Forslund et al. used a global biomass model, adjusted for livestock feed parameters, to explore food supplies in 21 world regions and 33 agri-food products. They identified that achieving healthy diets in 2050 without further farmland expansion would not be possible in several parts of the world, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa due to pastureland needs, India, parts of Asia, Near- and Middle-East countries and North Africa, as well as West Africa. Several would require food net imports due to limited cultivable land availabilities in the case of ‘moderate’ yield growth. At the global level, cropland needs would be five times higher for plant-based dietary components than for animal components, except in sub-Saharan Africa, where pastureland needs would increase by more than 300% in 2050 based on the assumption that per capita consumption of red meat and dairy products would be associated with regional population growth.
Overall, avoiding farmland expansion appears technically impossible in several regions, even when technological developments are considered. Pastureland needs would be high in several world regions and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, even in scenarios that assumed grazing intensity increases, feed efficiency improvements, the substitution of red meat with white meat in healthy diets, and exogenous increases in import shares for dairy products, beef meat and meat of small ruminants. Forslund et al. note that other action levers must be utilized, for example, by sustainably increasing crop yields, irrigated areas and cropping intensities, increasing the share of concentrated feeds and quality forages in livestock rations, reducing food waste and losses, and targeting encouraging regional dietary changes with lower animal protein consumption and greater plant-based protein consumption.
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