Articles in 2022

A myriad of aquatic animals migrate daily across strong depth-related temperature and oxygen gradients. Now, research shows that these vertical migrators are particularly sensitive to temperature gradients and that cold waters currently impose an energetic barrier to latitudinal range expansion that may be released under climate change.

The authors establish machine learning models to identify multifactor tipping points of global marine phytoplankton. They show that temperature and carbon dioxide dominate risks, and project crossing tipping points in tropical area production (50%) and resistance (41%) by 2100 under high emissions.

The authors report on the metabolic sensitivities of vertically migrating oceanic species to temperature and oxygen. They show that cold, rather than warmth, acts as an energetic barrier to these species, facilitating latitudinal range expansion under changing climate.

Climate change will impact agriculture, and this study shows cropping frequency and caloric yield are negatively impacted on the global scale by warming. While cold regions will increase cropping frequency, warm regions will see greater decreases, resulting in an overall decline in production.

Nearly two years into the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science, research, including some featured in this month’s issue, shows that there is still a wealth of scientific secrets to uncover in the ocean depths.

Our global oceans are already experiencing the effects of a changing climate, including marine heatwaves, species redistributions and increased human–wildlife conflict. Now, researchers use acoustic surveys to project risk for one of the least understood and most abundant habitats on Earth, the ocean’s mesopelagic zone.

Western boundary currents are narrow, fast-moving ocean flows that are experiencing rapid warming under climate change. Using satellite observations and high-resolution model simulations, two studies now find that this rapid warming is primarily induced by poleward-intensifying ocean eddies.

Demand for aviation will increase by 2–3-fold by 2050. Nonetheless, 90% decarbonization compared with 2019 can be achieved by continued efficiency gains in aircraft and operations, and by the use of ultra-green fuels derived from biomass or clean electricity. Achieving this decarbonization goal will require an increase in airfares of up to approximately 15%.

The authors investigate the mechanism underlying the multigenerational resilience of a copepod to ocean acidification. They demonstrate that recovery of negative reproductive impacts is linked to epigenetic changes and highlight the need to consider plasticity in estimating future vulnerabilities.

Anthropogenic changes in ocean eddies are difficult to distinguish from natural variability due to short satellite records. Here model projections show a poleward shift and intensification of eddy kinetic energy in most eddy-rich regions; however, Gulf Stream eddy activity decreases.

Decarbonization of the aviation sector is difficult due to increasing demand and the current lack of scalable mitigation technologies. This Analysis examines pathways towards a net-zero aviation system with improved fuel and aircraft technologies, efficiency gains and contrail avoidance.

Observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere western boundary currents (WBCs) is still under debate. Here poleward shifts, associated with changes in the mid-latitude easterly winds, of the WBCs, not strengthening, are found to drive enhanced eddy generation and ocean warming in their extensions.

The authors use daily data to understand current thermal conditions across ocean depths and project changes under various future scenarios. They show varying responses in thermal range shifts on the basis of depth, highlighting complexities in predicting marine life habitat under global change.

The authors compile an underwater sonar database to understand the current and future distribution of pelagic fauna in the world’s oceans. They show loss of 3–22% of these fauna in low and mid latitudes under high-emissions scenarios, with impact reduced to less than half if global warming is contained below 2 °C.

Recent recognition of the human right to a healthy environment by the United Nations can facilitate a shift in climate policy and shape climate litigation. Now, a recent study discusses these benefits and the potential to assist social movements in garnering political pressure towards stronger climate action.

Wealthy countries failed to meet their US$100 billion climate finance pledge, and research now suggests that they may be further away from their goal than previously thought. Machine coding of finance projects may help settle the debate and could be part of a more rigorous tracking system.