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Climate change impacts the vertical structure of marine ecosystem thermal ranges

Nature Climate Change volume 12, pages 935–942 (2022)Cite this article

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Abstract

Temperature drives global ocean patterns of biodiversity, shaping thermal niches through thresholds of thermal tolerance. Global warming is predicted to change thermal range bounds, yet research has primarily focused on temperature at the sea surface, while knowledge of changes through the depths of the water column is lacking. Here, using daily observations from ocean sites and model simulations, we track shifts in ocean temperatures, focusing on the emergence of thermal ranges whose future lower bounds exceed current upper bounds. These emerge below 50 m depth as early as ~2040 with high anthropogenic emissions, yet are delayed several decades for reduced emission scenarios. By 2100, concomitant changes in both lower and upper boundaries can expose pelagic ecosystems to thermal environments never experienced before. These results suggest the redistribution of marine species might differ across depth, highlighting a much more complex picture of the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems.

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Fig. 1: Overview of the OS stations.
Fig. 2: Profiles of thermal ranges.
Fig. 3: Emergence of climate change signals in thermal ranges.
Fig. 4: End-of-the-century thermal ranges.

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Data availability

Interpolated data presented in the paper can be accessed via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6940283.

Code availability

All code used in the current study is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme with the TRIATLAS project under the grant agreement number 817578 (Y.S.-F. and R.S.), the COMFORT project under the grant agreement number 820989 (Y.S.-F. and R.S.) and the ESM2025 project under the grant agreement number 101003536 (R.S.). The work reflects only the authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains. We thank L. Kwiatkowski, S. Berthet and E. Sánchez for comments on pre-submission drafts of the manuscript.

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  1. CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

    Yeray Santana-Falcón & Roland Séférian

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Y.S.-F. and R.S. conceived the study, developed the datasets, performed the computations and wrote the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Yeray Santana-Falcón.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Observed and simulated daily temperature across the six stations.

Depth-time plots of daily ocean temperature anomalies from the surface to 1000 m. Anomalies are computed for the full observational records by removing the daily climatological temperature to daily temperature. They are indicated for both observations and CNRM-ESM2-1. The observational mask in space and time is applied to model data. Red/blue colours indicate warmer/cooler daily temperature variations with respect to the daily climatological temperature. Profiles of the full observational period are given for both observations (orange) and the model ensemble mean (black). Fifteen model ensemble members are also included (grey). Blank space indicates lack of observational data.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Thermal range developments in response to climate change.

Schematics of possible developments of thermal ranges as a consequence of concomitant changes in their lower (Tmin) and upper (Tmax) bounds in response to climate change. Both changes that reduce or increase the upper or lower limit, or changes in both, will perturb the thermal range. These changes can either expand, contract, or shift it toward cooling or warming, possibly leading to a redistribution or collapse of the original marine habitat. Colour code refers to those shown in Fig. 4.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Profiles of thermal range boundaries and detected trends at each station.

Profiles of lower and upper boundaries of the thermal range are presented with anomalies of Tmin (bluish colours) and Tmax (reddish colours) relative to temperature mean over the period of available observations as simulated by CNRM-ESM2-1, respectively. Dashed lines demarcate the upper epipelagic, lower epipelagic and mesopelagic layers. Within these layers, numbers indicate mean trends per decade as derived from observations (grey) and as simulated by the model (black). Only significant trends with respect to internal climate variability are shown. Positive (negative) values indicate warming (cooling) trends.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Probability density function (pdf) of trends for Tmin (a) and Tmax (b) over the observational period for each station.

Trends are estimated from a 100 randomly selected observational period-long time series of the piControl simulation. The pdf over upper epipelagic, lower epipelagic and mesopelagic layers are displayed in blue. Trends derived from observations (orange) and simulated by the model (black) during the observational period are given with vertical lines. Empirical p-value as derived from the comparison of the observed and modelled trends against the distribution of the piControl trends are presented in Supplementary Table 3.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Examples of Tmin- and Tmax-based ToE computations at the station HOT-01.

