict ocean regions of higher biodiversity exposure.

Better integration of climate action and sustainable development can help enhance the ambition of the next nationally determined contributions, as well as implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Governments should use this year as an opportunity to emphasize the links between climate and sustainable development.

A multi-model analysis shows that the incorporation of advances in damage functions — namely growth effects — substantially increases the social cost estimates of methane and nitrous oxide, although uncertainty remains.

Oxygen concentrations are a key aspect of water quality, with low levels linked to ecosystem stress. Research indicates that oxygen levels will decrease in hundreds of rivers across the USA and Central Europe under climate change.

Non-state actors play an essential role in the fabric of global climate governance. Here we propose four tailored strategies that non-state actors can mobilize to advance climate action among states and harness the potential of the global stocktake.

The global stocktake seeks to enhance climate ambition through assessment and review of collective efforts every five years. A recent breakthrough in finance for addressing loss and damage is an opportunity to strengthen the finance agenda and rebuild much needed trust in the multilateral system.

Warming waters in a changing climate have led to declining oxygen levels in oceans and lakes; the impact on rivers has been less clear. This study shows that widespread deoxygenation in rivers in the United States and Central Europe may accelerate under climate change and influence water quality.

Climate policy requires proenvironment attitudes and voting by the public in democracies, yet economic conditions can impact such perceptions and behaviour. Higher exposure to globalization can lead to lower support for environmentalist parties and more climate scepticism.

Non-CO₂ emissions, including methane and nitrous oxide, are non-negligible contributors to global warming. A multimodel analysis incorporating recent advances in damage functions shows that the social cost of these greenhouse gases would increase substantially, although uncertainty remains.

Emission savings from three circular economy strategies aiming to close, slow and narrow China’s bulk material loops have been analysed using an integrated model. This analysis highlights that material recycling delivers substantial emission cuts, but demand reduction is equally crucial for decarbonizing bulk materials.

Upslope migration is a recognized climate change response, but which traits support this migration is unclear. The authors use a global dataset of 807 insect species—flying and non-flying—to show that lagging upslope migration in terrestrial animals may be linked to oxygen demands.