Change in the Amazon

Deforestation and climate change threaten social and ecological well-being in Amazonia. Research co-produced through ethical collaborations across multiple knowledge systems can contribute toward just and sustainable futures for the region.

Careful management of deforested Amazonian land cannot replace, but must complement, efforts to preserve the rainforest. Sustainable agricultural practices that promote diverse uses can help minimise impacts on climate and environment.

The Brazilian Amazon was a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source between 2010 and 2020 due to increasing human-induced disturbance and drought, suggest bottom-up and top-down estimates of land carbon fluxes.

Despite devastating global impacts, a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with global warming could lead to cooler and wetter conditions in parts of Amazonia and less rainforest conversion, according to an analysis of climate observations and model projections for the 21st century.

Fire reduces the area of Amazon forest regrowth after forest dieback due to deforestation by between 56 and 82%, according to an analysis of fire-enabled Earth system model simulations driven by scenarios of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Steep river valleys in the Amazon lowlands exhibit more intense and frequent fog and low-level clouds in broader drought conditions and could contribute to forest ecosystems’ resilience to climate change, suggests an analysis of fog and low stratus frequency data.

Biomass combustion smoke transported from Africa accounts for about 60% of black carbon concentrations in the central Amazon during the rainy season, according to long-term measurements of refractory black carbon in 2019 and 2020

Deforestation rates on private land within conservation areas have declined since policy implementation in 2012, but not as quickly as in all conservation areas, suggests an analysis of 4 million private properties from the Brazilian rural environmental cadastre between 2003 and 2020.

More than 15 million cases of respiratory and cardiovascular infections could be prevented, saving $2 billion USD each year in human health costs by protecting indigenous lands in the Brazilian Amazon, suggest estimates of PM2.5 health impacts between 2010 and 2019.

Biophysical and biogeochemical effects of forest degradation cause comparable temperature increases in tropical rainforests, according to analyses of high-resolution satellite observations.

Food exports impact biodiversity in countries directly involved in trading and beyond. This study calculates food trade flows among high-hotspot, low-hotspot and non-hotspot countries, including high- and low-income ones, over 2000–2018. The amount of land saved through the imports is calculated for 189 food items.

Wetlands dominate methane emissions in Amazonia, with the largest emissions in the east but no discernible temporal trend, according to nine years of atmospheric methane observations across Amazonia.

Complete savannization of the Amazon Basin would enhance the effects of climate change on local heat exposure and pose a risk to human health, according to climate model projections.

Substitution of food produce from declining wild fisheries with farmed species may exacerbate prevalent micronutrient deficiencies in regions such as the urban Peruvian Amazon, as well as negatively impact agricultural land use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Long-term experimental drought in the Amazon rain forest leads to shifts in soil fungal community composition, soil enzyme activities that indicate nitrogen limitation, and an increase in the relative abundance of drought-resistant dark septate fungi.

Disentangling the impacts of anti-deforestation interventions from other conservation efforts remains a challenge. An econometric analysis of remotely sensed data reveals the efficacy of the Soy Moratorium in the Brazilian Arc of Deforestation and the extent to which its success relies on complementary policies.

The election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (‘Lula’) as president of Brazil on 30 October 2022 marked the end of the populist Bolsonaro era. In this Feature, five Brazilian scientists discuss their hopes and expectations for the new presidency and its scientific policies.

Analysis of satellite-based data on recovering degraded and secondary forests in three tropical moist forest regions quantifies the amount of aboveground carbon accumulated, which counterbalanced one quarter of carbon emissions from old-growth forest loss between 1984 and 2018.

A large proportion of recent Brazilian Amazon deforestation is occurring on untitled public forestlands through land grabbing. This emerging risk demands long-term conservation strategies. Here we propose prioritizing land tenure security, technological improvement, and law enforcement.

The most-at-risk habitats for jaguars in the Brazilian Amazon are identified and anthropogenic factors including deforestation and agriculture are highlighted as root causes of this habitat destruction.

The authors link the frequency of convective storms in the Amazon basin to the density of large forest mortality events (windthrows) and project an increase in forest disturbance from these dynamics due to climate warming over this century.

The Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) has Earth’s largest tropical rainforest and a history of tension around its fate. Between 2001 and 2018, this study finds that Indigenous territories and protected areas in the BLA have expanded and reduced deforestation markedly, with some gains eroded in recent areas.

Vast areas of the Amazon forest have been lost to agriculture in recent decades. This study assesses the potential of intensification—increasing yields on a given area—to produce more soybean in Brazil without further Amazon forest loss and to reduce existing CO₂ emissions.

How land-tenure regimes affect deforestation remains ambiguous. This study shows how deforestation in Brazil is land-tenure dependent, and how strategies to effectively reduce deforestation can range from strengthening poorly defined rights to strengthening conservation-focused regimes.

It is unclear how far the impact of deforestation can spread. Here the authors analyse freshwater eDNA data along two rivers in the Amazon forest, and find that low levels of deforestation are linked to substantial reductions of fish and mammalian diversity downstream.

Tropical peatlands hold around 105 gigatonnes of carbon but are increasingly affected by anthropogenic activities. This Review describes the biogeochemistry of these systems and how deforestation, fire, drainage and agriculture are disturbing them.

Soybean and maize yields in the Amazon-Cerrado region of Brazil are dependent on water from rain. Warming and drying will make the climate less suitable for agricultural production; changes have already moved 28% of croplands out of their optimum climate space.

Carbon loss from forests occurs through deforestation or the degradation of existing forest. The loss of forest area in the Brazilian Amazon was higher in 2019 than following drought and an El Niño event in 2015, yet degradation drove three times more biomass loss than deforestation from 2010 to 2019.

Deforestation and reforestation cause dramatic changes to tropical ecosystems, including underlying soil properties and their corresponding ecosystem services. In this Review, the impacts of this land-use change on soils and their functions are discussed.

Analysing global high-resolution three-dimensional maps of forest structure, the authors show that only half of the world’s remaining moist tropical forest has both high structural integrity and low human pressure, and they outline a framework for its conservation and restoration.