(a) Examples of the computation of the timing for which future Tmin will be warmer than the current Tmidpoint. At each depth level, ToE is considered as the year at which a spline for the simulation (1990 to 2100) time series of Tmin surpasses the mean of a spline ± climate variability for the current period (1990 to 2020) Tmidpoint. SSP5-8.5 is considered in this example. Climate variability is considered as the 5th and 95th percentiles of a 100 randomly selected 30 years period time series of Tmidpoint as simulated by fifteen samples of the piControl simulation. (b) Examples of the computation of the timing for which future Tmin will be warmer than the current Tmax. At each depth level, ToE is considered as the year at which a spline for the simulation (1990 to 2100) time series of Tmin surpasses the mean of a spline ± climate variability for the current period (1990 to 2020) Tmax. SSP5-8.5 is considered in this example. Climate variability is considered as the 5th and 95th percentiles of a 100 randomly selected 30 years period time series of Tmax as simulated by fifteen samples of the piControl simulation. (c) Examples of the computation of the timing for which future Tmax emerges from current natural variability. At each depth level, ToE is considered as the year at which a spline for the simulation (1990 to 2100) time series of Tmax surpasses the mean of a spline + climate variability for the current period (1990 to 2020) Tmax. SSP5-8.5 is considered in this example. Climate variability is considered as twice the standard deviation of a 100 randomly selected 30 years period time series of Tmax as simulated by fifteen samples of the piControl simulation.

Extended Data Fig. 6 End-of-the-century thermal ranges resulting from concomitant changes in their lower and upper bounds in response to climate change considering SSP5-8.5.

Profiles illustrate temperature anomalies for Tmin and Tmax with respect to the mean over last years of the historical simulation (1990 to 2014) for the historical (1990 to 2014) and end-of-the-century (2080 to 2100) periods. Reddish (bluish) shading areas indicate ocean layers where end-of-the-century Tmin and Tmax are warmer (cooler) than the historical counterparts. Numbers indicate their anomalies (in °C). Climate Novelty profiles are given in the right-hand sided boxes. Dashed lines demarcate the upper epipelagic, lower epipelagic and mesopelagic layers.

Extended Data Fig. 7 End-of-the-century number of days and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) anomalies with respect to historical period.

MHWs anomalies are computed as the difference between the end-of-the-century (2080 to 2100) and the historical period (1990 to 2014) number of days (a) and maximum intensity (b). Differences are given for upper epipelagic, lower epipelagic and mesopelagic waters. High (SSP5-8.5), moderate (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) emission scenarios are displayed.

Extended Data Fig. 8 End-of-the-century thermal ranges resulting from concomitant changes in their lower and upper bounds in response to climate change considering SSP2-4.5.

Profiles illustrate temperature anomalies for Tmin and Tmax with respect to the mean over last years of the historical simulation (1990 to 2014) for the historical (1990 to 2014) and end-of-the-century (2080 to 2100) periods. Reddish (bluish) shading areas indicate ocean layers where end-of-the-century Tmin and Tmax are warmer (cooler) than the historical counterparts. Numbers indicate their anomalies (in °C). Climate Novelty profiles are given in the right-hand sided boxes. Dashed lines demarcate the upper epipelagic, lower epipelagic and mesopelagic layers.

Extended Data Fig. 9 End-of-the-century thermal ranges resulting from concomitant changes in their lower and upper bounds in response to climate change considering SSP1-2.6.

Profiles illustrate temperature anomalies for Tmin and Tmax with respect to the mean over last years of the historical simulation (1990 to 2014) for the historical (1990 to 2014) and end-of-the-century (2080 to 2100) periods. Reddish (bluish) shading areas indicate ocean layers where end-of-the-century Tmin and Tmax are warmer (cooler) than the historical counterparts. Numbers indicate their anomalies (in °C). Climate Novelty profiles are given in the right-hand sided boxes. Dashed lines demarcate the upper epipelagic, lower epipelagic and mesopelagic layers.

Extended Data Fig. 10 Maps of the changes in thermal ranges at the end of the century resulting from concomitant changes in both lower and upper boundaries.

These maps provide a geographical representation of the right hand sided boxes as shown in Fig. 4 for the high (SSP5-8.5), moderate (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) emission scenarios. Changes in thermal ranges are averaged for the upper epipelagic, lower epipelagic, and mesopelagic layers, consistently with Fig. 4.

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Supplementary Information

Supplementary Discussion, Figs. 1–7 and Tables 1–3.

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Santana-Falcón, Y., Séférian, R. Climate change impacts the vertical structure of marine ecosystem thermal ranges. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 935–942 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01476-5

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