Xie and colleagues combined high-resolution data on crop-specific yields, harvested areas, environmental footprints and farmer incomes to assess scenarios incorporating varying levels of inter-ministerial and central crop switching coordination. The authors found that siloed efforts by individual ministries could lead to substantial trade-offs for other sustainability outcomes and work at counter-purposes to the goals of other ministries. Central coordination can address these trade-offs, with co-benefits for environmental-impact reductions (blue water (−4.5% to −18.5%), green water (−4.4% to −9.5%), greenhouse gases (−1.7% to −7.7%), fertilizers (−5.2% to −10.9%), pesticides (−4.3% to −10.8%)) and increased farmer incomes (+2.9% to +7.5%). Regional changes in the distributions of specific crops could lead to positive outcomes for several sustainability dimensions without compromising national food production or requiring more cropland. In addition, farmers’ personal incomes could increase by +2.9% to +7.5% from non-agricultural industries and high-value-added agricultural activities related to crop switching.
Additional benefits could be realized for global resource savings, for example, through increased soybean production cascading through the global trade network. Xie and colleagues note that support for farmers in adopting new cropping choices will be essential for supporting the transition towards crop switching. The integrated approach examined by Xie and colleagues provides actionable, science-based evidence that the Chinese government can use to implement crop switching — and it highlights the importance of interdisciplinary approaches to improving farmer incomes, agricultural sustainability and food security.
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