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An actor-centered, risk-based approach to defining limits to social adaptation provides a useful analytic framing for identifying and anticipating these limits and informing debates over society's responses to climate change.
Research combining the analysis of coral distribution in volcanically acidified waters with laboratory culture experiments indicates that reef communities may shift from reef-building hard corals to non-reef-building soft corals under CO2 partial pressure () levels of 550–970 μatm that are predicted to occur by the end of this century.
Climate change studies rarely yield consensus on the probability distribution of exposure, vulnerability, or possible outcomes, and therefore the evaluation of alternative policy strategies is difficult. This Perspective highlights the importance of decision-making tools designed for situations where generally agreed-upon probability distributions are not available and stakeholders show different degrees of risk tolerance.
Has the frequency of ‘extreme weather events’ changed with climate warming over the last century? Using hourly precipitation records from thirteen sites, this study finds no evidence for significant changes in mean ‘storminess’ across the United States.
Estimating the probable magnitude of future sea-level rise under global warming is complicated by a limited understanding of long-term ice-sheet dynamics. This study presents a probabilistic approach for assessing upper bounds on twenty-first-century Antarctic ice-sheet loss, and its effect on sea level.
Pronounced increases in winter temperature result in lower seasonal temperature differences, with implications for vegetation seasonality and productivity. Research now indicates that temperature and vegetation seasonality in northern ecosystems have diminished to an extent equivalent to a southerly shift of 4°– 7° in latitude, and may reach the equivalent of up to 20° over the twenty-first century.
The Walker circulation is a large overturning cell that spans the tropical Pacific Ocean. Fluctuations in this circulation reflect changes in tropical heating, and have global impacts on temperature and precipitation. Analysis of trends in sea-level pressure from ten data sets reveals strengthening of the Walker circulation in line with increasing global temperature, which is counter to current model predictions.
Biomaterial function depends on biological, chemical and environmental factors during formation and subsequent use. Ocean acidification has been shown to affect secreted calcium carbonate, but effects on other biomaterials are less well known. Research now reveals that proteinaceous byssal threads—used to anchor mytilid mussels to hard substrates—exhibited reduced mechanical performance when secreted under elevated conditions.
Current thinking on the causes of anthropogenic radiative forcing in the lower atmosphere is misleading. This study finds tropospheric ozone-precursor emissions have contributed more to positive forcing, and halocarbons more to negative forcing, than previously thought.
Climate change has the potential to disrupt marine habitats and food webs. Targeted multidisciplinary research reveals how this is likely to affect the contributions of fisheries and aquaculture to the food security and economies of Pacific islands.
Statistical analysis of maize yields in the United States reveals a strong negative response to very high temperatures, and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Now simulations using a process-based model suggest that the most important effects of extreme heat are associated with increased vapour-pressure deficit—which contributes to water stress—rather than direct heat stress on reproductive organs.
The influence of relatively slow changes in sea surface temperature on regional climate variability can provide a basis for medium-term (seasonal to decadal) prediction of many environmental factors. Research now shows that the sea surface temperature in the tropical South Atlantic can act as a dominant driver of rainfall variability, and hence outbreaks of malaria in northwest India.
After recent events in Japan and the Indian Ocean, the world is alert to the risk posed by earthquake-generated tsunamis. A team of scientists are now seeking to understand a rarer type of tsunami caused by huge underwater landslides, and determine whether climate change might affect their frequency. Project leader Peter Talling, of the National Oceanography Centre, talks to Nature Climate Change.
