Articles in 2016

Analysis of the US’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) shows additional policies are likely to be needed for it to meet its promised emissions reduction target, and highlights where deeper cuts could be made.

Aquifer characteristics and water use data for 43 widely distributed small island states indicate that 44% are in a state of water stress. While recharge is projected to increase on 12 islands it is projected to decrease by up to 58% on the other 31.

The use of natural high-CO₂ sites to assess the impact of ocean acidification on coral reef zooplankton shows a threefold reduction in biomass compared with ambient-CO₂ sites. However, zooplankton species distribution is unchanged. The reduction may be partly due to a change in coral species.

Climate change is expected to lead to significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and endemism at a continental scale in Australia, threatening the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypt trees that dominate much of the continent.

Assessment of the emergence of novel climatic combinations, rapid displacement of climatic isoclines, and divergence between temperature and precipitation trends provides an indication of where and why novel communities are likely to emerge.

The impact of climate change on crop yield can be estimated using a variety of methods. Here, a multi-method ensemble is used to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ and improve overall confidence in projections of climate impacts on wheat yields.

Remote sensing of tropical forest activity indicates that temporal autocorrelation—an indicator of slow recovery from stress—rises steeply as precipitation falls sufficiently. This offers some support for a tipping point for forest collapse.

During periods of hydrologic stress, vegetation productivity is limited by soil moisture supply and atmospheric water demand. This study shows that atmospheric demand has a greater effect in many biomes, with implications for climate change impacts.

Natural multidecadal climate variability contributes to global mean surface temperature trends. This study quantifies those from the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, finding that the largest contributions are during the positive phase, which accelerates warming.

Application of a terrestrial biogeochemical model that simulates diverse forest communities suggests that plant trait diversity may enable the Amazon rainforest to adjust to new climate conditions via a process of ecological sorting.

Popular culture reflects both the interests of and the issues affecting the general public. As concerns regarding climate change and its impacts grow, is it permeating into popular culture and reaching that global audience?

Earth's surface gained 115,000 km² of water and 173,000 km² of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km² of water and 33,700 km² of land in coastal areas. Here, we analyse the gains and losses through the Deltares Aqua Monitor — an open tool that detects land and water changes around the globe.

Some Pacific Island communities are already moving themselves beyond rising tides, but there's nothing simple about how, why or when they're doing it.