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Designing a circular carbon and plastics economy for a sustainable future

Nature volume 626, pages 45–57 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

The linear production and consumption of plastics today is unsustainable. It creates large amounts of unnecessary and mismanaged waste, pollution and carbon dioxide emissions, undermining global climate targets and the Sustainable Development Goals. This Perspective provides an integrated technological, economic and legal view on how to deliver a circular carbon and plastics economy that minimizes carbon dioxide emissions. Different pathways that maximize recirculation of carbon (dioxide) between plastics waste and feedstocks are outlined, including mechanical, chemical and biological recycling, and those involving the use of biomass and carbon dioxide. Four future scenarios are described, only one of which achieves sufficient greenhouse gas savings in line with global climate targets. Such a bold system change requires 50% reduction in future plastic demand, complete phase-out of fossil-derived plastics, 95% recycling rates of retrievable plastics and use of renewable energy. It is hard to overstate the challenge of achieving this goal. We therefore present a roadmap outlining the scale and timing of the economic and legal interventions that could possibly support this. Assessing the service lifespan and recoverability of plastic products, along with considerations of sufficiency and smart design, can moreover provide design principles to guide future manufacturing, use and disposal of plastics.

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Fig. 1: The circular carbon and plastics life cycle.
Fig. 2: Plastic industry scenarios and GHG emissions for 2050 based on an estimated global production of 1.1 Gt.
Fig. 3: The impacts of smart design, service lifespan and recoverability in the carbon footprint of plastics.
Fig. 4: Interventions roadmap for a bold-system-change scenario.

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Acknowledgements

The Oxford Martin School (‘Future of Plastics’, C.K.W., all authors), European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Marie Skłodowska-Curie no. 101018516) (F.V.), EPSRC (EP/S018603/1; EP/R027129/1; EP/V038117/1) (C.K.W.) and Research England (iCAST, RED, RE-P-2020-04) (C.K.W.) are acknowledged for funding.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Chemistry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Fernando Vidal, Ryan W. F. Kerr, Gloria Rosetto, Thomas T. D. Chen & Charlotte K. Williams

  2. POLYMAT, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Donostia-San Sebastian, Spain

    Fernando Vidal

  3. Faculty of Law, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Eva R. van der Marel & Catherine Redgwell

  4. Faculty of Law, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway

    Eva R. van der Marel

  5. Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Caitlin McElroy, Nadia Schroeder, Celia Mitchell & Cameron Hepburn

  6. School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Richard M. Bailey

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Contributions

C.K.W., C.H. and C.R. conceived the idea for the paper. F.V., E.R.v.d.M., R.W.F.K., C. McElroy and N.S. conducted the research and led the writing of the manuscript, with further contributions from all the other authors. All authors approved submission of the article for publication.

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Correspondence to Cameron Hepburn, Catherine Redgwell or Charlotte K. Williams.

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Supplementary Information

This Supplementary Information file contains the following five sections: (1) Supporting Materials for Modelled Scenarios of the Plastic Industry in 2050; (2) GHG Emissions Calculations and Assumptions; (3) Supplementary Information of Economic Challenges in Section 3; (4) Supplementary Information of Legal Concepts in Section 3; and (5) Supporting Materials for Scenario Roadmaps. It includes one Supplementary Figure, 22 Supplementary Tables and Supplementary References.

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Vidal, F., van der Marel, E.R., Kerr, R.W.F. et al. Designing a circular carbon and plastics economy for a sustainable future. Nature 626, 45–57 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06939-z

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